Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
The Mid Atlantic states and Carolinas will stay in a persistent
summer pattern of humid weather and near normal temperatures
this week. After a weak front goes through tonight, Tuesday
will have a lower chance of storms. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms then increases each day, peaking at the end of the
week with the passage of another front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

...Scattered storms, some severe through this evening, then warm
and dry for most of the forecast area for July 4th...

Showers and thunderstorms are developing across the area, as our
little cap has eroded and more forcing is arriving in the form
of a summer cold front. While we currently have a few widely
scattered storms across VA and northern NC, there is a more
organized line of storms moving through SE WV. Apart from these,
a remnant MCV over central NC was helping to fuel stronger
storms to our east and southeast. A Severe Thunderstorms Watch
has now been issued for areas along and east of the Blue Ridge.

The best theta-e values were pooling over eastern VA and NC, and
expect the more damaging downburst winds to occur closer to the
coast. However, we have temperatures in the 70s and 80s, with
dew points in the 70s. The resultant CAPE along with the
moisture convergence along the higher terrain and the front will
trigger a few strong to severe storms in our area. Most of this
activity will diminish after 8 PM. Damaging winds will be the
main concern. In addition, PWATs of 1.4" and higher will support
heavy rain and the evaporative cooling should increase downdraft
winds.

Tonight, skies will clear out partly, but expect stratus and
fog to develop over the mountains. Lows will range from the low
60s to the low 70s. July 4th looks like we will see a fair
amount of cirrus with low rain chances. If anything we could see
a few showers across parts of WV and also NC. For most it
should be a good night for fireworks. Daytime highs will be in
the upper 70s to mid 80s for the mountains, and in the upper
80s/low 90s for the Piedmont.

Confidence is high in the near term forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Above normal temperatures and humid conditions with limited
chances of showers and storms until Thursday night...

As of 100 PM EDT Monday...

A shortwave ridge is expected to build over the region during
most of this portion of the forecast. This feature will help
limit the extent of showers and storms to primarily those formed
by daytime heating and/or differential heating. Any that do
form will likely dissipate quickly after sunset.

This pattern will start to change Thursday night with the
approach of a cold front, and an increased likelihood of more
organized convection continue into, or forming, during the
overnight hours. The farther west in the forecast area one is,
the greater this potential will be.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average
around five degrees above normal.

Confidence in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Shower and thunderstorm activity increase again Friday into
Monday...

While during mid-week we are expecting a bit of a slow down on
precipitation chances across the area. The numbers look to ramp
up on average across the region Friday through Monday. About the
only confident feature during this time period is the arrival
of a cold front on Friday across the region.

For the weekend through Monday, model guidance is highly
variable on first the speed with which the cold front exits
the region. Secondly, timing, track, and impacts of additional
upstream shortwave troughs and their association showers and
storms into Monday is highly variable.

However, with this said, for different reasons, the various
guidance does keep the area on the wet side for most of this
four day period. Perhaps Saturday will be our slow day among the
four.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are still
expected to average around five degrees above normal.

Confidence in this portion of the forecast moderate for the
increases precipitation chances, but on the low side regarding
the timing and placement of the showers and storms each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Monday...

TSRA and SHRA continue to develop in a region of moist and
unstable air ahead of a weak front. This boundary will track
southeast of the area tonight. Am carrying VCTS or even TSRA for
most terminals until 00-02Z. Winds are SW turning more westerly
behind the front.

ROA, LYH, and DAN should scatter out tonight behind the summer
cold front. LWB, BLF, and BCB will have a chance for
LIFR/IFR/MVFR fog and stratus (more likely) overnight into
Tuesday morning. Tuesday looks VFR once the stratus and fog
improve by 15Z. Expect west winds of 6-12 kts tomorrow with a
few gusts to 20 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered MVFR thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and
evening from Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH
EQUIPMENT...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
256 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ013>017-041900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-
256 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina and
southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The primary threat is damaging wind, with a secondary
threat of large hail. Intense rainfall rates may result in localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-041900-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
256 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>012-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-041900-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
256 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of flash flooding this afternoon and
evening. In addition to the flooding threat, any of the stronger
thunderstorms may produce gusty wind and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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