Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
227 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected through this evening as a cold front approaches from
the Great Lakes region. The cold front will advance across the
lower Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, though additional showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible in the afternoon hours. High
pressure will return for the early half of the workweek,
resulting in drier conditions. Beginning tomorrow temperatures
will be cooler and closer to normal conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

...Strong to severe line of storms expected this afternoon and
evening...

An upper low situated in the southern stream continues to spin
over the Deep South today, while a northern stream system was
moving through the Great Lakes. The axis of this northern system
will pass from west to east across our forecast area this
afternoon and evening. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for
much of the Piedmont and Roanoke through 8 PM where heat indices
are above 100 degrees currently.

Clouds were able to clear out earlier today, and plenty of
sunshine has helped DCAPEs jump to around 1300 J/kg across a
large swath of the Blue Ridge. While some better moisture and
thus instabilities are found to our WSW, this afternoon's RNK
18Z sounding shows just a negligible cap with plenty of dry air
around to produce damaging downbursts.

CAMs are depicting an impressive line of storms forming -
similar to yesterday - but this time coalescing closer to the
Blue Ridge before racing south. Reflectivities at times
yesterday appeared ragged, and this was due to evaporative
cooling in the rear flank downdrafts eating away at the
precipitation. This cooling helped to accelerate the MCS, and
expect a similar radar presentation today leading to another
afternoon of widespread damaging winds as it moves south. The
main area of precipitation should be south of our area around
9-10 PM. Our PWATs are 1.4-1.6" and we are expecting heavy
rainfall. Flooding is not a large threat with storms moving
quickly, but ponding of water in low water crossings is likely.

A surface front will be accompanying much of this activity, but
there is some questions as to how far away the system pushes
south on Sunday. If the boundary is still near our southern
area tomorrow, we will not be as close to the drier air, and
afternoon showers and storms will be possible again, mainly
along the Blue Ridge. These storms would be more diurnal and not
nearly as strong as the last 2 days. It should feel much more
comfortable with temperatures from about 78 to 90 degrees and
lower dew points.

Conditions will otherwise remain muggy for tonight, with the
potential for patchy fog given moist soil conditions.

Confidence in the near term forecast is moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Quiet start to the workweek...

A region of surface high pressure centered over the southern
Great Lakes will make for quiet weather the first half of this
workweek. As the high slowly trudges east, its influence will
prevent the formation of precip. Some generally drier air for
this time of year will also be in place, which only further
contributes to the lack of activity. Being that this is behind a
frontal passage on Sunday, temperatures will be a touch cooler
than normal, but will moderate by later in the week. Highs in
this period will be in the mid-70s west of the Blue Ridge,
mid-80s east. Overnight lows in the mountains will drop into the
50s thanks to the low dewpoints and mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

The quiet weather will continue for Wednesday. An area of low
pressure in the southern plains will be attempting to strengthen
and move east, while a front closer to Canada will
independently be traversing the CONUS west to east as well. The
southern low pressure system could support some scattered
precipitation as early as Thursday, but more widespread rainfall
will be possible with the front which will likely pass through
the CWA late on Friday or on Saturday. Some mid-level troughing
will also accompany the front, adding confidence to shower/storm
formation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Expect VFR conditions until a broken line of SHRA/TSRA moves
from north to south across the area beginning around 20Z this
afternoon for the northern terminals and lasting through 03Z
for southern terminals like DAN. Damaging winds and heavy
downpours reducing visibilities to 1/4SM for brief periods of
time are expected. Convection will quickly shift south after
03Z. Some dense fog is possible overnight depending on where
clouds diminish.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Looking to Sunday, there will be the potential for another round
of SHRA/TSRA that develops in the afternoon and evening, mainly
along the Blue Ridge and south. Gusty winds and restrictions
will be possible in the vicinity of SHRA/TSRA, but these will be
more garden type storms instead of a large line.

Monday through Wednesday look VFR under dry high pressure. The
next chance of rain arrives Thursday as a front approaches from
the west.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022-023-
     033>035-044>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
348 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

NCZ006-VAZ022-023-033>035-044>047-058-059-302000-
Caswell-Roanoke-Botetourt-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
348 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Reports should be
submitted by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001>005-018>020-VAZ012>020-024-032-043-302000-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Rockbridge-Patrick-Henry-
348 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Reports should be
submitted by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

VAZ007-009>011-WVZ042>044-507-508-302000-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
348 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Reports should be
submitted by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

RCS

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