Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
534 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Key Messages:

1. A few scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms across
Southern Missouri late this afternoon into the evening.

2. Scattered convection chances continue into Sunday and Monday.
Warm again on Sunday, with cooler temperatures back into the area
Monday.

3. Scattered low rain chances (20-30%) for much of the week as we
get into a northwest flow pattern.

4. Stronger system may bring better rain chances by Friday, with
cooler and drier conditions behind its passage.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

This Evening-Tonight:
An upper-level low continues to slowly lift northeast out of
Nebraska, with an another shortwave across the Southern Plains.
This secondary wave of energy will slowly lift north through today
and Sunday, with accompanying showers and thunderstorms along an
associated boundary that continues to waver across the Middle
Mississippi Valley.

Satellite imagery depicts clouds clearing early this afternoon,
allowing sufficient daytime heating to occur. Expect afternoon
highs to top out in the middle 80s with humid conditions.
Shortwave energy lifting out of the Southern Plains will allow
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by late
afternoon into the evening across portions of southern Missouri.
The environment is not conducive for any strong to severe
thunderstorms this evening given the lack of shear. Much of
activity will be pulse like in nature, with many locations
remaining dry through this evening. The highest chances are across
southern Missouri this evening, or along and south of the
Interstate 44 corridor. Much of this activity will dissipate after
sunset with decreasing instability. A stray shower or rumble of
thunderstorm cannot be ruled overnight, with most locations
remaining dry into Sunday morning. Overnight lows fall into the
middle 60s.

Sunday:
Additional shortwave energy lifts out of the Southern Plains on
Sunday. Expect better coverage of showers and thunderstorms across
the area by Sunday afternoon into the evening with another warm
day in the forecast. A similar environment to Saturday will keep
most of the activity sub-severe. Meanwhile, some localized
heavier rainfall amounts may occur where slow moving thunderstorms
track over the same areas. Widespread flooding is not expected.
Much of this activity will be driven by daytime heating in the
vicinity of a frontal boundary, thus expect a decrease in coverage
into Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Monday:
The warm air will be pushed south of the area heading into Monday
as the frontal boundary sags south of the region. Expect afternoon
highs in the lower to middle 70s. Despite a bit cooler
temperatures, ample moisture remains post- frontal with a subtle
shortwave sliding through the Middle Mississippi Valley. This
will support scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday morning
into the afternoon before clearing the area.

Tuesday-Thursday:
Northwest flow becomes established heading into mid-week, with
shortwave energy transitioning through upper-level flow. While
moisture return will be relatively weak, some low rain chances
(20-30%) return to the forecast daily. Any of this activity will
remain scattered in nature, with plenty of dry periods expected.
Meanwhile, temperatures will slowly be on the rebound through the
week with highs climbing out of the 70s into the lower 80s by
Thursday.

Friday:
By late week, WPC Cluster Analysis hint a stronger system sliding
through the region. Ensemble guidance vary on the timing,
strength, and location of this system. Given the low confidence at
this time on how this event may unfold, will continue to highlight
low rain chances (20-30%). Behind the passage of this system and
associated front, cooler temperatures and drier weather are
expected into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Isolated storms will remain possible across southern Missouri
this evening, and should dissipate by the late evening hours. A
brief period of MVFR conditions will occur with any storm. Some
light fog may be possible at the KBBG TAF site tonight into early
Sunday.

Scattered storms will again occur across the area Sunday afternoon
and evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable this evening into
Sunday morning, and will then become more westerly to
northwesterly Sunday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

			***Springfield***

Date | Record Warmest Low | Year | Forecast Low

5/14         66             1911       65

			  ***Joplin***

Date | Record Warmest Low | Year | Forecast Low

5/14         74             1941       66

			***West Plains***

Date | Record Warmest Low | Year | Forecast Low

5/14         64             2018       65

            ***Vichy/Rolla***

Date | Record Warmest Low | Year | Forecast Low

5/14         67             1962       65

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
706 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
706 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

 Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly along and
south of the Interstate 44 corridor this evening. This activity
should start to dissipate by late this evening. Pea size hail,
localized brief heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning will
occur with the storms this evening. No severe weather or
widespread flooding is expected across the area with this
activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Thursday.

Unsettled weather will continue on Sunday, with better coverage
of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Additional low chances
into Monday. Severe weather or flooding are not expected at this
time.

Low rain chances persist through the week, with the best chances
coming late week with a frontal passage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
714 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

MOZ095-103-140045-
Christian MO-Stone MO-
714 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Christian and northern Stone Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crane, or 12 miles southeast of Aurora, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clever, Crane, Galena, Hurley, Boaz and Elsey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9348 3690 9362 3692 9361 3705 9348
      3704 9336 3696 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 223DEG 16KT 3689 9352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Didio