Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Springfield, MO

177 
WGUS73 KSGF 160157
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
857 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

MOC229-160515-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-230516T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wright MO-
857 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT TUESDAY 
FOR WRIGHT COUNTY...

At 857 PM CDT, The public reported that Newton Road was flood along 
the Praire Branch due to heavy rainfall from thunderstorms across 
the warned area early this evening. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain 
have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mansfield, Hartville, Dawson, Odin, Manes, Grovespring and Graff.

This includes the following low water crossings...
  Elk Creek at Highway Z, Wolf Creek at Highway AB, Gasconade River 
  at Highway E, Whetstone Creek at Owens Road, Baker Creek at Baker 
  Creek Road, Woods Fork Gasconade River at Rippee Ford Road and 
  Beaver Creek at Crewes Ford Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Many flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 9237 3747 9226 3719 9225 3707 9268
      3716 9268 3719 9268 3748 9269 3747 9238

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

EW

299 
WGUS73 KSGF 160511
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1211 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

MOC229-160521-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-230516T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wright MO-
1211 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR WRIGHT COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Some residual flooding may continue and an 
areal flood warning remains in effect for the area.

LAT...LON 3747 9237 3747 9226 3719 9225 3707 9268
      3716 9268 3719 9268 3748 9269 3747 9238

$$

Lindenberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring
a severe and flash flood potential to the area. Flood Watch in
effect this afternoon.

2. Drier and cooler weather expected mid week.

3. Stronger system may bring better rain chances by Friday, with
cooler and drier conditions behind its passage for the weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

12z KSGF sounding showed a moist and unstable airmass with
1000j/kg of ML CAPE and a PW value of 1.59in. Surface low pressure
was located across northeast Oklahoma with a stationary front
draped northeast across southern Missouri. Even higher moisture
content was located just southwest of the area with surface dews
in the lower 70s. Upper level energy across northeast Oklahoma
will move into southwest Missouri this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms have already developed across southwest Missouri
early this afternoon. Expect thunderstorms to increase this
afternoon in coverage and intensity, and will slowly shift into
the eastern ozarks this evening.

Two hazards we are concerned about this afternoon. One is the
flash flood potential. Given the slow mean wind (less than 20kts),
high moisture content and unstable atmosphere, thunderstorms will
likely produce very heavy rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour. The 12z HREF guidance is in strong agreement that a
corridor of 1-3 inches of rainfall will occur near/along the I-44
corridor with the local probability matched mean showing localized
4 inch totals. Latest Warn on Forecast data shows high probs for
greater than 3 inches of rainfall in localized pockets across
southern Missouri. There are several creeks and streams in
elevated flows right now given some previous rains. The National
Water Model also shows some of our local low water crossings
flooding with this rainfall. Any storms that move slowly over
urban areas will also cause flash flooding. Therefore we have
issued a Flood Watch for areas where we are most confident in
heavy rainfall. It should be noted that not all areas will see
these heavy rains but where they do occur, flash flooding is a
possibility.

The other hazard is severe thunderstorms. While wind shear will
remain low, instability will increase close to 2000/j/kg this
afternoon. Theta E Differentials near 25C and a high PW
atmosphere will be prime for single to multicell thunderstorms
with damaging winds to 60 mph the most likely hazard. Given the
warm air aloft, hail will likely be confined to 1 inch or less. A
frontal boundary will be located over the area therefore the
tornado threat is not zero, but very low (2% chance within 25
miles of a point). Basically a storm would have to develop near
the front and remain there long enough to tap into weak low level
helicity (less than 100m2s2).

Showers will linger into the evening before ending overnight.
Clouds will linger overnight with some light fog potential. Will
need to watch for any stratus build down that could lower
visibilities further. Northerly flow over the plateau will likely
keep low level clouds across the area for most of the day Tuesday
with some light sprinkles/showers at times however most areas will
remain dry. Currently high temps are forecast to reach the upper
60s however they may need lowered further in future updates.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Midweek: Ensembles are in decent agreement that the area will
remain in a drier northwest flow for mid week with rain chances
remaining less than 10 percent. Temperatures in the 70s to near
80 are likely.

Friday: A strong upper level trough looks to push through the
northern US which will drag a cold front through the area during
the day. Showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet at this
time with fairly high pops during the day which is supported by
the ensemble clusters. Confidence is low on any severe/flooding
potential at this time.

Weekend: Surface high pressure settles in for the weekend with
cooler and drier air likely. NBM temperature spreads are small
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the first part of
the TAF period with highest chances for thunderstorms at BBG and
SGF. Ceilings will likely lower into IFR later this evening and
its possible this will last into Tuesday morning and afternoon.
Ceilings may improve to MVFR by late Tuesday evening. Winds will
remain north to northwesterly.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ070-071-079>083-
     088>098-101>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1245 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161745-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1245 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage this afternoon
and evening across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas. The
strongest storms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail
to the size of quarters. The tornado threat remains very low, but
not zero, since there will be a front over the area. Frequent
cloud to ground lightning will occur is most storms today.

Locally heavy rainfall will occur with the storms, and will lead
to a localized flash flooding risk where multiple storms affect
the same locations. Several inches of rain may occur in a short
period of time this afternoon and evening in the Flood Watch area.

Some patchy fog will be possible overnight into Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and isolated storms will linger into Tuesday morning.
Additional low rain chances will persist through the week, with
the best chances coming late in the week with a frontal passage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening
across the area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
310 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

MOZ079-090-152045-
Polk MO-Greene MO-
310 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Polk and
northwestern Greene Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 309 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Walnut Grove to near Morrisville. Movement
was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bolivar, Walnut Grove, Morrisville, Aldrich, Sacville, Eudora and
Brighton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9362 3752 9362 3768 9347 3757 9318
      3734 9339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 224DEG 31KT 3746 9354 3742 9340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Runnels

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
339 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             1 NNW BRIGHTON          37.47N 93.35W
05/15/2023  E0.88 INCH       POLK               MO   911 CALL CENTER

            HWY 13 AND 215.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
355 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW OLIVE             37.45N 93.14W
05/15/2023  M61 MPH          DALLAS             MO   PUBLIC

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WNW OLIVE             37.47N 93.14W
05/15/2023                   DALLAS             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            65 AND WOODSTOCK ROAD UNPASSABLE.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 PM CDT MON MAY 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE PLEASANT HOPE     37.39N 93.25W
05/15/2023                   GREENE             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE CC IS CLOSED EAST AND WEST BOUND DUE
            TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

MOZ082-092-152345-
Wright MO-Texas MO-
607 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Wright
and west central Texas Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 606 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Hartville, or 13 miles northwest of Mountain
Grove, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Grove, Dawson, Hartville, Huggins, Manes, Graff and
Bendavis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 9216 3716 9253 3747 9247 3746 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 210DEG 21KT 3730 9239

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise