Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
205 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance passes across this afternoon and evening.
Low pressure moves along a front across the eastern Carolinas
Monday. High pressure builds in Tuesday and remains across the
Carolinas through the end of the week, with temperatures warming
to above normal

be the dry day of the week under high pressure. Temperatures
will warm through the course of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 146 PM EDT Sunday...

A few strong storms possible this afternoon/evening along with heavy
rain...

Storms already firing up but for now just producing heavy and
lightning, maybe some gusty winds, with DCAPEs above 800 J/kg
along/east of the mountains. MLCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg should
increase to 1000-1500 this afternoon, with best instability over the
NC foothills/piedmont. Locally damaging winds, maybe hail up to
nickel size possible in the stronger storms but isolated.
Fortunately pwats are in the 1.0 to 1.3 inch range with 1hr rainfall
rates of 1.5 to 2.0"/hr observed. This should limit flooding but any
repeat storms could cause localized flooding issues through this
evening.

Shortwave over KY helping enhance divergence aloft with some weak
low level upslope convergence as well. Overall not a great setup for
numerous storms, so mainly looking at scattered coverage through the
evening and most of this moving east of the mountains by late
afternoon.

Frontal boundary draped over the southeast NC to Florida panhandle
tonight with a low pressure wave moving across it may keep shower or
storm chances going into the morning Monday in the piedmont.

Further west, skies clear enough that fog may become an issue Monday
morning barring any leftover clouds from the exiting wave.

Monday should be drier but vicinity of the front and another wave
aloft may be sufficient for more shower/storm scattered coverage
Monday afternoon but most models favor better coverage north and
east of our forecast area. So for now, have 30 pops from the
Alleghany Highlands of VA southeast to the central VA piedmont, with
isolated coverage as far southwest as the New River Valley into the
NC piedmont.

With moist airmass, low temps will be slightly milder tonight in the
mid to upper 60s east to upper 50s to around 60 west.

Monday should be seasonably warm with 80s for most except some 70s
in the higher elevations.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high on most elements except
storm coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Sunday...

An upper level trough will pivot over the region Monday night. This
trough exits the region Tuesday with heights building on Wednesday.
Rain chances through the period are very low with low and mid level
ridging centered over the region. Temperatures will run warmer than
normal with 80s across the mountains and low to mid 90s east. Dew
points in the 60s are not outrageous for this time of year, but with
light winds, temperatures will feel a few degrees warmer than what
they actual are.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Heights continue to increase and so will the temperatures Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures across the mountains will range from the
mid and upper 80s to low and mid 90s east of the Blue Ridge.
Rain chances remain low but could see a late day storm pop-up
only to fade in the evening.

Some models are keeping the ridge strong over the region into next
weekend. If this is the case, an approaching front may not move
south of I-64.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 123 PM EDT Sunday...

Have mainly VFR through this evening. Scattered storms will be
hit/miss this afternoon/evening but best chance will be
along/east of ROA/BCB. For now am just going VCTS and amend as
necessary. Any storms fade this evening, though DAN could expect
to have convection around right through midnight.

Overnight the moisture in the low levels and scattering out of
clouds will lead to fog at least across the mountains and
possibly foothills, so have MVFR to IFR at times, with the
lowest at LWB.

Fog/low clouds scatter out around 13-14z with VFR thereafter.
More storms possible but mainly northeast of a line from HSP-LYH
Monday after 18z.

High confidence on ceilings/vsbys and wind through 00z, then
average on cigs/vsbys overnight. Low to moderate confidence on
storms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

More afternoon and evening thunderstorms with possible  MVFR
ceiling and visibility Monday. Mainly VFR outside of morning
fog Tue-Fri. Warmer with just isolated afternoon/evening
convection mainly in the mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1259 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

VAZ013-014-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-241700-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
1259 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through late this evening
will have the potential to produce heavy rain. This may lead to
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-033-043-044-058-059-241700-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Halifax-Charlotte-
1259 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon through late this evening
will have the potential to produce heavy rain. This may lead to
localized flooding. In addition, an isolated severe thunderstorm is
possible with damaging winds the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>012-WVZ042>044-507-508-241700-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
1259 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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