Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
954 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will hold over the North Carolina Piedmont
through Thursday, as a warm and humid air mass persists over the
region. A cold front will move south of the region late in the week,
bringing some drier air this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Wednesday...

Water vapor satellite showed broad troughing across the eastern
U.S., and a weak shortwave moving across central NC this morning.
Radar displayed a decaying MCV moving east-northeast across the
Triangle, helping to develop a few strong thunderstorms across the
area. Additionally, surface obs showed a trough stretching from
north to south across the region. The 19/1200Z GSO sounding came in
this morning with a high precipitable water of 1.79 inches, and
displayed an unstable layer aloft with the shortwave moving by, but
also showed a cap around 500 mb.

The cluster of showers and thunderstorms across the Triangle this
morning will likely hold together and continue towards the
central/northern Coastal Plain through early afternoon. Diurnal
convection is expected this afternoon and evening. Storms will
develop along the surface trough, and outflows will help generate
showers and thunderstorms elsewhere through the period, along with
storms that move east off the mountains. SPC has the all of central
NC under a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms today, with
damaging wind gusts as the main threat with dry air aloft
contributing to higher DCAPE. Heavy rain is also possible with the
larger PW values, and isolated flash flooding could occur where
heavy rain develops across urban/poor drainage areas. Most storms
will diminish by late evening.

Another hot day is expected, with highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s,
and heat index values in the low 90s to low 100s. Muggy conditions
will stick around tonight, with lows dipping to the upper 60s to mid-
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Continued hot and humid with scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms.

Another day of strong heating will lead to highs in the lower to mid
90s. This will lead to MLCapes approaching 2500 j/kg. Models suggest
a weaker cap, but the shear is still in question. The key may be an
early day MCV that some models push across the mountains late
morning or in the afternoon. This could arrive during peak heating
and instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are possible,
with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Southern sections
appear most likely to see storms, yet this will likely shift a bit
in time and location. The chance of thunderstorms will shift to the
east during the evening. Lows Thursday night will again be in the
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...

In general, the forecast has trended slightly drier with this
package. While a front should move across the forecast area Friday,
forcing should be minimal, and have only gone with chance pops
across southern counties Friday night through Saturday night,
primarily because of a shortwave passing south of the region. A
broad upper level trough will extend from Hudson Bay in Canada all
the way to the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and drift east through the
rest of the forecast. This should provide enough forcing for
diurnally driven thunderstorms through the rest of the forecast
period.

One more day of widespread highs in the 90s is expected on Friday,
although slightly drier air with the incoming front will bring
dewpoints down enough to limit the area of triple digit heat index
values. On the cool side of the front, Saturday will be the coolest
day out of the next seven, with all locations expected to remain in
the 80s. Highs will then moderate through the rest of the period,
with 90s returning to many locations by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 AM Wednesday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected through 12z/Thursday. There is
still a chance of MVFR haze and fog through around 12z-13z, but most
models indicate an increase of the boundary layer flow allowing for
some mixing. In addition, a couple of residual disturbances aloft
(MCV's) were tracking east across the mountains early today. They are
expected to continue to weaken as they cross the region this
morning. They will have some instability to work with, but mostly
less 500-1000 j/kg, with some CINH mixed in as well. As such, only
isolated showers/thunder expected. Later today, central NC is
expected to be in a minimum of convection, with the exception of
possibly KFAY to KRWI (where there is about a 20-30 probability of
an MVFR thunderstorm later this morning through the afternoon.

Looking beyond 12z Thu, scattered showers and storms are possible
starting as early as Thu morning, remaining possible through the day
Thu and into the evening. Daily typical isolated to scattered
showers and storms, mainly from mid afternoon to mid evening, will
remain a possibility Fri through Sun, with the potential for pockets
of early-morning fog as well.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...JJT
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
432 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078-200845-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
432 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of isolated severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The main hazard is
damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
Thursday and Thursday evening. The main hazard is damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089-200845-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
432 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The main hazard is damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. The main hazard is damaging wind.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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