Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
651 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A front crosses the area today with a better coverage of
showers and storms. The weather pattern dries out for Tuesday
and Wednesday with temperatures gradually warming through the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

Rain and a few embedded thunderstorms have developed across the
western mountains this morning. This will continue to slowly
progress east throughout the day. Still expecting better chance
of stronger storms east of the Blue Ridge where best
instability/shear overlap. Otherwise, forecast still remains on
track.

As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...

Rain and thunderstorms are possible today...

Fairly quiet this morning across the region with the only
activity being across portions of Wilkes and Yadkin Counties in
North Carolina. Here a cluster of thunderstorms have been slowly
drifting east the last few hours, producing heavy rainfall.

A weak disturbance and associated front over Kentucky/Tennessee
will push east later this morning. Ongoing rainfall and storms
over these areas will continue through the morning hours,
eventually pushing into our area by sunrise in the far west,
then spread east and exit the eastern portions of the area by
mid-afternoon.

Although forcing with this front looks rather weak, a very moist
airmass is in place and instability is expected to build as the
day progresses. Deep layer shear is marginal, but enough to
support a few organized storm clusters capable of producing
strong thunderstorm wind gusts and perhaps and instance of large
hail in the stronger updrafts.

Expecting areas of fog this morning through sunrise and again
tonight. Cloud cover may limit the coverage of the fog, but
should still have pockets of it in the favorable river valley
areas.

Highs today will remain a little "cooler" than the past few days
owing to more cloud cover and rain. 70s in the mountains and 80s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM EDT Sunday...

A quiet period early next week.

A shortwave rotating around the upper trough may generate scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms Monday. By Monday afternoon, high
pressure over the Ohio Valley will build east in our region. High
temperatures Monday will range from the upper 60s in the mountains
to the lower 80s in the Piedmonts. High pressure will remain in
place into Tuesday night. Low temperatures Monday night will be
comfortable with readings from the mid 50s in the west to the lower
60s in the east. Under plenty of sunshine Tuesday, High temperatures
will moderate to the upper 70s in the mountains to around 90 degrees
in the Piedmont.

High confidence in the Short Term Forecast.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 AM EDT Sunday...

Drier To Start, Then Unsettled Second Half Of Week.

Surface high pressure and mid-level zonal flow persist Wednesday
into Wednesday night. The drier quieter weather continue Wednesday
with seasonable temperatures. The base of the upper trough rotates
eastward Thursday into Saturday. Ensemble solutions move a cold
front across our region Friday into Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increase into the weekend.

Temperatures will be around normal for the middle of July.

Moderate confidence in the Long Term Forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 AM EDT Sunday...

Drier To Start, Then Unsettled Second Half Of Week.

Surface high pressure and mid-level zonal flow persist Wednesday
into Wednesday night. The drier quieter weather continue Wednesday
with seasonable temperatures. The base of the upper trough rotates
eastward Thursday into Saturday. Ensemble solutions move a cold
front across our region Friday into Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm
chances increase into the weekend.

Temperatures will be around normal for the middle of July.

Moderate confidence in the Long Term Forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Sunday...

Some areas of LIFR this morning. Fog should lift, but
increasing rain/thunderstorm chances will keep the chance for
sub-VFR conditions throughout today.

Rain/storms have already reached the western mountains and will
shift east with time, arriving in BCB/ROA around 14z (10AM) and
possibly DAN/LYH by 18z (2PM). Heavy downpours will reduce vsby,
along with lowered cigs.

Rain should end by this evening, but fog development could occur
again tonight, creating another round of sub-VFR conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Aside from lingering clouds/ showers Monday, expect a drying trend
for the middle of next week with Tuesday into Wednesday anticipated
to be dry and VFR as high pressure passes across the Mid Atlantic.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with associated MVFR
conditions returns on Thursday.

Early morning sub-VFR fog/low clouds, especially in the river
valleys, is expected through the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...BMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
539 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

NCZ001>005-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ042>044-507-
508-100945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-
Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
539 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms today could be strong to severe. Damaging winds and
localized flooding are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ006-VAZ044>047-058-059-100945-
Caswell-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
539 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms today. Damaging winds
and localized flooding are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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