Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

Key Messages:

1. Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Hail up to 2" or larger and damaging wind gusts are
possible.

2. Potential for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening,
but with limited confidence.

2. An active weather pattern will remain across the area this week
with several chances for rain. It will not rain during the entire
period but rain chances will occur at times each day. A few
strong storms will be possible.

3. Above normal temperatures will occur this week.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

Convection is already initiating along the front this afternoon.
Expect rapid development given 4,000-5,000 J/kg of SBCAPE,
including substantial instability in the hail growth zone thanks
to steep (8-9 C/km) lapse rates aloft. Effective bulk shear on the
order of 35-45 kts is mostly unidirectional, which will promote
splitting cells and upscale growth of cells and clusters. The
majority of severe storms will initially have a 1.5-2 inch hail
threat, with the strongest and longest lived having a threat for
greater than 2 inches. Over time, as storms grow upscale, the
damaging wind threat will become more dominant. Given poor
directional shear and minimal low level shear, the tornado threat
is very low.

Storms development is generally along the Highway 54 corridor
right now, but will gradually shift south along with the front
through the evening and into tonight. The severe risk is only
expected to last until late evening and should subside by midnight
or earlier.

Overnight, the front looks to set up over or near the southwestern
CWA (oriented northwest to southeast). Some isolated to perhaps
scattered conditions may occur in the vicinity of the front
overnight into Tuesday, but confidence in the coverage is limited.

Bigger questions come into play for Tuesday as some guidance
shows an MCS moving along the front from Kansas into southwest
Missouri Tuesday afternoon and evening. Confidence in details
surrounding this potential is low given the multiple variables
involved. If the MCS does develop upstream, the extent of severity
will be largely dependent on the evolution of instability during
the day Tuesday. That being said, severe storms with mainly a
damaging wind threat are possible but highly conditional. Overall,
looking for highs in the 80s again with chances for showers and
storms mainly over the southwestern half of the CWA Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

An unsettled pattern will remain over the region this week with
several chances for rain at times. An upper level ridge will
remain over the region through much of the week with warmer
conditions as highs in the 80s occur each day.

An upper level low will move north across the Plains Wednesday
into Thursday and the lift should support showers and storms
across the area at times from Wednesday into the end of the week.
It will not rain the entire period for any given location though
but several chances for rain will occur. The trough will then
move south through area later this weekend into next week bringing
additional rain chances to the area. The trough will also push
the ridge off to the east with highs in the 70s occurring early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

CAMS not inspiring a lot of confidence in storm timing for the TAF
sites. Current convection has rapidly increased in intensity along
the frontal boundary over our northern CWA over the past couple of
hours. Currently very slow movement and visible satellite not
showing much in the way of development further south of the
boundary despite the high instability. So have backed off on any
convection at the TAF sites until after 03z. Have gone with VCTS
at that point and then with some prob30 groups after 09/10z with
the frontal boundary eventually sliding further south into the
forecast area. Outside of any convection, we are expecting
generally VFR conditions, but could see some MVFR and IFR
conditions if convection moves across the TAF site.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Wise/Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg

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