Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
238 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move through the area tonight then east
of the area Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected through early tonight, then drying
out for Sunday. Another disturbance will pass across the
region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through early
tonight...then drying out for Sunday.

Forecast reflects high probability for showers and thunderstorms
through early tonight as an area of low pressure works its way
across the region. Soundings support robust thermals through
this evening with SBCAPE pushing 2500 j/kg. Mean wind is from
230 deg at close to 20 mph...so expecting storm cells to move
from southwest to northeast and remain progressive. This is a
good thing since PWAT values are near 1.80 suggesting storms
will be rain efficient. Dry pockets of air still evident is some
of the upper layers of the atmosphere (per morning RNK sounding),
so will have to watch for potential microbursts with the
stronger storms. Weather threats through this evening...
localized torrential downpours, strong wind gusts, and
cloud to ground lightning.

Convective Allowing Models (CAMS) suggest it may take until
midnight or 2AM time frame before deep convection completely
clears the forecast area followed by partial clearing. Similar
to last night, may end up with areas of fog or stratus, followed
by bonafide clearing for Sunday as winds become northwesterly
behind the departing upper level trof.

No change in airmass expected tonight, with dewpoints near 70
supporting muggy conditions overnight and temperatures hard
pressed to fall much below 70. Better mixing from a west-
northwest downslope wind should allow dewpoints to fall into the
lower to mid 60s Sunday afternoon, so not as bad for Sunday
night. Temperatures Sunday will top out near the seasonal norm
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s along/west of
the Blue Ridge, to upper 80s/near 90 east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM EDT Saturday...

Quieter start to the week.

A cold front will push east to the Atlantic ocean Sunday night.
High pressure in the Ohio Valley will build east into our region.
It will be mostly clear with a light northwest flow Sunday night.
Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s in the mountains to the
mid 60s in the Piedmont.

A shortwave rotating around the base of the upper trough Monday may
generate showers and thunderstorms Monday into Monday night
especially in our western mountain areas near the WV/VA border.

High temperatures Monday will vary from the mid 70s in the mountains
to the lower 90s in the Piedmont. Low temperatures Monday night will
be mild with readings from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.

Moderate confidences in the Short Term Forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Saturday...

 Storm chances continue for parts of the area each day with
near to slightly above normal temperatures.

An upper ridge will remain parked over the Desert Southwest and the
mean mid/upper trof holds in the East.  An active weather pattern
expected for our region with northwest flow aloft and multiple upper
shortwaves and troughs tracking through the upper flow. Initially,
the better chances for convection look to be in north and west
portions of the forecast area. However, can not rule out some more
organized clusters or MCS crossing further into the area given such
a setup, which guidance frequently struggles to resolve.

The pattern could amplify at the end of the week, which could drive
a cold front southeastward across the area around Friday. If the
timing right, we might be able to get some drier air for the weekend.

Temperatures should remain near to slightly above climo norms.

Forecast confidence in Long Term Period is medium.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

High confidence for scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA through
this evening associated with sub-VFR VSBY/CIGS. Mean wind is
from 230 deg at 18kts, so individual storm cells will be moving
from SW- NE while the overall area of shower/storm activity will
propagate slowly to the east as we progress through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. It may take until
Midnight-2AM time frame before showers move east any out of the
RNK service area. Even after the rain ends, expect development
of stratus and fog for the late night and early morning Sunday.

Conditions are expected to improved to VFR for Sunday afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Sunday looks less active per latest model solutions so outside
of any isolated storms expected VFR conditions.

Another upper level disturbance is expected to cross the region
late Monday or Monday night associated with the next best chance
for SHRA/TSRA, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected
through midweek aside from late night and early morning
stratus/fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
224 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-161830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
224 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could become strong to
severe with damaging winds, isolated large hail, and localized
flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

VAZ009-152115-
Smyth VA-
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
central Smyth County through 515 PM EDT...

At 459 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Adwolf, or near Marion, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marion...
Sugar Grove...
Mount Rogers National Recreation Area...
Adwolf...
Hungry Mother State Park...
Thomas Bridge...
and Atkins.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3687 8164 3695 8147 3674 8137 3674 8138
      3672 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 246DEG 16KT 3682 8157

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
536 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

VAZ035-046-152200-
Amherst VA-Appomattox VA-
536 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
northwestern Appomattox and east central Amherst Counties through 600
PM EDT...

At 535 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Riverville, or near Bent Creek, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bent Creek...
and Riverville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3744 7884 3744 7895 3759 7899 3759 7892
      3754 7890 3755 7888 3754 7887 3754 7883
      3755 7882 3754 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 178DEG 12KT 3748 7889

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
542 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WNW Boonsboro         37.46N 79.30W
07/15/2023                   Bedford            VA   911 Call Center

            Thunderstorm winds blew down one tree on
            Beemer Trail.

&&

PJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
545 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

NCZ001-002-VAZ015-152200-
Ashe NC-Alleghany NC-Grayson VA-
545 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
western Alleghany, northeastern Ashe Counties in northwestern North
Carolina and south central Grayson Counties in southwestern Virginia
through 600 PM EDT...

At 544 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Scottville, or near Mouth Of Wilson, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Laurel Springs...
Mouth Of Wilson...
Grassy Creek...
Scottville...
Piney Creek...
and Bridle Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 8143 3657 8141 3662 8122 3639 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 269DEG 12KT 3649 8136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS

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