River Flood Warning 30, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring
a severe and flash flood potential to the area. Flood Watch in
effect this afternoon.

2. Drier and cooler weather expected mid week.

3. Stronger system may bring better rain chances by Friday, with
cooler and drier conditions behind its passage for the weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

12z KSGF sounding showed a moist and unstable airmass with
1000j/kg of ML CAPE and a PW value of 1.59in. Surface low pressure
was located across northeast Oklahoma with a stationary front
draped northeast across southern Missouri. Even higher moisture
content was located just southwest of the area with surface dews
in the lower 70s. Upper level energy across northeast Oklahoma
will move into southwest Missouri this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms have already developed across southwest Missouri
early this afternoon. Expect thunderstorms to increase this
afternoon in coverage and intensity, and will slowly shift into
the eastern ozarks this evening.

Two hazards we are concerned about this afternoon. One is the
flash flood potential. Given the slow mean wind (less than 20kts),
high moisture content and unstable atmosphere, thunderstorms will
likely produce very heavy rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour. The 12z HREF guidance is in strong agreement that a
corridor of 1-3 inches of rainfall will occur near/along the I-44
corridor with the local probability matched mean showing localized
4 inch totals. Latest Warn on Forecast data shows high probs for
greater than 3 inches of rainfall in localized pockets across
southern Missouri. There are several creeks and streams in
elevated flows right now given some previous rains. The National
Water Model also shows some of our local low water crossings
flooding with this rainfall. Any storms that move slowly over
urban areas will also cause flash flooding. Therefore we have
issued a Flood Watch for areas where we are most confident in
heavy rainfall. It should be noted that not all areas will see
these heavy rains but where they do occur, flash flooding is a
possibility.

The other hazard is severe thunderstorms. While wind shear will
remain low, instability will increase close to 2000/j/kg this
afternoon. Theta E Differentials near 25C and a high PW
atmosphere will be prime for single to multicell thunderstorms
with damaging winds to 60 mph the most likely hazard. Given the
warm air aloft, hail will likely be confined to 1 inch or less. A
frontal boundary will be located over the area therefore the
tornado threat is not zero, but very low (2% chance within 25
miles of a point). Basically a storm would have to develop near
the front and remain there long enough to tap into weak low level
helicity (less than 100m2s2).

Showers will linger into the evening before ending overnight.
Clouds will linger overnight with some light fog potential. Will
need to watch for any stratus build down that could lower
visibilities further. Northerly flow over the plateau will likely
keep low level clouds across the area for most of the day Tuesday
with some light sprinkles/showers at times however most areas will
remain dry. Currently high temps are forecast to reach the upper
60s however they may need lowered further in future updates.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Midweek: Ensembles are in decent agreement that the area will
remain in a drier northwest flow for mid week with rain chances
remaining less than 10 percent. Temperatures in the 70s to near
80 are likely.

Friday: A strong upper level trough looks to push through the
northern US which will drag a cold front through the area during
the day. Showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet at this
time with fairly high pops during the day which is supported by
the ensemble clusters. Confidence is low on any severe/flooding
potential at this time.

Weekend: Surface high pressure settles in for the weekend with
cooler and drier air likely. NBM temperature spreads are small
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the first part of
the TAF period with highest chances for thunderstorms at BBG and
SGF. Ceilings will likely lower into IFR later this evening and
its possible this will last into Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Ceilings may improve to MVFR by late Tuesday evening. Winds will
remain north to northwesterly.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-079>083-
     088>098-101>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1245 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161745-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1245 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage this afternoon
and evening across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas. The
strongest storms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail
to the size of quarters. The tornado threat remains very low, but
not zero, since there will be a front over the area. Frequent
cloud to ground lightning will occur is most storms today.

Locally heavy rainfall will occur with the storms, and will lead
to a localized flash flooding risk where multiple storms affect
the same locations. Several inches of rain may occur in a short
period of time this afternoon and evening in the Flood Watch area.

Some patchy fog will be possible overnight into Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and isolated storms will linger into Tuesday morning.
Additional low rain chances will persist through the week, with
the best chances coming late in the week with a frontal passage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening
across the area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

MOZ082-092-152345-
Wright MO-Texas MO-
607 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Wright
and west central Texas Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 606 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Hartville, or 13 miles northwest of Mountain
Grove, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Grove, Dawson, Hartville, Huggins, Manes, Graff and
Bendavis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 9216 3716 9253 3747 9247 3746 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 210DEG 21KT 3730 9239

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
647 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

MOZ082-160045-
Texas MO-
647 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Texas County
through 745 PM CDT...

At 647 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 19 miles northeast of Hartville to 16 miles
north of Cabool to 9 miles west of Houston to near Mountain Grove.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Licking, Houston, Raymondville, Huggins, Bucyrus, Hazelton, Success,
Yukon, Roby, Solo, Simmons, Prescott and Bendavis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 9188 3714 9225 3749 9225 3760 9199
      3760 9176 3732 9175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 248DEG 23KT 3741 9223 3736 9214 3727 9211 3718
9224

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
817 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW SARCOXIE          37.10N 94.13W
05/15/2023                   JASPER             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
827 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE HOUSTON           37.34N 91.92W
05/15/2023  M2.50 INCH       TEXAS              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            2.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES.

&&

TEO

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