Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
946 AM Mon Jun 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level low will drift into the area today and
linger over the region through much of the work week, bringing
cooler temperatures and unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 946 AM Monday...

Other than mixing out dewpoints a little more this afternoon across
the northeast Piedmont/Coastal Plain, little changes were made to
the inherited forecast.

The mid/upper low has settled down into the depths of the Ohio
Valley this morning. Here locally, sswly flow along the eastern
periphery of this upper feature was present aloft over the
southeast. A short-wave kink in the mid-level flow was also evident
over the deep south, coincident with MCV-induced morning convection
over GA/SC.

The main energy associated with this MCV activity should trek to our
south over the next several hours. However, guidance suggests weaker
waves of upper energy rounding the base of the upper low and
advecting over central NC early this afternoon.  This energy will
coincide with increasing low-level moisture transport (PWAT surging
over 2 inches across western locations; ~130 % of normal) and a semi-
stationary warm front to produce rounds of showers and scattered
storm clusters early this afternoon through the overnight period.
Coverage and POPS will be highest across western zones where
stronger moisture flux, instability, and forcing will be present.
Further east (primarily east of US-1), residual/retreating drier air
will limit inability and associated rain rates. Thus, a pretty
strong QPF gradient is possible through tomorrow morning with
upwards of 1.5 to 2 inches across the western Piedmont, to as little
as a few hundreds of an inch across the Coastal Plain. Similarly,
any storms that develop across western NC should mostly dissipate as
they cascade into drier/more stable air with northward/eastward
extent. Think the overall severe threat is pretty limited today out
west with marginal kinematic parameters. However, given the highly
anomalous moisture present (with MLCAPE ~1000 to 1500 J/kg), a few
storms could grow strong enough to produce isolated wind damage.

Hydro-wise, given the QPF potential across western locations, the
WPC continues to maintain a slight to marginal risk for flash
flooding for locations west of Raleigh.  However, with recently dry
conditions, as well as most guidance maintaining highest
QPF/training potential along the eastern slopes/foothills region, do
not think we'll experience much in terms of flash flooding outside
of isolated potential in urban areas if higher rain rates are
realized.

Highs today will range from lower 80s across the west, to mid to
upper 80s further east.  Lows will be warm overnight in the upper
60s/lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Monday...

The synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged Tuesday and
Tuesday night, with minimal movement of the upper low or the surface
low, although the coverage of showers will increase with the lows
over Tennessee, and have increased pops. However, high pressure off
the New England coast will strengthen slightly over that 24 hour
period. This will act to tighten the pressure gradient and slightly
increase wind speed, but more importantly, to bring more of a cold-
air damming northeasterly flow into central North Carolina. This
will result in noticeably cooler high temperatures on Tuesday, with
most locations remaining in the 70s, except for some lower 80s to
the east of Interstate 95. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will
limit how much overnight temperatures can fall, with some fog likely
forming overnight in the moist airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...

High confidence continues for below normal highs and a wet pattern
mid to late week.

Upper-level low pressure will remain across the TN Valley/Southeast
the middle of the week before lifting north to the OH Valley on
Friday. Although the low lifts north, a trough will remain across
the region through the weekend, and slowly transition east along the
East Coast by early next week. At the surface, a front will remain
stalled near the coast of the Carolinas through the period, with
surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and Northeast slowly
building east away from the region.

Wet and cooler weather will be in full swing by Wednesday as several
waves aloft move across the area and isentropic ascent generate
periods of rain and thunderstorms through at least Friday. Near all
of the 19/00Z CMC/EPS/GEFS members generate precipitation across the
area through Friday before some breaks in the rain set in for next
weekend. Precipitable water values will remain between 1.75-2.00"
mid to late week, before potentially lowering slightly next weekend.
Flooding may be a concern for the first half of the extended given
how soils will be saturated by Wednesday, especially across the
Piedmont where several inches of rain are possible by the weekend.

Northeasterly surface flow and cloudy, wet conditions will help
highs dip 5 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals on Wednesday, then
flow slowly shifting easterly and then southerly Thursday will help
highs slightly increase through Friday, with widespread 80s expected
by the weekend. Lows will remain mild and in the 60s through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 AM Monday...

TAF period: Low clouds and fog have unexpectedly blossomed around
sunrise. TEMPOs were added to cover conditions through 12Z, and the
12Z TAF package was created with the assumption that mixing over the
next hour will allow for a return to VFR conditions. After this, VFR
conditions are expected through much of the daytime and into the
overnight hours at some locations. With a low moving in from the
west, showers will overspread the region from west to east. However,
it appears that showers will not quite make it to RDU late in the
afternoon, then begin to retreat slightly to the west, leaving
FAY/RWi with just scattered showers. Confidence in thunderstorms at
INT/GSO has increased enough to add a TEMPO group during the
afternoon. IFR conditions are expected to develop at INT/GSO during
the evening, while MVFR ceilings should eventually reach RDU/RWI/FAY
overnight.

Outlook: There should be some slight improvement to flight
categories after sunrise Tuesday. However, with an upper level low
remaining over the Southeast through the week, showers, scattered
thunderstorms, and ceiling restrictions can be expected through the
outlook period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...JJT
AVIATION...Green

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
513 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-083-201200-
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-
513 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Unsettled weather is expected for much of this week, with several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. There is a marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening.
The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. In addition, there
is a risk of excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A risk of excessive rainfall will continue Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ007-023-024-040-075-076-084>086-201200-
Person-Alamance-Orange-Chatham-Moore-Lee-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
513 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Unsettled weather is expected for much of this week, with several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. There is a risk of
excessive rainfall today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A risk of excessive rainfall will continue Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-088-089-201200-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
513 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Unsettled weather is expected for much of this week, with several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. There is a risk of
excessive rainfall mainly from Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1143 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

NCZ038-191645-
Davidson NC-
1143 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Davidson County
through 1245 PM EDT...

At 1142 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Salisbury, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 35 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Thomasville, Linwood, Denton, Arcadia, Gordontown, High
Rock Boat Dock Marina, Welcome, Nc Wildlife Access Boat Launch and
High Rock Lake Marina & Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8048 3583 8046 3583 8043 3585 8042
      3585 8039 3588 8042 3589 8037 3597 8039
      3598 8037 3595 8007 3558 8006 3557 8010
      3556 8021 3561 8024 3568 8033 3572 8033
      3574 8046 3579 8048 3581 8047 3583 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 233DEG 25KT 3566 8053

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

22

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