Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Springfield, MO

067 
WGUS73 KSGF 200853
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
353 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

KSC037-200903-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-230920T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford KS-
353 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures. A Flood Warning has been issued for the area until 10AM 
this morning as runoff from the earlier heavy rain could continue 
into the morning hours.

LAT...LON 3767 9502 3767 9487 3756 9479 3734 9463
      3734 9491 3746 9496

$$

EW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
715 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Key Messages:

1. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase across southeast
Kansas and southwest Missouri this evening and spread eastward
overnight.

2. Daily rain chances persist Wednesday into the weekend. Highest
rainfall amounts are expected west of Highway 65. Severe weather
and flooding chances remain very low at this time.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Strengthening shortwave energy with weaker shortwaves embedded in
the overall pattern are combining with isentropic ascent, upper jet
dynamics, and an axis of instability to our west to produce showers
and thunderstorms mainly west of the CWA this afternoon. Thinking
any potential for stronger storms will stay west of the area where
greater instability exists.

As the stronger shortwave energy moves in tonight, models suggest an
MCV developing to our southwest that will gradually move toward or
into the area tonight into Wednesday morning. A LLJ develops on the
east side of the MCV, promoting enhanced convection. Where exactly
that is remains to be seen, but latest CAMs and HREF guidance
suggests greatest coverage and intensity just southwest of the CWA.
Where training convection sets up, flooding potential will exist.
12Z HREF LPMM data shows potential for localized rainfall amounts of
3-5" just southwest of the CWA, so we will need to monitor any
shifts in trends.

The location and track of that MCV will then have big implications
on sensible weather for Wednesday. The 12Z HREF mean generally lifts
this feature northeast through the Missouri Ozarks throughout the
morning and early afternoon before it ends up somewhere across
eastern Missouri by late afternoon. Given that CAMs (and models as a
whole) tend to struggle with the track of MCVs, this scenario may
change.

With this being said, confidence is high that we will see a remnant
area of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms Wednesday morning
across portions of central and southern Missouri. We have gone with
60-80% PoPs Wednesday morning generally along and west of a Lake of
the Ozarks to Theodosia line where confidence is highest in the
track of that MCV. PoPs in this region are then lower for Wednesday
afternoon (20-40%) as that MCV should get east of the area.

Across the eastern Ozarks, PoPs are a bit lower (40-60%) from late
morning into the afternoon given the divergence in MCV tracks
suggested by the 12Z CAMs.

There is a high likelihood that PoPs will need to be adjusted on a
shorter-term basis as we get a better feel for the MCV track.

Not surprisingly, there are pretty large spreads in potential high
temperatures for Wednesday given differing scenarios for the
coverage and timing of showers and thunderstorms in addition to
attendant cloud cover. If clouds and precipitation are slower to
clear, highs will only warm into the lower 70s. This scenario is
most favored along and east of the Highway 65 corridor.

Areas that can see at least some partial afternoon clearing would
make a run at the upper 70s and lower 80s. This scenario is most
favored along and west of the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Wednesday Night: Short term models and ensembles suggest that a low
level jet will strengthen and nose into the region. There is still
quite a bit of variance regarding the location and strength of the
resultant isentropic upglide associated with this feature. If the
jet can nose into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri, it would
set the stage for another round of showers and thunderstorms.

This would include a Marginal Risk for severe storms across portions
of southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri as higher amounts of
instability begin to work into this region. The 15Z SREF indicates
60-80% probabilities of MUCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, mainly
west of I-49. Large hail to the size of quarters would be the
primary potential severe weather threat.

Thursday and Friday: WPC cluster scenarios show good consistency
depicting a closed upper level low digging south across the western
U.S. This would put the Missouri Ozarks in a southwest flow aloft.
Close inspection of global models and ensembles reveal that
multiple short wave troughs will likely be embedded within the
southwest flow. This will keep the potential for showers and
thunderstorms going through the end of the work week. Abundant cloud
cover will favor below normal high temperatures.

Saturday: Cluster scenarios show that upper level low ejecting east
across the northern and central Rockies Friday night and then into
the Plains on Saturday. As this happens, surface low pressure is
forecast to develop across the central High Plains and lift
northeast into the Corn Belt. A cold front will trail the low and is
forecast to move across the Missouri Ozarks sometime Saturday
afternoon or Saturday night.

Initial indications are that instability and deep layer shear will
be supportive of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms,
especially across southeast Kansas and west-central Missouri. SPC
has highlighted this region in 15% probabilities for severe storms.
The CIPS analogs and Colorado State machine-learning products both
highlight this same general area for severe thunderstorm potential.

Early Next Week: Cluster scenarios show quite a bit of variance
regarding the fate of the upper level low. Some ensembles keep
progressing the low east towards the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Other members indicate a brief blocking pattern setting up with the
low stalling across the Corn Belt.

We may see residual showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning (30-50%
chance), especially if that front is slower to clear. Otherwise, we
have maintained low PoPs (20-30%) into Monday given the subset of
ensemble members which depict the upper level low stalling to our
northwest.

If the low is quicker to progress east, we will see larger diurnal
temperature spreads with values fairly close to normal. If the low
stalls closer to the Missouri Ozarks, high temperatures will remain
below normal with overnight lows near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Light showers are currently moving in and out of all sites and
confidence is high that these showers will increase in coverage
and intensity with time through the evening. Widespread rain and
some embedded thunderstorms are likely (60-80%) from 03Z onward.
Visibilities will be reduced and cloud bases will be lowered with
any heavy storms tonight temporarily dropping categories to MVFR,
but for the majority of the TAF period conditions should remain
VFR. Otherwise, winds will hover around 10 kts generally out of
the SSE. Rain will then begin decreasing in coverage early in the
morning, generally around 12Z, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms will still be possible (20-40%) throughout the
morning hours and decrease to 10-15% through the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Titus/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Price

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
229 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
229 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm chances increase across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri this evening and spread eastward tonight.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are forecast over far western
Missouri and far southeast Kansas, but locally higher amounts
would produce a risk of excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a marginal risk of a few stronger thunderstorms
Wednesday that could produce small hail and gusty winds, however
widespread severe weather is not expected.

A 20-30 percent chance of thunderstorms exists area wide Thursday
and Friday with even higher chances returning with a cold front
on Saturday.

Locally heavy rainfall will occur with the strongest
thunderstorms this week however widespread flooding is not
expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus