River Flood Warning 3, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
510 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

Key Messages:

1. Light rain/snow chances tonight into Friday morning.

2. After closer to normal temperatures Saturday, Sunday and Monday
look to be above normal and dry.

3. Another active week expected next week from Monday night
through Thursday.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

Low pressure continues to lift northeast into southwest Michigan
early this afternoon and the pressure gradient was beginning to
relax a bit in the western CWA. Still have some scattered to
broken cloud deck in the eastern CWA, but these should also
diminish as the afternoon wears on. Temperatures were in the 40s
across the area with some upper 40s in the west where the clouds
have already cleared. Water vapor imagery shows the upper level
trough from the northern plains southwestward into New Mexico.

This trough will shift eastward tonight, with the best lift
expected to our south and into the far southern portion of
Missouri as the upper level system begins to develop a closed low
near the AR/LA/TX region. The overall trend the past couple of
days has been to shift the main precipitation with this system
southward and that trend has continued today. Some CAMS output are
still showing some mid level banding features over the southwest
quadrant of the CWA, so have kept in some low end pops overnight
into Friday morning, despite the only QPF remaining along the
MO/AR border on Friday morning. Temperatures will also be tricky,
starting out as a chance of light rain, but cold enough aloft to
produce a rain/snow mixture and drag surface temperatures down
closer to freezing. Any snowfall will likely melt as it reaches
the warmer ground temperatures. Most (if any) precipitation that
occurs is expected to end over MO by midday Friday.

Highs on Friday are expected to remain colder than normal, with
temperatures only in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

Warmer and dry Sat - Mon

With the closed low developing, the trough axis will be slower to
move through but should still be southeast of the area by Saturday
morning. Upper level ridging will then shift east into the area
behind the closed low and in advance of the next upper level low
in California. We should start to warm up on Saturday to more
normal readings and then to above normal on Sunday into Monday
ahead of the next low.

Active weather returns Monday night into Thursday
Models in overall agreement with the upper level feature of
bringing the low eastward out of the southwest U.S. and into the
central/southern Rockies on Monday. By Monday evening, we'll see
good southwesterly flow aloft in the area with divergence aloft
over the southern and central plains. As the low tracks into the
plains late Monday night, the better lift ahead of the low will
track into the area and we should start to see rain developing
over the CWA which should linger into Tuesday. Precipitation type
should remain all rain with the thermal profiles and surface
temperatures remaining warm enough for all rain. Highs will be in
the 50s with lows from the upper 30s to low 40s.

As the first low exits to the northeast on Tuesday, the next low
will be diving southeast into the central and southern Rockies
moving into the plains during the day Wednesday and additional
rainfall starting Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday. At
this time, models are showing some big differences with the track
of the lower level low pressure and how quickly the colder air
moves in behind the low. While we can't rule out some wintry
precipitation on the back end of this secondary system as the cold
air moves in, the confidence in any one solution at this point is
low and the predominant precipitation type this far out looks to
be rain.

Windy conditions are expected Tuesday into Thursday with both
systems displaying pretty strong low circulations. Will likely see
winds above 30 mph and potentially over 40 mph with each of these
systems.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 510 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

A low level stratus cloud deck will move south across the area
this evening with MVFR ceilings this evening then lowing into IFR
tonight into Friday morning as a system moves through the area. A
band of light snow or flurries will be possible late tonight into
Friday morning generally in the 10 to 16Z time frame. This snow
should be light with little if any accumulations. Also
temperatures will remain at or above freezing during the snow.
Ceilings will gradually increase during the day on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 PM CST THU FEB 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     FLOOD            2 E ROCKBRIDGE          36.78N 92.37W
02/09/2023                   OZARK              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSING AT BRYANT CREEK
            AND HIGHWAY 95.

&&

SSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
342 PM CST THU FEB 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 AM     FLOOD            4 WNW PRESCOTT          37.46N 91.99W
02/09/2023                   TEXAS              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSING AT HIGHWAY BB AND
            THE BIG PINEY RIVER.

&&

SSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
348 PM CST THU FEB 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 AM     FLOOD            3 SSW COMPETITION       37.44N 92.45W
02/09/2023                   WRIGHT             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSING AT HIGHWAY Z AND
            ELK CREEK.

&&

SSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 PM CST THU FEB 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 AM     FLOOD            4 NNW BRUSHYKNOB        37.01N 92.52W
02/09/2023                   DOUGLAS            MO   PUBLIC

            FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSING AT HIGHWAY U AND
            BRYANT CREEK.

&&

SSL