Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 303 PM
EDT Tue May 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south across North Carolina through this
evening. High pressure over the Great Lakes will build into the OH
Valley and mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and off the coast Wednesday
night. &&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 303 PM Tuesday...

...Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for portions of the northern
Piedmont and Coastal Plain from 3 to 10 pm tonight...

Sfc analysis this afternoon depicted a quasi-stationary front draped
across NE NC up into the Richmond, VA vicinity. Further north,
showers and a few storms have started to fire across central VA
associated with a passing upper level short wave currently
traversing the PA/MD vicinity.

Here across central NC, mostly nwly sfc flow continues this
afternoon, as dew points have remained mostly in the lower 60s.
Areas east of US-1 have observed some destabilization over the past
several hours. Expect this to continue, with MLCAPE forecast to
reach ~500 to 1000 J/kg by mid-afternoon.  CAMs continue to pinpoint
the highest coverage in storms across the northern Coastal Plain
associated with the southwestward collapse of the aforementioned
front. Storms in this area will have access to the strongest deep
layer shear (30 to 40 kts) and thus best chance to potentially
organize. Additionally, increasing effective SRH along the leading
edge of the advancing cold front could induce a few super-cellular
structures in this vicinity as well. However, forecast hodographs
are not overly curved, and thus still believe the main threats from
any severe storms this afternoon would be hail and damaging wind
gusts (DCAPE in this vicinity will increase to ~1000 J/kg). For
those in the Triangle vicinity, a remnant outflow boundary from this
morning's mountain convection has migrated just to the north.  This
boundary will also force scattered thunderstorms over the next
several hours. Any storm in this vicinity could also become strong
to severe and potentially produce hail and damaging wind gusts.

For those across the western Piedmont, a few scattered
showers/storms may develop, however, deep-layer shear will not be as
strong in this vicinity, and thus storms may struggle to
deepen/organize.

Any lingering showers/storms this evening will mostly push east of
the area by ~03Z.  Overnight lows will cool off a bit into the upper
40s (NE) to mid 50s (SW) as the aforementioned cold front pushes
through the area overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Tuesday...

With mid and upper level ridging across the Deep South/MO Valley and
a trough across New England, central NC will be under the influence
of a northwest flow aloft. The cold front moving across NC this
evening will stretch from west to east across AL and GA around
daybreak Wednesday. Cool and dry surface high pressure centered
across OH/PA on Wednesday morning will shift southeast across the
mid-Atlantic and move off the Carolina coast by Thursday night. This
will result in fair weather and noticeably cooler temperatures with
highs in the mid to upper 70s which is about 1 to 4 degrees below
average. Other than a few mid or high clouds, skies will be mainly
clear on Wednesday and Wednesday night. With light winds and a dry
air mass on Wednesday night, expect good radiational conditions.
Have undercut guidance on Wednesday night with forecast lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s, some of the typically colder spots will have
lows in the mid to possibly lower 40s. -Blaes &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

The upper air pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a mid and upper level ridge extending from FL northwest into
the TN and OH Valleys. The ridge axis will shift east a bit and will
extend just west of the southern Appalachians on Friday morning. The
closed upper low across TX this afternoon will open up, ride around
the ridge and approach the southern Appalachians on Friday night.
This pattern will support generally fair weather across central NC
but with a varying and increasing amount of mid and high clouds.
There is a small chance that some convection across the OH and TN
Valleys on Friday could make it into the western Piedmont before
diminishing on Friday night. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Thursday will warm into the lower to mid 80s on Friday. Lows will
range in the mid 50s to around 60 both nights.

The forecast becomes less clear for the weekend into early next week
but a somewhat more unsettled pattern appears to be developing but
it is not clear how unsettled it will turn out to be. The upper
level ridge axis relaxes a bit over the weekend allowing the main
westerlies to shift south and a series of mid and upper level
troughs to move across the region. A cold front enhanced by the
initial short wave trough approaches from the north late Saturday
supporting a chance of showers/storm across the northern half of the
area late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night with dry conditions
across the south. The front will likely linger just to the north on
Sunday as a warm front before another front sweeps southeast across
the area on Monday and south of the region on Tuesday. Still
difficult to provide details but in general, a limited threat of
showers and storms across the north on Saturday and Saturday night,
better albeit mid range chance PoPs areawide on Sunday into Monday
with limited PoPs across the south on Tuesday. Highs on Saturday will
warm into the upper 80s to around 90 and the mid 80s near the VA
border on Sunday to the lower 90s across the south on Sunday. Highs
will range a great deal on Monday but dependent on the placement of
the front with a best guess of highs near 80 near the VA border to
the lower 90s near the SC border. Cooler areawide on Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 80s. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 111 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue for much of the 24 hr TAF
period.  However, showers and a few storms will be possible this
afternoon/early evening which could cause brief sub-VFR conditions
primarily at KRWI/KRDU/KFAY.  A stray shower or storm could form in
the vicinity of KINT/KGSO, but overall, the storm threat appears
better further east.  Sfc flow will turn nely late tonight as a
backdoor cold front pushes across the area through tomorrow morning.
Models have hinted at both 1) a few hour surge in nely sfc flow (15
to 20 kt gusts) and 2) a brief period of potential MVFR ceilings
primarily at KRWI/KFAY/KRDU. However, any lingering MVFR ceilings
will quickly scattered out as drier air advects into our area
through early Wednesday morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday. The chance for showers/storms and associated sub-VFR
conditions then return Sunday and Monday as another front arrives.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Luchetti

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
304 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

NCZ007-021>025-038>040-073>077-083>086-088-101000-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
Hoke-Cumberland-
304 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few storms through this evening could become strong, with isolated
wind gusts over 40 mph and pea sized hail, mainly along and east of
Highway 1.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through mid evening.

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-078-089-101000-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-
Wilson-Wayne-Sampson-
304 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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