Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

949 
WWUS83 KSGF 282356
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

KSZ101-MOZ088-093-094-101>103-010100-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230301T0000Z/
Cherokee-Jasper-Newton-Lawrence-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
556 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...

Winds will continue to decrease and relative humidity values will
continue to increase this evening and overnight. Therefore, the
Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1055 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Breezy with Elevated Fire Weather conditions this afternoon.

2. A strong storm system will impact the area Thursday into
Friday. Confidence is increasing on the potential for heavy
rainfall, with lower confidence in Winter weather.

3. Strong wind gusts accompany the system Thursday into Friday.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Today-Tonight: Breezy southwest winds and dry conditions will
give way to some elevated fire conditions this afternoon. Expect
southwest winds to gust at 20 to 25 mph through much of the
afternoon, with afternoon humidities falling into the 30 to 40
percent range. Meanwhile, temperatures rise into the upper 60s to
lower 70s areawide with mostly sunny skies. This is 15 to 20
degrees above normal for late February. For tonight, overnight
lows fall into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Wednesday: The upper-level flow transitions from zonal to
southwesterly. As this happens, a quick moving shortwave moves
through the central CONUS on Wednesday afternoon. This shortwave
and associated low-level frontal boundary will be the focus for
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across our south, with
low end chances sneaking into portions of south central MO. In
general, most of the area should remain dry through Wednesday.
Despite increasing clouds on Wednesday, another mild day can be
expected with highs in the lower to upper 60s.

Thursday-Friday: A strong upper level low digs out of the Desert
Southwest into early Thursday morning. This upper-level low and
associated surface low pressure system will bring impactful
weather to the region. The NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to
highlight that this system will be anomalously strong. Ensemble
guidance is beginning to come into better agreement on the track
of the low pressure system that rapidly develops and tracks across
portions of southern Missouri. The track of the low appears to
slide along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor and would
support heavy rainfall across portions of southern Missouri and
areas south. While there is still some small spread on this exact
track, a few lower confidence scenarios still exist.

The most likely scenario at this time is the potential heavy
rainfall with a rain/snow mix on the back end of system Friday.
This scenario is characterized by an environment that would
support potential excessive rainfall amounts, especially along
and southeast of Interstate 44 corridor. The dynamics of the
system will be supported by a strong upper-level jet in the
vicinity of the left exit region of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet.
NBM probabilities support the heavy rainfall scenario:

Probability of QPF > 1 inch: 70-80%
Probability of QPF > 2 inch: 50-60%
Probability of QPF > 3 inch: 20-30%

The highest probabilities are aligned southeast of the Interstate
44 corridor into portions of the Missouri Bootheel. If this
scenario materializes, flooding will be a concern given
antecedent conditions and dormant vegetation. WPC has outlined
this area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall with a Moderate
Risk bordering our area. If recent trends continue, this may
warrant the Moderate Risk being shifted into portions of south
central MO.

Confidence remains low to medium on a scenario with a further
north low track that would support strong to severe thunderstorms
in addition to the heavy rainfall potential. SPC Day 3 Severe
Weather Outlook aligns with this thought as the Slight and
Enhanced Severe Weather Outlooks remain south of the area. A
Marginal Risk exists into southern Missouri, though instability
remains rather limited in the guidance at this time.

As for the colder and wintry scenario, confidence also remains
relatively low as recent guidance has come into better
agreement. It is worth noting that as cold air filters into the
region on Friday morning as the system departs to the east that
some rain/snow mix remains in the forecast. The focus for some
light snow remains across portions of western and central MO.

Lastly, strong synoptic winds will accompany this system Thursday
into Friday. Confidence is high in the potential for 30 to 40 mph
wind gusts as the system pushes through the area.

Saturday into Early Next Week: Ensemble guidance is an agreement
that zonal flow returns to the region this weekend. This indicates
a return of dry weather along with a warming trend through the
weekend. Above normal temperatures are favored by Sunday into
early next week as highs climb back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF
period. Some Mid to High level clouds will begin to push into the
area overnight as a weak and dry frontal passage pushes through.
Otherwise, breezy conditions are expected today, with south to
southwest surface winds gusting up to 25 knots before tapering off
by 00Z. Behind the frontal passage, winds will shift to a more
north/northeast direction towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Melto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
753 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011400-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
753 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

Southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph and low humidity will result in
elevated fire weather conditions again this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A strong storm system will impact the area Thursday into
Friday. Confidence is increasing on the potential for heavy
rainfall, with lower confidence in winter weather as the system
exits. There will be a low potential for an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm Thursday into Friday. Strong wind gusts of 30
to 40 mph will accompany this system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Terry

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE PIERCE CITY        36.98N 93.95W
02/27/2023                   LAWRENCE           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AN NWS SURVEY REVEALED THAT STRAIGHT-LINE
            WIND GUSTS CAUSED ROOF DAMAGE TO A TURKEY
            FARM. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE MONETT            36.94N 93.88W
02/27/2023                   LAWRENCE           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRAIGHTLINE WINDS CAUSED A BARN TO
            COLLAPSE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MMT