Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
243 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level disturbance will pass across the central
Appalachians today, triggering strong to severe thunderstorms
mainly east of the Blue Ridge. These storms will be capable of
damaging winds and large hail, particularly across the Piedmont,
plus an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Weather for
Tuesday through Friday will be less active, with any showers and
storms driven by daytime heating and remaining generally
disorganized.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 206 PM EDT Monday...

Severe thunderstorms remain a threat this afternoon.

Surface low pressure centered over Lower Michigan this
afternoon with a cold front extending southward from this low
across the Ohio Valley through central Kentucky. A weak pre-
frontal trough is present along/near the Blue Ridge Mountains
into western North Carolina.

Clouds across the region are hindering instability this afternoon.
However, thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain of the
Appalachians, and perhaps the surface lee trough, as weak ascent
associated with an upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes
overspreads the Mid-Atlantic region. With heating this afternoon,
steep lapse rates combined with 30kt to 40kt of 0-6km shear and
Mixed-Layer CAPE values exceeding 1,500 J/KG support the potential
for severe thunderstorms. The main threats for this afternoon into
this evening is damaging winds, as well as the potential for large
hail. An isolated tornado is also a possibility in the Piedmont.

The cold front will pass across the mountains and shift east across
the Piedmont overnight into Tuesday. Passage of the cold front will
trigger spotty showers and possibly a few additional thunderstorms,
however coverage will be limited. On Tuesday, the best chances for a
thunderstorm will be across western portions of the forecast area.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s in the
mountains to the lower 60s in Piedmont. High temperatures Tuesday
will vary from around 60 degrees in the northwest mountains to
lower 80s in the piedmont.

Medium confidence in Near Term Period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

...Dry Weather With Near Normal Temperatures...

Upper trough over New England will gradually move northeast and away
from the area...replaced by surface High Pressure. Both Wednesday
and Thursday are looking dry...temperatures warming to the seasonal
norms.

By Thursday night we will have to watch for potential thunderstorms
arriving from upstream (Ohio Valley) across the top of the Mid-CONUS
upper level ridge. Models are forecasting the area of high pressure
which has been producing the TX heat wave to build north and east
into parts of the Mid-MS and TN valleys.  This will begin to set the
stage for MCS activity to traverse areas farther north...across the
upper Mid-West and into the Ohio Valley...the ring of fire around
the upper level ridge.  This will put us on the receiving end of any
upstream MCS activity as early as Thursday night, but more so for
Friday and the weekend when the upper ridge gets pinched by an upper
level trough which is forecast to move east along the Canadian
border and into the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

..Good Chance For Thunderstorms Friday and Into The Weekend...

Looking at a potentially active period of weather with a strong
upper level trough of low pressure moving east across the Great
Lakes and amplifying as it progresses east-southeast across the Ohio
Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.  This will energize
the MCS activity over the top of the Mid-Conus Ridge...increasing
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across or near our
region.  With the upper ridge positioned to our southwest, and the
trough to our north, a pipeline of moisture will be established into
the Ohio Valley, upstream of our area, so almost equal chance for
showers and thunderstorms both day and night with above average
potential for MCS development within fast westerly flow between the
ridge-trough interface.

As for temperatures, with WAA and a downsloping flow, along with the
GEFS painting high probabilities of 850mb temps exceeding 1 standard
deviation above normal, temperatures Friday through Saturday
favoring readings slightly above normal...allowing Danville to make
a run at their first 90 degree day of the year.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 134 PM EDT Monday...

An upper level disturbance will pass across the region this
afternoon, and is expected to trigger showers and thunderstorms
especially east of the Blue Ridge. Residual morning clouds are
hinder development of showers and thunderstorms. Once the cap
breaks, showers and thunderstorms will develop and move east
this afternoon into tonight. KDAN and KLYH have the highest
chance of being impacted by any storms, mainly between 20Z/4PM
and 00Z/8PM. Confidence in the coverage of storms is moderate,
but feel best chances for storms will be across southern
Virgina and northern North Carolina.

Any of the storms this afternoon and evening will have the
potential of becoming strong to severe, with large hail and
damaging wind. Any storms may also result in MVFR ceilings and
IFR to MVFR visibility due to torrential rainfall. Clouds and
few showers may linger especially in the west tonight into
Tuesday morning.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind during the
taf period. Average confidence for the timing and location of
the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Any convection Tuesday night will diminish quickly after
sunset. Drier weather is expected for Wednesday. For Thursday
onward, expecting transition to a daily threat of scattered
Sub-VFR afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, but
generally VFR otherwise.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/NF
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/NF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
232 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009>013-015-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-271845-
Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
232 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, a
few of which may become severe, and capable of producing damaging
winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ002-003-019-020-VAZ014-016-017-022>024-032>035-271845-
Alleghany NC-Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
232 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is an elevated threat of organized strong to severe
thunderstorms for this afternoon into early evening across portions
of the mountains and foothills. Damaging winds, large hail and an
isolated tornado will be possible. A few storms may produce locally
heavy rainfall, which may lead to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043>047-058-059-271845-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
232 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a significant threat of organized severe thunderstorms for
this afternoon and evening across the Piedmont. Damaging winds are
the main threat, with large hail and an isolated tornado also
possible. A few storms may produce locally heavy rainfall, which may
lead to isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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