Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front brings showers/storms this afternoon and evening.
Mainly dry weather is expected for the new work week, with much cooler
temperatures arriving by Wednesday following another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

A backdoor cold front pushes through the region this afternoon into
this evening with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected ahead of, along, and behind it. Mesoscale models generally
depict between 500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE with fairly weak deep layer
shear of 10-20KTs. The main concern with these storms will be
locally gusty/damaging winds owing to a well mixed boundary layer
with surface dew point depressions around 20F promoting more
significant downdrafts. With generally weak steering flow these
storms may also be fairly slow moving allowing for localized
rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches within an hour. If one of these
convective cores goes over a built up or very flood prone area could
see some localized water issues. Given weak shear and wet bulb zeros
near 11kft, any hail risk would likely be contingent on storm scale
interaction.

The cold front clears the region to the south by late this evening.
In the wake of spotty precipitation falling today and relatively
light boundary layer flow, could see some fog developing overnight
in the better protected valleys - contingent on upper level cloud
cover exiting early enough.

Sunday will be slightly cooler with lowlands highs generally in the
80s. Should see less convective activity, primarily confined to the
mountains and adjacent foothills where diurnal upslope provides a
trigger. With weak flow through the column severe weather is not
expected, but some gusty winds will be possible with any
downdrafts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

Mainly dry weather is expected on Monday/Tuesday outside of a
few isolated diurnal showers/storms across the higher terrain.
Seasonable temperatures are expected both days amid a decent
amount of sunshine, with a cold front crossing through the
region on Tuesday mainly dry. Patchy river valley fog will be
possible at night across the deeper valleys of VA/WV.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

Following the passage of the aforementioned cold front, gradually
building surface high pressure will result in a beautiful stretch of
weather across the region by early June standards. Mostly sunny
skies and seasonably cool temperatures are expected throughout
the period, with even the lowlands progged to remain in the 70s
for highs on Wednesday/Thursday. This results in chilly overnight
low temperatures, with some patchy river valley fog across the
typical deeper valleys of central/southern WV and southwest VA.
There could even be a bit of patchy frost Thursday morning in
the typical northern mountain valley cold spots. A rather
stagnant upper low positioned across the northeastern CONUS
throughout this period may provide enough forcing (with diurnal
heating) for a few isolated showers across the mountains at
times, but given antecedent progressively drier soil moisture
and lessening evapotranspiration, any activity should be quite
isolated.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

A backdoor cold front pushes through the region this afternoon into
this evening with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected ahead of, along, and behind it. Some of these storms may
produce gusty, erratic winds and small hail. The highest probability
of terminal impacts will occur at EKN/BKW/CKB where TEMPO groups for
TSRA have been added. For the remaining terminals, confidence is
lower in terminal impacts and will code only VCTS for now.

Convective activity quickly winds down tonight with loss of heating.
Protected valley locations that receive measurable rainfall will be
more prone to fog tonight - contingent on skies clearing. Confidence
is highest in fog at EKN where IFR impacts are coded over 9Z. For
the non-valley terminals, generally think light flow will help to
keep any fog at bay.

Winds generally light and easterly/northerly outside of
convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, intensity and resultant
impacts to ceiling/visibility from showers and thunderstorms
may vary. Fog may not develop at EKN tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are anticipated.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JP/GW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1235 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-041645-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1235 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce
isolated instances of large hail and/or damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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