Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1100 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and moist southwesterly flow will increase ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west today. The cold front will move into
the area late tonight, then cooler high pressure will follow
Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 935 AM Wednesday...

Changes to the forecast with the morning update were minor. There is
an area of rain that currently extends from the Triad east through
the Triangle and over to Rocky Mount, while the primary band of rain
that will move through the region extends from the Triangle south to
Charlotte and southwest into South Carolina. There has been no
change locally to the SPC convective risk, with all of central North
Carolina under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk, and the primary
threat damaging winds with an isolated tornado possible. Previous
discussion follows.

As of 320 AM Wednesday...

Water vapor satellite showed an upper low across the Midwest, with a
trailing trough digging across the Deep South. A cold front was
moving east across the TN Valley, and generating showers and
thunderstorms along a broken line from LA to TN. Isentropic lift was
generating light rain across portions of central NC this morning.
Light rain will continue at times this morning, then showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms along a line will push west to
east across the region late this morning through the afternoon ahead
of the approaching front and upper trough. Ample moisture will
continue to be advected across the region with a strong 45-55 mph
850 mb jet. By late morning, precipitable water values will increase
to 250 percent of normal. This will help showers and storms produce
heavy rainfall and minor flooding as they move east. Surface
dewpoints in the 60s and strong lower-level shear should be enough
to generate some stronger storms today. SPC currently has all of
central NC under a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with latest high-
res models showing the best chance of stronger storms across the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain this afternoon. Damaging winds are still
the primary threat, with an isolated tornado also possible.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the line, with gusts around
25 mph expected for most of the region this afternoon.

Well above normal temperatures this morning in the upper 50s and low
60s have a good chance at breaking the record high minimums (see
Climate section below). Highs will range from the mid-60s NW to
upper 70s SE, with KFAY having the best chance of tying or breaking
the record high.

A few light showers may linger behind the main line this evening,
then all precipitation should exit east by late tonight as the main
cold front pushes east out of the region. Some models are hinting at
the possibility of dense fog tonight, however mixing may prevent
this from occurring. Cooler air will slowly filter in behind the
cold front tonight, with areas of the Triad dipping into the mid-40s
by sunrise, while the Coastal Plain only lowers to the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

The upper-low over the Mid-Mississippi valley Wed will accelerate in
speed Thu, reaching the northern Mid-Atlantic by Fri morning. As it
does so, height falls and shortwave energy will traverse northeast
across the southern Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon and early evening.
Unfortunately, the moisture axis will be well offshore during this
time, but 850-mb WAA will favor afternoon fair weather cu, mainly
across the north. At the surface, the cold front approaching from
Wed will be hung up along the Appalachians or over the far western
Piedmont of NC early Thu, while a surface trough is located along
the NC coast. As a result, southwest winds at times gusty will
persist during the day, and although the airmass cools, temperatures
are still expected to be rather mild with low 60s in the NW to the
upper 60s to around 70 along/east of US-1.

The cold front will move through Thu night as high pressure over the
lower Mississippi Valley settles into southern MS/AL. Northwest winds
are forecast to remain stirred so optimal radiational cooling is not
expected. But it will be noticeably cooler in the upper 30s to lower
40s under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1100 AM Wednesday...

Friday/Saturday: Flow aloft turns more wnwrly Friday through
Saturday as weak upper ridging builds across the southeastern US. At
the surface, high pressure from the deep south will ride
northeastward along the southern Appalachians Friday through
Saturday promoting mostly dry conditions across our area. However,
forecast soundings continue to show some low to mid level moistening
across the NC/VA border Saturday afternoon. If realized, isolated
drizzle may be possible in this vicinity for a few hours. Otherwise,
predominantly wnwrly flow will promote dry conditions through
Saturday night.

Daytime highs in this period will be a bit chillier compared to this
past week, reaching the mid to upper 50s (near-normal). Calm to
light winds coupled with relatively clear skies Friday night could
promote good radiational cooling potential. Thus, lows are forecast
to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s Friday night. Increasing
clouds Saturday night should negate decoupling potential, with a bit
warmer lows in the mid to upper 30s expected across our area.

Sunday through Wednesday: An upper level shortwave is expected to
dig into the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region Sunday into
Monday. Ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement to track a sfc
low north of our area, but an associated cold front will likely push
through Sunday into Monday.  Ensemble probabilities for measurable
rain Sunday into Monday have increased some the past few runs. Thus,
decided to keep the inherited slight to chance POPs from 12Z Sunday
through 12Z Monday from the previous forecast. However, given mostly
wnwrly flow over central NC ahead of the shortwave, the better
anomalous moisture is forecast to stay north of our area. Thus, this
system currently appears to be a low-end QPF event (even the
ensemble 90th percentiles only pump out a few tenths to a quarter of
an inch by Monday morning).

Beyond Monday, a deepening upper trough may produce some upslope
showers along the high terrain which could trickle into our area
late Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there is considerable
disagreement amongst ensemble members at this point, and thus
decided to maintain dry conditions most of Tuesday, with just slight
chance POPs Wednesday.

Daytime highs should remain near normal from Sunday through
Wednesday mostly in the mid to upper 50s (perhaps a touch warmer on
Monday; cooling rend by Wednesday). Overnight lows will dip into the
mid 30s over this period as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

RA  and isolated TSRA are moving NE across the region this morning,
then SHRA and isolated TSRA will develop and move across western
areas late morning/early afternoon and continue east through the
afternoon, exiting out of the region by early evening. Sub-VFR
conditions are expected at times throughout the day, with MVFR
conditions developing after rain ends late this evening. SW surface
winds should remain between 5-10kts this morning beneath a strong
low-level jet that will be located around 2-3k feet at 30-40kt.
However, strong winds will persist at 2kft over all terminals
through the TAF period, even strengthening to 40-50kts out of the
southwest this afternoon.

Looking beyond 12z Thursday, MVFR/IFR cigs and vsby are possible,
especially in the east through Thursday morning. VFR conditions
return by Thursday late morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Temperatures for Wednesday January 4:
SITE  RECORD MAX    RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
GSO    74/2005           57/1950
RDU    76/2005           58/1950
FAY    77/2004           60/2004

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJT
NEAR TERM...Green/JJT
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...JJT
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1133 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

NCZ085-086-088-089-051645-
Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
1133 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 14 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across the
region today. Damaging winds are the primary threat, although an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ007>011-023>028-038>043-073>078-083-084-051645-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-
Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-
1133 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across the
region today. Damaging winds are the primary threat, although an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ021-022-051645-
Forsyth-Guilford-
1133 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across the
region today. Damaging winds are the primary threat, although an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1224 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

NCZ042-077-086-088-089-041815-
Johnston NC-Hoke NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
1224 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Sampson,
southern Harnett, Cumberland, southwestern Johnston and east central
Hoke Counties through 115 PM EST...

At 1224 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles north of Pope AFB to 7 miles southwest
of Fayetteville to near Rex. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Clinton, Lillington, Fort Bragg, Dunn, Benson, Godwin,
Pope AFB, Hope Mills and Spring Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for central North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 7893 3487 7892 3490 7894 3495 7903
      3491 7910 3537 7906 3546 7863 3520 7836
      3486 7836 3484 7849 3485 7850 3485 7883
      3483 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 251DEG 36KT 3532 7900 3502 7901 3483 7903

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1226 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

NCZ008-025-026-041-041815-
Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
1226 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Granville,
northern Wake, southern Durham and northwestern Franklin Counties
through 115 PM EST...

At 1225 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Durham, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Creedmoor, Wake Forest, Butner, Franklinton, RDU
International, Morrisville, Youngsville and Falls Lake State Rec
Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 7851 3618 7851 3618 7849 3616 7846
      3617 7845 3616 7842 3617 7842 3615 7838
      3595 7842 3585 7887 3601 7897 3627 7861
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 243DEG 32KT 3597 7883

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

22