Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
334 PM PST Sat Feb 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold and stormy period continues through the end of February and
into the beginning of March. Anticipate several rounds of snow at
all elevations leading to widespread travel difficulties, especially
in the Sierra. Periods of enhanced breezy conditions will make it
feel that much colder. Bundle up and protect populations and pets
that are vulnerable to these wintry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...

A cut-off low is starting to make its way onshore over SoCal today,
dragging the snow showers further south with it. However, there will
be patchy snow showers ongoing for Mono/Mineral counties and western
NV south of I-80 this afternoon. There are a few snow showers
starting to push their way north over Mineral/Lyon/Churchill
counties at the time of this writing. Those showers will fizzle out
over the afternoon before more quick hitting showers push north and
pivot over Lyon/Alpine/Mineral/Mono counties. This will drop a few
additional inches of snow across that region tonight. We'll see a
slight uptick in the temperatures today thanks to some weak low-
level WAA. Winds will slowly diminish throughout the afternoon
today, becoming light overnight.

Heading into Sunday, a shortwave trough is expected to pass through
the region, bringing a quick shot of additional snowfall to the
Sierra and NE CA. Winds will start to pick up out of the SW ahead of
the system Sunday morning with 700 mb winds increasing to 45-50 mph.
Ridgetop winds could see gusts up to 85 mph Sunday afternoon with
lower valleys gusting to 40 mph. The 700 mb jet that's sweeping in
from the NE on Sunday looks very unorganized and on the weaker side,
so spillover potential with this system will likely be limited. This
round of snow will be sweeping through from northwest to southeast,
starting in the Sierra and NE CA between 9AM-12PM with the heaviest
snowfall occurring between 1PM-3PM. Snowfall rates during the
heaviest snowfall will be around 1-1.5"/hr. Snowfall totals for the
western half of the Sierra range from 8-14", while the eastern side
will see 2-6" above 7000'. The showers will lighten up along the
Sierra overnight into Monday morning, staying light until the next
winter storm rolls through Monday afternoon. -Justin

.LONG TERM (Monday-Saturday)...

* A significant winter storm is expected to impact the Sierra next
  week Monday into Wednesday.

* Blizzard Warnings have been issued for eastern Sierra zones Monday
  through Tuesday night due to the combination of heavy snowfall and
  gusty winds producing periods of near zero visibility.

Our active late February pattern continues into early next week with
what is shaping out to be the strongest of our recent series of
storms. A low positioned off the Pacific Northwest will set-up a
favorable pattern for heavy snowfall across the Sierra and into
portions of W.Nevada during the Monday into Wednesday timeframe.

This storm will possess a combination of a cold air mass, sufficient
moisture, strong winds, instability, and dynamic forcing to produce
heavy Sierra snowfall with periods of blizzard conditions. Near zero
visibility will be possible at times particularly in the Monday
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon timeframe as snow ratios of
around 15-17:1 result in light fluffy snowfall which could be easily
blown around by wind gusts over 50 mph across Sierra communities and
over 100 mph across Sierra ridges.

Snowfall across the Sierra will have two periods of higher snowfall
rates on Monday afternoon-evening and again late Tuesday morning
into Tuesday night. Through this duration upwards of 4 to 6 feet of
snowfall will be possible along the Sierra crest with 2 to 3 feet
for communities in the Tahoe Basin and eastern Sierra communities
west of US-395 in Mono County. Expect widespread impacts with travel
becoming hazardous if not impossible at times.

The airmass will remain cold enough to keep snow levels at all
valley floors across western Nevada on Monday and Tuesday which will
provide accumulating snowfall down in the valleys. Two periods of
spillover snowfall are expected Monday afternoon- evening and also
Tuesday morning into early evening. Due initial snowfall projections
of 4-8 inches for lower valleys during this 2 day period, a Winter
Storm Watch has been posted for the Sierra Front including the Reno,
Carson City, and Carson Valley areas. See the latest Winter Storm
Watch for expected amounts.

This storm will continue yield light to moderate snowfall on the
backside of the low on Wednesday before most snow showers taper off
by Wednesday evening. We will have a small break in the action
Thursday through Friday before another potential storm system moves
through by next weekend. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

* Winds will decrease for a short period tonight between 4PM-1AM
  before increasing again Sunday morning. FL100 winds will increase
  over the Sierra around 40-45 kts through Sunday morning. Expect
  periods of mountain wave turbulence and LLWS Sunday morning
  through at least Monday afternoon.

* Snow showers will persist tonight along the Sierra south of the
  Tahoe Basin and along the eastern Sierra. These showers will
  continue to bring widespread mountain/terrain obscuration along
  with periods of IFR CIGS/VIS. There's an 80% chance for 2-6" of
  additional snow accumulations between 0Z-12Z Sunday for KTVL/KMMH
  and terminals in between.

* A brief winter storm moving in right behind the current one will
  impact the Sierra Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Expect
  moderate-heavy snow, LLWS, turbulence, and IFR CIGS/VIS once again
  during this time period. Snow will be most impactful for Sierra
  terminals, with little to no spillover. Snowfall amounts for
  KTRK/KTVL have a 70% for 4-6" and KMMH likely to see up to 2". -
  Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
     NVZ002.

     Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Wednesday NVZ002.

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday NVZ001.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night NVZ003.

CA...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Wednesday
     CAZ071.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
     CAZ072.

     Blizzard Warning from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Wednesday CAZ072.

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday CAZ073.

     Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Wednesday CAZ073.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1022 AM PST SAT FEB 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             1 SSW BOCA RESERVOIR    39.39N 120.09W
02/25/2023  M3.5 INCH        NEVADA             CA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BOCC1 0.8 S BOCA
            RESERVOIR.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 ESE SIX MILE CANYON   39.30N 119.53W
02/25/2023  M4.5 INCH        LYON               NV   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NV-LY-39 DAYTON 3.9 NE.

0630 AM     SNOW             DIAMOND PEAK SKI BASE   39.25N 119.92W
02/25/2023  M11.0 INCH       WASHOE             NV   PUBLIC

0900 AM     SNOW             1 SSW FERNLEY           39.60N 119.24W
02/25/2023  M5.5 INCH        LYON               NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM     SNOW             3 WSW GARDNERVILLE RANC 38.87N 119.80W
02/25/2023  M3.5 INCH        DOUGLAS            NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM     SNOW             HEAVENLY SKI BASE       38.93N 119.93W
02/25/2023  M14.0 INCH       EL DORADO          CA   PUBLIC

0800 AM     SNOW             HOMEWOOD MOUNTAIN SKI B 39.09N 120.16W
02/25/2023  M10.0 INCH       PLACER             CA   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NNW INCLINE VILLAGE   39.27N 119.97W
02/25/2023  M6.8 INCH        WASHOE             NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM     SNOW             MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SKI BA 37.65N 119.04W
02/25/2023  M32.0 INCH       MONO               CA   PUBLIC

0600 AM     SNOW             MINDEN                  38.95N 119.78W
02/25/2023  M5.0 INCH        DOUGLAS            NV   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MINN2 MINDEN.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 NNW LEE VINING        38.02N 119.17W
02/25/2023  M33.8 INCH       MONO               CA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION CA-MN-6 MONO CITY 1.9 SW.

0730 AM     SNOW             MT. ROSE SKI BASE       39.32N 119.89W
02/25/2023  M10.0 INCH       WASHOE             NV   PUBLIC

0600 AM     SNOW             1 SSW NORTHSTAR SKI BAS 39.26N 120.13W
02/25/2023  M12.0 INCH       PLACER             CA   PUBLIC

0800 AM     SNOW             PALISADES TAHOE SKI BAS 39.19N 120.24W
02/25/2023  M10.0 INCH       PLACER             CA   PUBLIC

0830 AM     SNOW             4 SSW RENO              39.49N 119.86W
02/25/2023  M8.5 INCH        WASHOE             NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NNE RENO              39.56N 119.81W
02/25/2023  M4.7 INCH        WASHOE             NV   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NV-WH-2 RENO 1.4 NNE.

0800 AM     SNOW             9 SSW SUTCLIFFE         39.83N 119.64W
02/25/2023  M0.8 INCH        WASHOE             NV   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NV-WH-100 RENO 22.2 NNE.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 SSW RENO              39.49N 119.84W
02/25/2023  M5.4 INCH        WASHOE             NV   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NV-WH-167 RENO 3.5 SSW.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 E STEAD               39.64N 119.83W
02/25/2023  M3.5 INCH        WASHOE             NV   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NV-WH-165 RENO 7.1 N.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NW MEYERS             38.88N 120.03W
02/25/2023  M9.5 INCH        EL DORADO          CA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION CA-ED-20 SOUTH LAKE TAHOE
            4.9 SW.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 E SPARKS              39.55N 119.71W
02/25/2023  M2.0 INCH        WASHOE             NV   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NV-WH-31 SPARKS 1.7 E.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 SSW SUSANVILLE        40.37N 120.67W
02/25/2023  M7.5 INCH        LASSEN             CA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION CA-LS-1 SUSANVILLE 3.2 SSW.

0800 AM     SNOW             TAHOE CITY              39.17N 120.14W
02/25/2023  M4.0 INCH        PLACER             CA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION TAHC1 TAHOE CITY.

0700 AM     SNOW             TAHOMA                  39.06N 120.13W
02/25/2023  M10.3 INCH       EL DORADO          CA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION CA-ED-9 TAHOMA .5 S.

0800 AM     SNOW             4 NW TRUCKEE            39.36N 120.26W
02/25/2023  M20.0 INCH       NEVADA             CA   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             2 N TRUCKEE             39.35N 120.20W
02/25/2023  M11.0 INCH       NEVADA             CA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION CA-NV-51 TRUCKEE 1.6 N.

0855 AM     SNOW             2 SSE DOG VALLEY        39.52N 120.03W
02/25/2023  M5.0 INCH        SIERRA             CA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION VERC1 VERDI 2 W.

&&