Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
930 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and potentially strong thunderstorms will arrive tonight
with the approach of a cold front. This cold front will cross
the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday. High pressure will provide drier
and cooler conditions by the middle of the week, but it should
become warmer towards next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Monday...

The break in the rain showers will continue for a little bit
longer, but activity will increase again as a cold front crosses
the Ohio River Valley tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms
are reaching Tennessee at this time. Only minor changes to
precipitation probabilities and sky cover were made.

The cold front itself will slowly move to the southeast, while
storms track parallel to the front. This may bring a localized
flood threat as heavy downpours train over an area. This front
will final move over Southside Virginia late Tuesday afternoon.
Some strong storms may form along the front, but should move
convection out of the area by sunset. High pressure will follow
the frontal passage and linger through the rest of the week.

Tuesday's forecast highs range from the mid to upper 70s west
of the Blue Ridge to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 142 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Storms Exiting Tuesday evening.

2) Lower Humidity Wednesday-Thursday.

Cold front exits this forecast area Tuesday evening, so will
likely sse storms southeast of Lynchburg to Martinsville early
in the evening.

Skies clear over the piedmont, but west upslope clouds are
possible into the overnight in the mountains. Dewpoints will
drop into the 50s by Wed morning.

The front will hang up across the eastern Carolinas Wed-Thu,
with a low pressure wave moving along, as well as some upper
support. Currently, model consensus keeping main threat of
showers/storms east of our forecast areas, but there is a low
chance for Thursday east of Danville.

Still fairly dry and flow turns more southwest Thursday with
dewpoints starting to creep back up, but nothing out of the
ordinary.

High temps Wednesday will run to 3-6 degrees below normal, from
the mid to upper 70s in the mountains, to mid 80s piedmont.

Thursday will be slightly warmer/close to normal with upper 70s
to lower 80s west, to mid to upper 80s east.

Forecast confidence is above average on temps and average on
pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1153 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Mainly dry with increasing heat

2. Will have to watch for MCS activity potential in northwest
flow aloft.

Forecast models are showing 5h trough exiting the east by this
weekend while heights build over the middle of the country. This
ridging looks to extend east to our area by Sunday-Monday as
heights go from 585-588DM Friday to 594-597 potentially by
Monday.

Models keep it dry but with a northwest flow aloft and a frontal
boundary across the Great Lakes to northern Plains, this pattern
could favor MCS tracks. But for now given model consistency in
dry weather will keep pops out. The building heights should also
suppress any diurnal convection.

Highs by Sunday-Monday will be in the lower, possibly mid 90s
east with 80s west.

Forecast confidence is moderate on increasing temps through the
period but lower on extension and strength of the 5h ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 825 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are present over much of the area, with some
lower ceilings lingering along and west of the mountains. A
cold front will reach the area from the west, and will bring
another round of showers and possible storms by 02Z for KBLF and
KLWB. This activity will slowly move eastward and get to the
Piedmont by Tuesday midday. However, some high res models have
this activity diminishing by the time it reaches the Blue Ridge
Foothills by sunrise. Therefore, confidence too low to include
thunderstorms in the TAFs at this time, but they cannot be ruled
out.

Winds will be mostly westerly at 5 to 10 knots before turning
more northwesterly behind the front.

The cold front will exit to the east by the end of the TAF
period, bringing in cooler and drier air.

Forecast confidence is average, but low on shower and storm
development early Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

After the frontal passage late Tuesday, high pressure builds in
over the Mid Atlantic. VFR conditions should persist for
Wednesday through the remainder of the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...PW/RCS/AS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RCS/AS

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