Tornado Warning 38, NWS Pueblo, CO

788 
WWUS55 KPUB 232303
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
503 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

COC071-232312-
/O.CAN.KPUB.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-230623T2315Z/
Las Animas CO-
503 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
eastern Las Animas and western Baca Counties until 545 PM.

LAT...LON 3700 10329 3706 10333 3714 10321 3706 10311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 235DEG 6KT 3707 10323 

$$

MG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
311 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Key Messages:

1) One or two supercells expected over the far eastern plains later
this afternoon. These storms, if they develop, could be significant.

2) Otherwise hot and dry; breezy/windy at times the rest of the
period.

Currently...

A volatile atmosphere was located over the eastern one half of the
southeast CO plains this afternoon. Mixed CAPE values were in excess
of 3000 J over the far eastern planes and shear was 30 to 40 knots.
A trough axis was located from KLHX down toward east of KTAD. A
broken line of cumulus were bubbling along the trough axis.

Behind the trough/dryline axis, it was quite warm and windy. Dewpts
were in the 20s with temps in the 90s. Mountains were windy and
quite dry and warm.

Rest of this afternoon/early evening...

Main concern is severe potential. Hi res guidance continues to
indicate one or two thunderstorms will erupt over the far eastern
plains running from KLAA down towards Kim later this afternoon
around the 3-4 pm time period. Given the volatile atmosphere, these
storms will have the potential to rapidly become severe. The primary
threat for our region will be hail as the low level hodographs will
likely not get favorable until the storms push into KS, but
nonetheless I cannot rule out a tornado and some strong downburst
winds. The convection will likely push into KS roughly around 7
pm- ish.

Rest of Tonight...

Dry. Min temps will be cooler than last several days as the ambient
sfc airmass will be much drier over the region. This much drier air
can clearly be seen on the lower level water vapor channels that is
moving into teh region.

Tomorrow...

Dry. Zero pops across the board in the NDFD database. Min RH values
will be in the single digits most areas by afternoon. Clear skies
likely. Max temps will be in the U80s/L90s across the plains with
L80s larger valleys. It will be breezy in the mtns and valleys.

Meteorologically, critical fire weather conditions will be in place,
but given the greenery/moisture over the area, no fire weather
hilites are planned. \/Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Key Message:

1) At above seasonal temperatures with chances for storms across the
   plains through the work week.

Saturday night-Sunday night...Moderate west to southwest flow
continues across the region, as one embedded wave translates across
the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains, and more energy
digs across the West Coast and Great Basin. This will keep dry and
breezy conditions over the higher terrain through the period, with
winds mixing down across the high mountain valleys in the afternoon
and evening. Further east, the passing northern system sends a weak
backdoor front across eastern Colorado late Saturday night with
increasing low moisture expected back across the eastern plains
through the day Sunday with east to southeast low level winds.
Models continue to indicate modest instability across the plains,
with CAPE of 200-800 j/kg, however with warm air aloft and no
evident trigger, there looks like there could be enough cin to keep
convection at bay and will keep the dry forecast attm. Temperatures
on Sunday look to be slightly cooler than Saturday, but still around
seasonal levels in the 80s across the plains and mainly in the 60s
and 70s across the higher terrain.

Monday-Wednesday...Modest west to southwest flow aloft continues
through mid week, as digging trough across the Great Basin builds
the ridge across the Rockies. This will keep mainly dry and warm
conditions in place, with highs back into the 90s across the plains
and mainly in the 60s to the 80s across the higher terrain. Latest
models do indicate low level moisture fluctuating across the plains
through the period, with the potential for deep moist convection,
mainly across the far southeast plains, if the cap can be broached.
With that said, have keep the NBM slight pops for afternoon/evening
storms in the forecast.

Thursday-Friday...Increasing west to southwest flow aloft is
expected as the Great Basin energy lifts out across the Rockies.
Models are differing on timing and location of the passing wave and
become 180 degrees out of phase into the next weekend. At any rate,
passing wave will allow for slightly cooler temperatures and an
uptick in showers and storms, especially across eastern Colorado,
for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

VFR near certain next 24 hour at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and
KCOS. It will be breezy during the afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1155 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-241800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1155 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

One or two severe thunderstorms are expected to occur over the
far eastern plains after 3 pm this afternoon. The primary threat
will be very large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. An isolated
tornado can't be ruled out, but if a tornado should occur, it
would likely be close to the Kansas border. The storms should push
into Kansas by 8 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

After a dry weekend and early part of next week, isolated
thunderstorms may return to the eastern mountains and plains for
mid to late week. There is a chance that on Monday the storms
along the Colorado and Kansas border may be severe, otherwise, the
main risks from any storms during this extended period will be
lightning, gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

34/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
218 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

COZ093-097-232045-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
218 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Otero
and west central Bent Counties through 245 PM MDT...

At 218 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
North La Junta, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  La Junta and North La Junta around 230 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 10360 3787 10371 3816 10341 3795 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 228DEG 20KT 3788 10356

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
309 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 W Las Animas          38.07N 103.24W
06/23/2023  E60 MPH          Bent               CO   Trained Spotter

            Small limb damage.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Hail             1 W Las Animas          38.07N 103.24W
06/23/2023  M0.75 inch       Bent               CO   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
332 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

COZ097-232200-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
332 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Bent County
through 400 PM MDT...

At 331 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Las Animas, or 15 miles east of North La Junta, moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Las Animas, John Martin Reservoir and Fort Lyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 10333 3801 10336 3817 10303 3803 10296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 250DEG 41KT 3801 10326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe