Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Springfield, MO

331 
WGUS73 KSGF 090559
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023

MOC149-090609-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-230709T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oregon MO-
1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR SOUTHERN OREGON COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3650 9113 3660 9113 3663 9141 3661 9167
      3650 9167

$$

Soria

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern
Missouri through this evening. Additional low chances (20-30%) on
Sunday morning.

2. Warming trend early week into mid-week, with a return of
humid conditions.

3. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances through mid to late
week, with remaining uncertainty in the extent of coverage.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Late Afternoon-Evening: A surface front continues to sag south of
the area through the remainder of the afternoon. Meanwhile, a
lagging 850mb front continues to be the focus for isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Limited coverage is
expected across southern Missouri through this evening, with heavy
downpours and lightning the primary hazards within any
thunderstorms that develop. Otherwise, much of the area remains
completely dry through tonight.

Tonight: Overnight lows fall into the lower to middle 60s with
clouds lingering across the region. Another MCS is forecast to
track to the southwest of the area overnight, perhaps clipping
portions of far southwest Missouri by early Sunday morning.
However, confidence remains low on this potential.

Sunday: Low rain chances linger across the Missouri/Arkansas
border through Sunday morning, with the best chances likely
remaining south of the area. High temperatures climb into the
lower to middle 80s on Sunday afternoon, with the cooler
temperatures across southern Missouri where cloud cover lingers
into the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Monday-Wednesday: An upper level ridge will start to build across
the Plains early next week. This will support a warming trend
through early week, with daily highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
on Monday and Tuesday. However, the area will remain on the
eastern periphery of the ridge, setting up northwest flow aloft
over the Middle Mississippi Valley. The exact setup of northwest
flow will play a key role in potential shower and thunderstorm
chances returning by Tuesday into mid to late week. At this time,
will continue to highlight low rain chances (20-40%) on Tuesday
and Wednesday as weak shortwaves traverse through the region.
Meanwhile, the warming trend continues into the middle of the
week, with highs in the lower to middle 90s by Wednesday. The high
temperatures will be accompanied by increasing humidity, as heat
indicies of 100 to 105 build into the region.

Thursday-Saturday: A hot and humid air mass remains in place across
the area heading into Thursday. There is the potential for an
upper level trough and associated front to dip south into the
area by Thursday. This would be the focus for additional shower
and thunderstorm chances by Thursday night into Friday. While the
exact details remain uncertain, this pattern would be supportive
of potential excessive rainfall given the high moisture content in
the airmass. Continue to follow subsequent forecasts for updates.
Temperatures return to around normal for mid July heading into
next weekend with daily highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
Additional shower and thunderstorm chances linger into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms at all sites
tonight as a thunderstorm complex moves south of the area. At
this time, the expectation is for the precipitation to remain
south of the area, so have left it out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
209 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
209 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern
Missouri through this evening. Localized heavy rainfall and
lightning will be the primary hazards within this activity.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances into early Sunday
morning across southern Missouri as a system slides to the
southwest of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the area by mid week
into late week. The track and timing of thunderstorms remains
uncertain.

Heat index values around 100 degrees are possible on Wednesday
and Thursday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Perez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
611 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

MOZ106-082345-
Oregon MO-
611 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Oregon
County through 645 PM CDT...

At 611 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Thayer, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Oregon
County, including the following locations... Myrtle and Couch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 9149 3663 9143 3653 9113 3651 9112
      3650 9113 3650 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 288DEG 10KT 3655 9138

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Burchfield