Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1004 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes and pass
across the Mid-Atlantic today, resulting in more scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will be dry as high pressure
builds into the region. A low pressure system tracking across
the Tennessee Valley will bring a greater probability of
widespread rain to the area for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Friday...

   Adjusted timing of precipitation today...

HRRR and other Convective Allowing Models were an hour or two
behind the current position of the front and isolated showers
and thunderstorms in West Virginia. Air was already starting to
destabilize and better coverage of thunderstorms will fill in
between noon and 2PM. No changes to temperatures at this time.

As of 600 AM EDT Friday...

This morning, mostly clear skies across the region. Some river valley
fog is ongoing and will likely continue for another hour or so.

An upper-level trough passing through the Great Lakes this
morning, which was responsible for numerous storms over
Michigan and the Ohio Valley yesterday, will continue to pivot
southeast and cross through Southern Pennsylvania later this
afternoon. Coinciding front will cross the area and this will be
the focus for some isolated thunderstorms.

Best kinematic parameter space, forcing for ascent and
instability will be over the DelMarVa region. However, hi-res
guidance does have higher MLCAPE/SBCAPE pooling over Central
Virginia (particularly east of the US-29 along a line from
Lynchburg to Danville). O-6km shear also in the 30-40kt range
would indicate there is at least the risk for some organized
convection that would be capable of strong winds and large
hail. Downsloping westerly flow should suppress most convection
from the Foothills of the Blue Ridge and west. A Marginal Risk
has been highlighted for the far eastern counties, which is
where the best instability/shear parameters overlap.

Front quickly clears the area late this evening and drier air
filters in from the northwest as high pressure builds in.

Temperatures today feature 70s for the mountains and 80s in the
east. Tonight, with drier air and high pressure building in,
could see some 40s in the mountain valleys, but likely 50s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Moderating temperatures for Father's day weekend.

High pressure across the region will build east into Sunday night.
Under plenty of sunshine, high temperatures Saturday will range the
mid 60s in the northwest mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont.
Low temperatures Saturday night will vary from the mid 40s in the
deeper mountain valleys to the mid 50s in the Piedmont.
Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds Sunday. High
temperatures Sunday will generally be from the upper 70s in the
west to the upper 80s in the east. On Sunday night, the wind
turns to the south and southeast with upslope just beginning
along the southern Blue Ridge and rain arriving in the northwest
North Carolina mountains late Sunday night into Monday morning.
With the additional cloud cover low temperatures Sunday night
will be warmer with readings from mid 50s in the mountains to
the lower 60s in the Piedmont.

Moderate confidence in the Short Term Forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Unsettled and unseasonably cool weather expected for the workweek.

An omega block pattern develops early next week. A piece of energy
comes out of the west long wave trough and tracks as a closed upper
low into the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday. This low lingers across
the Southeast through Friday, blocked by upper ridging over
southeast Canada. There remains good agreement in the overall
pattern on GFS/ECMWF/Canadian but some differences remain on the
location of the 500MB low. Models have trended wetter for next week.

At the surface high pressure will wedge down the eastern slopes of
the central and southern Appalachians. Low pressure will be over the
Tennessee Valley with a warm front extending across the Carolinas.
This will result in unseasonably cold temperatures through the
period. A prolonged period of easterly upslope flow and moisture off
the Atlantic ocean will continue the chances of rain into Friday.
The later part of the week is tricky with high pressure ridging
southward.

Moderate confidence in the Long Term Forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

Areas of patchy fog this morning will continue for another hour
or so, lifting by 13z. DAN/LYH may have a brief thunderstorm
this afternoon that could reduce vsby, but too scattered in
nature and not enough confidence to mention in the TAF.

Winds should remain calm to light and variable for another few
hours, but increase in speed from the west as the day
progresses. Could have gusts in the 20-30mph range.

Any rain/storm activity comes to an end late this evening.
Tonight, some upslope clouds in the far west under northwest
flow will introduce some lower cigs for BLF/LWB, possibly sub-
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will build across the Mid Atlantic by Saturday to
provide dry weather and VFR ceiling and visibility, lasting into
Sunday.

Low pressure approaching from the Tennessee Valley looks to
bring a widespread chance of MVFR to LIFR conditions and
widespread light to moderate rain early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AMS/BMG
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...BMG

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