Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Key Messages:

1) Another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
today, initiating over the Palmer Divide between 1 and 2 PM.

2) Critical fire weather conditions expected across the San Luis
Valley, the Sangre de Cristo mountains and in the vicinity of
Walsenburg and Trinidad.

Currently...Convection has finally ended and pushed east of out
Colorado as of 3 AM, leaving scattered to broken cloud deck across
the plains in the wake. Temps have cooled into the upper 40s to mid
50s for the high valleys, and 50s to lower 60s for the plains.

Today and tonight...It looks as if the eastern plains will have to
deal with another day of strong to potentially severe thunderstorm
activity through the afternoon and evening. An upper shortwave
crossing the northern Rockies today will combine with an upper jet
streaming across the state, as well as llvl moisture across the
plains as evident by dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60F. Hi-res
models are indicating very favorable lapse rates across the plains,
as well as CAPE in the 2000-2500 j/kg range and 0-6 km bulk shear of
45-60 kts. HRRR and NAMNest models are showing storms firing once
again over the Palmer Divide between 19-20z, then pushing across the
plains through the aftn and eve. Noticeably, not a lot of activity
is expected across the southern counties, so the southern border of
stronger activity may be along Highway 50 or so. SPC has much of the
eastern plains within the Marginal area for severe weather, and a
Slight area edging down into Kiowa County, so the focus will be
moreso to the north. Main storm threats with the stronger storms
will be large hail and gusty winds to 60 mph. Storm motion will be
to the east-southeast, with the last convective activity forecast to
exit the state to the east right after midnight.

Dry and breezy conditions will continue across the San Luis Valley
today, and will spread east across the Sangre de Cristo Mts as well
as nose into Huerfano and western Las Animas counties. Wind gusts of
25 to 35 mph combined with minimum RH levels of 9-14 percent will
produce critical fire weather conditions today in those areas, so
had to expand the ongoing Red Flag Warning to include Fire Zones 229
and 230. Please refrain from any outdoor activities that could start
a fire.

Look for max temps today in the 80s for the high valleys which
continues the string of above normal highs there, and about 6 to 10
degrees warmer across the plains today with readings in the 80s to
around 90F. Tonight, plan on overnight lows in the 40s for the
high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Key Messages:

1) Some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, but mostly dry Tues-Weds.

2) Critical Fire Weather conditions will persist through mid-week.

3) Daily showers and storms return starting Thursday.

Conditions will be largely dry across our forecast area on Tuesday,
but the specifics will depend on the speed of an incoming shortwave
disturbance that will bring some activity to the area. Current model
consensus is for the wave to pass through late Tuesday evening into
the early overnight hours. As such, most of the day will be hot and
dry with high temperatures in the 80s-90s across the area. As the
shortwave moves through, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
fire over the Palmer Divide before tracking east-southeast onto the
plains. Given the good shear and modest instability, some of these
storms could become strong to severe, with large hail and strong
winds being the main impact concerns.

Behind the departing shortwave, Wednesday is expected to be
relatively cooler and dry, with highs sitting in the 80s and little
to no precipitation expected. If any showers do form, it would be
isolated, high-based showers over our western mountains.

Critical Fire Weather conditions will be possible both Tuesday and
Wednesday, mainly over the San Luis Valley and our southeast
mountains. Strong zonal flow aloft will mix down towards the
surface, resulting in gusty winds over the western half of our CWA.
Meanwhile, limited moisture at the surface and dry fuels could
result in some volatile conditions for fire spread. Fire Weather
Watch is being hoisted for Tuesday in these areas, while an eye is
being kept on conditions for Wednesday.

A new shortwave is expected to pass through Wyoming on Thursday, a
bit too north to have a major impact on our area, while an upper-
level ridge begins to build in across the region. The rest of the
long-term forecast period will be dominated by this feature along
with west-northwest winds aloft. Moisture content will slowly
increase thanks to the monsoon, and with decent flow at the mid-
levels daily shower and thunderstorm activity will pick back up
again. Storms will fire over the mountains each day before the
steering flow pushes things onto the eastern plains. High
temperatures will remain on the warm side until about Friday, where
we may cool down a bit heading into the weekend as a slightly
stronger disturbance may push through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

KALS...

VFR next 24 hours with Dry and warm with breezy southwest winds
in the afternoon.

KCOS...

A chance of some thunder late this afternoon. East southeast
winds this afternoon shifting to northerly with outflow around 00
UTC. Otherwise VFR next 24 hours.

KPUB...

VFR next 24 hours. Easterly winds this afternoon with gusty
northeast winds after 00 UTC, with winds dying off by mid evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Added the eastern San Juans to the Red Flag Warning and Fire
Weather Watch as fuels have become critical in this district
according to the Forest Service.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ223>225-229-
230.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ223>225-229-230.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...Hodanish
FIRE WEATHER...Hodanish

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-081715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1101 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing all convective hazards,
are expected to occur across parts of the southeast plains this
afternoon and evening. Although all of the eastern plains will have
a chance of a strong to severe storm, the highest probabilities of
severe storms will be east of a line from Calhan to La Junta to
Kim. Hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 75
mph and a tornado or two will be possible.

The best chance of tornado activity will be over Kiowa, Bent,
Prowers and Baca counties this evening.

Critical fire weather conditions will occur today across the San
Juan mountains, the San Luis Valley, the Southern Mountains and
the Southern I-25 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered storms will be possible Tuesday Night over
the Palmer Divide and parts of the eastern plains. Wednesday will
be drier, but starting on Thursday daily afternoon showers and
storms will be possible over the higher terrain and parts of the
plains.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday over the San Luis Valley and possibly over our southeast
mountains and adjacent lower areas, due to dry conditions and
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
214 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

COZ084-085-072045-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
214 PM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern El Paso
County through 245 PM MDT...

At 214 PM MDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm over Falcon,
or 14 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Peyton around 225 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Calhan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 10473 3904 10472 3905 10418 3882 10430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 279DEG 30KT 3897 10461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

kam