Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Charleston, WV

585 
WGUS71 KRLX 050203
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1003 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

WVC087-050213-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230705T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roane WV-
1003 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL ROANE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3884 8138 3880 8126 3875 8128 3880 8139

$$

GW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions yield mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances through mid-week. More focused
precipitation chances return for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Scattered showers are ongoing and will continue as shortwave
energy passes overhead this afternoon and evening. In addition
to showers, a modest amount of instability present this
afternoon will support isolated thunderstorms. Storms are not
expected to become severe, but are likely to produce moderate
to heavy rainfall. Activity should fizzle out tonight as daytime
heating is lost and high pressure attempts to build at the
surface.

Tonight will be mild, with low temperatures in the mid to upper
60s in the lowlands and upper 50s to low 60s along the
mountains. High cirrus should continue to drift overhead,
though this is not anticipated to hinder fog development. At
least patchy fog should form in the valleys overnight into early
Wednesday morning.

After a fairly quiet morning, daytime heating and a weak
shortwave bring at least a slight chance for isolated showers
and storms back into the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s in
the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s along the mountains. Rather warm
dewpoints should also help to drive apparent temperatures into
the 90s across most of the lowlands Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will approach the area Wednesday night into Thursday,
creating additional rounds of showers and storms, particularly
across the eastern half of the CWA as frontal boundary coincides
with peak heating. Overall severe threat continues to be low due to
a lack of significant instability or shear, but storms will contain
heavy downpours and will be overall slow to move in the light flow
regime. With the warm and humid conditions, heat indices could top
out in the mid 90s on Thursday in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Frontal boundary will continue to slowly push east through the area
Friday, ending up just east of the higher terrain by Friday evening.
Although somewhat lower dew point air will move into the area,
mainly northern zones, it will still be warm and humid into
Saturday. A shower or storm is possible on Saturday area wide during
peak heating hours, but chances will be more likely over the
mountains. Conditions continue to be warm, humid and unsettled over
the weekend as multiple shortwaves move through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions should persist most of the afternoon and
evening; however, scattered showers and isolated storms moving
through the area may temporarily restrict visibilities. Ceilings
may also briefly dip down to MVFR with some lower clouds passing
through. Showers and storms come to an end by late evening, then
calm winds and only high level cloud cover should allow fog to
develop in the valleys overnight. CIGs/VIS are likely to lower
to IFR or worse wherever fog does develop. VFR conditions will
return once fog dissipates Wednesday morning, then VFR is
expected to persist area-wide for the rest of the valid TAF
period.

Westerly winds generally remain under 10 kts today, though
stronger gusts could occur in storms. Winds become calm to
light and variable tonight, then remain light on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGs/VIS may be worse than forecast within
showers/storms today. Extent, intensity, and duration of fog may
vary from the forecast. Timing of improvement to VFR on
Wednesday may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR valley fog possible early Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JLB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
412 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-050815-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
412 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
704 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

WVZ018-028-029-050030-
Calhoun-Gilmer-Braxton-
704 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...SOUTHWESTERN
GILMER AND WEST CENTRAL BRAXTON COUNTIES...

Locations impacted include...
Arnoldsburg, Shock, Millstone, Orma, Wilsie, Rosedale and Nicut.

Heavy rain in excess of one to two inches may cause ponding of water
on roadways and flooding in low-lying areas.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 3874 8078 3863 8091 3872 8117 3874 8117
      3875 8118 3882 8114
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 290DEG 21KT 3875 8106

GW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
739 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

WVZ016-018-050100-
Calhoun-Roane-
739 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL CALHOUN AND CENTRAL
ROANE COUNTIES...

Locations impacted include...
Spencer.

Heavy rain in excess of one to two inches may cause ponding of water
on roadways and flooding in low-lying areas.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 3878 8139 3885 8138 3882 8114 3872 8117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 289DEG 9KT 3879 8126

GW