Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
254 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today with an opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms are
possible during the afternoon, mainly along and east of the
Blue Ridge. Main threat is damaging wind and hail. The front is
expected to stall across the southeastern U.S. Friday, and
provide an extended period of cloud cover and potential for
additional rainfall to the area Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will also trend cooler for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

A cold front moving into the area and sparking convection will
be the prominent feature of today's weather. Within the last 15
minutes, the first cells of the day began to grow directly along
the southern Blue Ridge, thanks to the added orographic forcing.
It will not take long for other areas to see showers and storms
form overhead. There is a slight risk of severe weather east of
the Blue Ridge towards central VA. The greatest chance of severe
thunderstorms or damaging winds will be on that side of the
mountains. A pocket of higher instability exists over there,
where MLCAPE increases to >1000 J/kg according to mesoanalysis.
This tracks with the cloud cover pattern we have observed today,
where the west was covered by an almost unbroken shield of
clouds, while the east was more scattered and surface heating
from insolation has been ongoing all day. While this situation
lends itself to weaker storms in the west that will grow
significantly as they travel east and encounter a more unstable
environment, severe storms with damaging winds are possible
throughout the CWA.

As we move into the nighttime period, the front will begin its
stall and turn horizontally laying across the Carolinas. Daytime
instability will be lost, and dynamics from the surface low
pressure will weaken as it distances itself from us. Thunder
will likely end by midnight tonight, but showers will continue
to fall due to the stalled boundary. Most of this rain will be
south of Roanoke and continue through Friday afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat thunderstorm performance on Friday, however,
and only forecasting rain.

We are warm today before the front transitions us into a cooler
regime. Highs in the 70s and 80s today will become overnight
lows in the 40s and Friday highs only rebounding to the low 50s
to accompany some chilly rain showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EST Thursday...

     Cool conditions for the weekend with continued rain chances
in the south through Saturday, then drier for Sunday...

The nearly stationary boundary and elongated moisture axis looks to
remain near the southern CWA Friday night through Saturday and allow
for continued rain chances, while a strong parent sfc high of
1032+mb centered to the north has the area in a classical CAD wedge
setup. While the greatest chance for rain or drizzle looks to be in
the south, any weak perturbations along the moisture axis in the
largely zonal flow aloft or areas of upglide against the wedge could
focus precip farther north. Regardless, it's going to be quite
dreary and cool Saturday with temps for many areas struggling to get
above the mid 40s to low 50s. Below normal temps continue for Sunday
morning with many areas getting down to the low to mid 30s. There
could be a few locations flirting with the freezing mark in the
mountains, otherwise any frost concerns may depend on if winds can
lax but for now they look a bit too high for frost to settle as they
mainly range from 7-10 kts.

For Sunday we finally get a southward push to the front as an upper
shortwave amplifies SEWD and broad ridging wins over. Should have
some continued abnormally cool temps with some possible aided
radiational component for Sunday night as much of the area looks to
range from the mid to upper 30s. Cannot rule out some frost concerns
again for this period.

Forecast confidence medium to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Thursday...

     Dry and gradually warming temperatures...

Upper and sfc ridging will allow for a dry period for the long
term. There is some discrepancy in the upper flow by Tuesday as
it could be either some continued ridging or a weak shortwave,
but regardless it should be mainly a dry solution. Temps look to
gradually moderate back to above normal through period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Thursday...

Mostly VFR conditions exist throughout the forecast area this
afternoon. This will change fairly in the next few hours, as
rain showers and thunderstorms will fill in accompanying a cold
front passing through the area and becoming stationary over the
Carolinas by Friday. For most of the afternoon, the convective
environment should keep cigs elevated, but vsbys and flight
conditions can and will change quickly should a thunderstorm
cross over your location. Wind direction and turbulence will be
unpredictable in the immediate vicinity of thunderstorms. Heavy
rain inside of these storms will also reduce visibility.

While prevailing winds are light and southwesterly, downdrafts
and outflows from thunderstorms can change the direction and
strength of winds quickly and temporarily. Some storms could
become severe, meaning they could generate surface level winds
in excess of 50 MPH.

The thunderstorm activity should end around midnight tonight,
but this will not improve flight conditions. As convection ends
and the rain becomes more stratiform, cigs will begin to lower
into MVFR levels, and in the mountains vsbys will drop to a few
miles Friday morning. Expect rain to continue for much of Friday
for DAN/BCB/ROA and to a lesser extent, LYH. Winds will turn to
the north overnight as the front comes through.

.Extended Aviation Outlook...
The front is expected to stall south of the region Friday with
clouds and a threat for rain continuing Friday and Saturday. NE
to east winds develop Friday. Depending on how close to the
area the front stalls, an extended period of MVFR or lower
conditions into Saturday especially south of a BCB-LYH line.
Conditions are expected to improve Sunday and into the first
part of the following week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Service Life Extension Program maintenance being performed
on KFCX has been completed. KFCX returned to service permanently
early in the afternoon on Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...PM/VFJ
EQUIPMENT...VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
308 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023

NCZ019-071915-
Wilkes-
308 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather today. Main threat is
from thunderstorms which may contain isolated damaging wind and hail.
The thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon, then
move east of the mountains by mid afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>012-015-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-071915-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Grayson-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
308 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather today. Main threat is
from thunderstorms which may contain isolated damaging wind and hail.
The thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon, then
move east of the mountains by mid afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-020-VAZ016-017-032>035-043>047-058-059-071915-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-
Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
308 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a slight risk for severe weather today. Main threat is from
thunderstorms which may contain damaging winds and large hail. The
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon along the
Blue Ridge, then move east across the piedmont mid-late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

VAZ013-014-022>024-071915-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
308 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and west
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe weather today. Main threat is from
thunderstorms which may contain damaging winds and large hail. The
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon along the
Blue Ridge, then move east across the piedmont mid-late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT THU APR 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             2 W MEADOWS OF DAN      36.74N 80.45W
04/06/2023  E1.00 INCH       PATRICK            VA   PUBLIC

            HAIL REPORTED AT BUSINESS ON U.S. HIGHWAY
            58.

&&

PJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
354 PM EDT THU APR 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             5 ESE EVINGTON          37.20N 79.20W
04/06/2023  E1.00 INCH       CAMPBELL           VA   PUBLIC

&&

VFJ

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