Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled summer weather continues much of the week, as
additional disturbances move across.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

Areas of haze from smoke in the atmosphere from Canadian
wildfires will linger through the afternoon. We will be
tracking two s/w rounding the base of the mean longwave trof
across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight. Expect
showers and storm coverage to increase this afternoon, most
notably in southeast OH and the northwestern portions of WV,
closer to better lift from a sagging baroclinic zone into the
upper Ohio Valley. Given the midlevel flow and shear profiles,
some of these storms could produce a damaging wind gust...mainly
across southeast OH and western WV.

We may get another ramp up later this evening and overnight as
the upper trof axis approaches and the front decays into the
area. However, uncertainty exists to coverage and intensity of
any convection given loss of heating.

There should be less in the way of haze Tuesday as flow briefly turns
more westerly in the mid levels. Much of the day should be quiet
with another disturbance is progged toward evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Monday...

Key Point:
* Unsettled with potential for localized flooding mid week.

A 500-mb trough lifts north Tuesday night into Wednesday as high
pressure spreads into the southeastern US. This places the CWA in
between the ridge and trough, where shortwave energy will move
through. One shortwave is projected to cross south of the area on
Wednesday while a plume of moisture expands across the CWA.
Precipitable water values are likely to climb towards 2 inches
during this time, resulting in an increased risk for flash flooding
due to heavy rain. WPC has highlighted a slight risk of excessive
rainfall across central and southern portions of the CWA, with a
marginal risk covering the rest of the CWA. Strong thunderstorms may
also develop in this warm and very moist environment. Isolated
storms may even be capable of producing damaging winds Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

Daytime temperatures may remain slightly below normal, while
the overnights remain seasonably warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled through the end of the work week.
* Less active this weekend.
* The next disturbance approaches for the beginning of the new work
  week.

A shortwave passing over the region will maintain chances of
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Meanwhile, a low
pressure system tracks along the US/Canada border and into the
Great Lakes region. The low then crosses to the north and is
expected to push a cold front through late in the week.

Surface high pressure and drier air begin to build in behind
the front and as the parent low pulls away to the northeast.
Overall, this should result in quieter weather most of the
weekend, though a few afternoon storms aren't entirely out of
the question. Precipitation chances begin to increase early in
the new work week as the next shortwave approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday...

General MVFR in HZ will prevail through the remainder of the
afternoon amid a SCT to BKN CU field. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will
be noted across the area with VCTS mention in all TAF sites.
Brief reductions in VSBY into IFR are possible for any terminal
that experiences TSRA.

Activity may persist into the night with a slowly approaching
cold front, though confidence on coverage is somewhat low. Areas
fog are possible overnight, especially for terminals that
received rainfall.

HZ should be less restrictive Tuesday with VFR conditions
prevailing amid a building CU field by afternoon.

Light and variable winds outside of convection. Wind gusts 30
to 40 kts is possible in any TSRA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Haze may lower visibility to MVFR or even
lower through tonight. Forecasts may need adjusted or amended
for showers and thunderstorms through 03Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...30/JLB
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-014-017-019-020-
181845-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Wirt-Ritchie-Doddridge-
231 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central, northern, southern and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours and
localized flash flooding this afternoon and evening. Some storms
could produce damaging winds and hail. A marginal risk for excessive
rainfall and a slight risk for severe thunderstorms exist this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The weather becomes unsettled again at times Wednesday and Thursday,
with showers and storms producing heavy downpours and localized
flash flooding potential.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, with
the main threat being damaging winds and hail. While a Slight risk
for excessive rainfall exist for Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-WVZ013-015-016-018-024>034-039-040-515>526-181845-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Lincoln-Kanawha-Roane-Calhoun-Mingo-Logan-Boone-
Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-
Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
231 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central, northeast, northern, southeast and southern
West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours and
localized flash flooding this afternoon and evening. Some storms
could produce damaging winds and hail. A marginal risk for excessive
rainfall and a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exist this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The weather becomes unsettled again at times Wednesday and Thursday,
with showers and storms producing heavy downpours and localized
flash flooding potential.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, with
the main threat being damaging winds and hail. While a Slight risk
for excessive rainfall exist for Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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