River Flood Warning 14, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
858 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure area will continue along the Carolina coast tonight
before moving across the Virginia Capes early Monday. Cold high
pressure will build into the region on Monday night and persist
through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 845 PM Sunday...

Water vapor satellite imagery displayed an upper low centered
across SC. Surface obs showed a 989 mb low off the NC/SC coast, with
northerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph reported across central NC. Radar
showed a large area of rain moving north across the area, with a
break in the coverage across the western and southern area of
central NC. While conditions across most of central NC remained
fairly stable, portions of the Coastal Plain showed the potential of
strong winds aloft mixing to the surface through the evening. The
High Wind Warning was allowed to expire earlier this evening as the
threat for widespread strong wind gusts near 50 mph diminished.
Storm total precipitation amounts so far have ranged from just over
an inch across parts of the Triad, to around 4 inches across parts
of the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. The Flood Watch remains
in effect for areas outside of the Triad through late tonight.

The marginal severe threat across parts of the Coastal Plain will
diminish over the next few hours as the surface low tracks further
up the coast. Rain will become more scattered this evening as the
main area of widespread rain pushes further north across VA. An
additional 0.50 to 1.50" of rainfall is possible this evening and
overnight as rain ends from west to east, with highest amounts
across the Coastal Plain. Dew point temperatures in the 60s across
the east will quickly drop into the 40s by late tonight as cold and
dry air advection strengthens across the area. Lows will range from
the lower 40s NW to upper 40s SE. Breezy winds will continue
overnight and shift more northwesterly by early Monday as the
surface low moves by along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Sunday...

The phased synoptic trough and briefly closed mid-level cyclone now
developing and deepening across the Savannah Basin will deamplify
and accelerate newd across the srn middle Atlantic through 12Z Mon.
It will do so in response to a "kicker" nrn stream shortwave trough
that will amplify sharply from srn Manitoba and the nrn Plains sewd
and across the OH Valley and cntl Appalachians by 00Z Tue, before it
too will form a closed, mid/upper-level cyclone while pivoting into
the middle Atlantic through 12Z Tue.

At the surface, a tight MSL pressure gradient and CAA will result
Mon, as the coastal cyclone now off the cntl SC coast tracks into
the Northeast. A quickly following clipper cold front will cross
cntl NC Mon evening.

The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature the quick development of strong wnwly surface winds with
diurnal heating/mixing Mon morning, with gusts mostly in the low-mid
30s kts, locally higher across the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal
Plain, through midday. Subsidence and mainly sunny conditions in the
wake of the exiting coastal low, and downslope flow/compressional
warming, will favor high temperatures in the 50s, to near 60 in the
Sandhills. The approach/passage of the aforementioned nrn stream
trough axis and clipper surface cold front Mon evening will result
in increasing clouds, to mostly cloudy for a few hours, along with a
small chance of a shower as a shallow cloud/saturated layer deepens
to near minus 8 or 10C (marginally cold for precipitation
production), atop an otherwise dry and residually deeply-mixed
boundary layer around 4 thousand ft deep. CAA, then late night
pockets of decoupling and diminishing surface winds over the wrn
Piedmont, should support lows lows from upr 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1224 PM Sunday...

Tue-Thu: A deep and vigorous upper-trough extending into the area
from the northern Mid-Atlantic Tue morning will bring a reinforcing
shot of cold advection and gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph. Tue
looks to be the coldest day of the week with highs some 8-12 degrees
below normal in the low to middle 40s. Cold high pressure over the
TN valley will build into the southern Appalachians by early Wed,
allowing for excellent radiational cooling under clear skies and
light winds. Our coldest night of the week looks to be Tue
night/early Wed with lows in the upper teens to low 20s.

Ridging at mid-levels over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will shift
east Wed night and Thu, keeping our weather quiet and dry as high
pressure at the surface remains anchored over the Carolinas and SE
US. Highs in the upper 40s Wed should trend slightly above normal
Thu into the mid 50s. Lows during this time will generally be in the
20s.

Fri-Sun: A quasi-zonal mid-level flow will largely be in place
during this time. A shortwave over the Midwest and Great Lakes will
track east across our north Fri into Sat, which should increase mid-
high clouds at times. Models show a deeper shortwave trough digging
into the southern Rockies/Plains late in the period Sun, which will
aid the surface high over us to retreat into the far NE US. This
will favor highs remaining slightly above normal in the mid/upper
50s and lows generally in the 30s. While the trough to our SW Sun is
forecast to increase moisture, this appears to not impact our area
until early next week given the latest deterministic/ensemble data,
so have kept Sun dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 745 PM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period:

Hazardous Aviation Conditions will Continue Tonight...

Widespread heavy RA will continue sub-VFR conditions, improving from
west to east by late tonight. Areas across the Coastal Plain could
observe an isolated TSRA, possibly affecting KFAY/KRWI through early
evening. VFR conditions will develop from west to east overnight,
with SKC developing by mid-to late Monday.

Gusty winds are also occurring at the surface and in the lower-
levels, with surface wind gusts of 20-30kt and LLWS through 2000 ft.
Surface winds will shift from northerly this evening, to
northwesterly overnight, and westerly on Monday. The strongest winds
will be through early Monday, then improve Monday afternoon.

Outlook: A light SHRA could generate brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions Monday night, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Precipitation:

December 17:
KGSO: 1.52/1930
KRDU: 1.35/1890
KFAY: 1.68/1970

December 18:
KRDU: 1.22/1959

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>011-024>028-
040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS/JJT
NEAR TERM...JJT
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...JJT
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
750 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-074>077-083>086-088-190100-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-
Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
750 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Heavy rainfall is possible through early Monday morning as a
powerful storm system tracks northeast over the region. Rainfall of
2 to 4 inches will bring the potential for localized flooding,
especially in urban and poor drainage areas. This storm system will
also continue breezy winds, gusting to 30 mph at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ078-089-190100-
Wayne-Sampson-
750 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Heavy rainfall is possible through early Monday morning as a
powerful storm system tracks northeast over the region. Rainfall of
2 to 4 inches will bring the potential for localized flooding,
especially in urban and poor drainage areas. This storm system will
also continue breezy winds, gusting to 30 mph at times.

Lastly, there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of strong to severe
storms during the late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the
primary severe threat. An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-190100-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-
750 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rainfall of 2 to 3 inches will bring the potential for localized
flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas. This storm system
will also bring windy conditions, gusting to 25 mph at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

JJT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
822 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNE Mount Olive       35.22N 78.06W
12/17/2023                   Wayne              NC   911 Call Center

            Flooding at NE Church Rd and Old Mt. Olive
            Hwy. Hwy blocked off.

0740 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Nahunta           35.51N 78.06W
12/17/2023                   Wayne              NC   911 Call Center

            Flooding at Nahunta Rd and NC Hwy 581.
            Intersection blocked off.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
840 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Flash Flood      6 SW Newton Grove       35.19N 78.43W
12/17/2023                   Sampson            NC   911 Call Center

            Flooding reported at Roanoke Rd and Wrye
            Branch Rd. Intersection blocked off.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
847 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Flood            4 SW New Hope           35.76N 78.60W
12/17/2023                   Wake               NC   911 Call Center

            Rose Ln closed at Walnut Creek due to
            flooding.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
850 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Flood            3 NNW New Hope          35.85N 78.58W
12/17/2023                   Wake               NC   911 Call Center

            Flooding reported at Capital Blvd and
            Calvary Dr.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1043 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

NCZ028-180445-
Edgecombe NC-
1043 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EDGECOMBE COUNTY THROUGH 1145 PM
EST...

At 1043 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bruce, or 8 miles northeast of Farmville, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Princeville, Pinetops, Macclesfield, Conetoe,
Speed, Leggett, and Kingsboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 7735 3583 7739 3582 7741 3581 7742
      3580 7747 3576 7752 3568 7766 3599 7778
      3600 7777 3608 7754 3607 7753 3606 7754
      3604 7753 3604 7747 3600 7743 3600 7741
      3599 7741 3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 166DEG 38KT 3570 7750

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Leins

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>