Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Raleigh, NC

058 
WGUS72 KRAH 110215
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1015 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

NCC057-067-081-110225-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-230911T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Davidson NC-Forsyth NC-Guilford NC-
1015 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN DAVIDSON, 
SOUTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND NORTHWESTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3572 8034 3583 8047 3584 8045 3583 8043
      3585 8042 3584 8039 3585 8039 3587 8039
      3619 7989 3617 7963 3592 7998 3592 8005
      3587 8005 3569 8030 3572 8033

$$

CBL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
735 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will continue to weaken over the region during
through Tuesday. A cold front is expected to move through the area
on Wednesday, with cool, dry high pressure building in thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

A stationary front remains across central North Carolina, roughly
oriented from NE to SW. With the front weakening over time, a
dewpoint gradient is the best way to see the different airmasses,
with mid to upper 60s west of US-1 and low to mid 70s east of the
highway. Model guidance has been all over the place as to how much
convection will develop this afternoon. With low morning clouds
having mixed out, there is generally just a lot of diurnal cumulus
across the area now. The Piedmont appears to be a slightly favored
region for showers and storms, although the entire forecast area
remains under a slight chance. The bulk of the activity should fade
by sunset, with a completely dry forecast after midnight. With
little change in airmass, another round of fog and low stratus could
occur late tonight, although rainfall was much more widespread in
intensity and coverage yesterday than it will be today. Overnight
lows should be similar to last night, ranging from the mid 60s to
the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

The shortwave over the TN Valley today will continue to shear out
and lift northeast on Monday, and will slowly be replaced by a
positively tilted trough digging through the Midwest by midweek.  A
baggy surface trough will linger over the area in place of the
weakening frontal zone over the region today.  The airmass has dried
out significantly since yesterday with markedly drier mid-level air
upstream over the Southeast, but PW will remain near normal around
1.5".  Cannot rule out an isolated shower Monday afternoon with weak
capping and  southwesterly flow aloft, but little in the way of
forcing for ascent will confined convection to the mountains and
seabreeze. Highs 83-89.

There could be some patchy stratus given a generally unchanged low-
level airmass, and though while low, SREF probabilities favor the
north Piedmont into VA.  Lows will be in the mid and upper 60s.

We will start to feel the influence of the upper trough swinging
through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as a cold front approaches
from the west.  The chance of afternoon showers and storms will
increase across the western Piedmont, and there is a little better
agreement among the GFS and ECMWF that some upstream pre-frontal
convection will move into the area Tuesday night, followed by
additional chances with the actual front Wednesday.   Poor diurnal
timing and generally weak deep layer shear should keep convection
sub-severe late Tuesday, but given the PJ approaching the Mid-
Atlantic states will shift its right entrance region over NC and
better model agreement, have increased POPs over NBM Tuesday night.
Similar highs and lows on Tue/Tue night with mid/upper 80s and
mid/upper 60s respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 226 PM Sunday...

Wednesday a cold front over western NC will sweep across the region
bringing a chance of showers and storms to central NC Wednesday. The
strong cold front will exit the region late Wednesday night
filtering in cool, dry air behind. Thursday will be dry and cool as
the front pushes offshore (and Hurricane Lee away from the coast).
Temps Thursday will be upper 70s to low 80s across the area. Friday
will feel like Fall as high pressure builds in and dew points drop
into the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Temps Friday night
will be in the low 50s in the north to mid 50s south. By Saturday
high pressure will be slowly shifting east and centered over SW
Pennsylvania, resulting in temperatures ranging from the upper 70s
in the north to low 80s in the south over the weekend. Dew points
will still be in the low 40s to upper 50s over the weekend, making
it feel refreshing and seasonable. Lows will continue to slowly
climb but still remain in the 50s Saturday night and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: There is still some uncertainty of how extensive
a period of MVFR cigs will be this evening/tonight, but generally
expect the best chance for MVFR cigs at KINT/KGSO, and possibly
KRDU. MVFR/IFR vsbys are expected at KINT and KGSO, possible at
KRDU, KFAY and KRWI. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.
Scattered showers and storms are expected through the evening, but
should taper off tonight. -KC

Outlook: Isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out Monday/Tuesday
afternoon. A more substantial chance for showers/storms is expected
Tuesday night through Wednesday before high pressure brings a dry
air mass for Thursday into the weekend. -Green

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KC/Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC/Green

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
407 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-110900-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
407 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.