Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Pueblo, CO

311 
WWUS55 KPUB 271953
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
153 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

COC025-272015-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-230527T2015Z/
Crowley CO-
153 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MDT
FOR CROWLEY COUNTY...

At 153 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Crowley, or 23
miles northwest of La Junta, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Ordway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10351 3835 10351 3811 10379 3811 10384
      3813 10386 3812 10390 3813 10390 3813 10391
      3812 10391 3813 10395 3814 10395 3852 10389
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 190DEG 17KT 3820 10388 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KTS

117 
WWUS55 KPUB 271955
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
155 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

COC025-272015-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-230527T2015Z/
Crowley CO-
155 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL CROWLEY COUNTY...

At 154 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Crowley, or 23
miles northwest of La Junta, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Ordway, Sugar City and Crowley. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 10377 3818 10394 3852 10389 3852 10351
      3835 10351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 205DEG 24KT 3821 10387 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KTS

957 
WWUS55 KPUB 272005
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
205 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

COC025-272015-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-230527T2015Z/
Crowley CO-
205 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL CROWLEY COUNTY...

At 205 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ordway, or 25
miles northwest of La Junta, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Crowley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 10388 3822 10393 3838 10391 3838 10389
      3832 10369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 205DEG 24KT 3828 10383 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KTS

430 
WWUS55 KPUB 272006
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
206 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

COC025-272016-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-230527T2015Z/
Crowley CO-
206 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CROWLEY COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 215 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3820 10388 3822 10393 3838 10391 3838 10389
      3832 10369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 199DEG 17KT 3824 10387 

$$

KTS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 AM MDT Sat May 27 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 432 AM MDT Sat May 27 2023

Key Message:

1) Strong to severe thunderstorm threat continues this afternoon and
   evening across the southeast plains.

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate moderate southwest flow aloft across the region, as a broad
upper trough continues to slowly translate across the Intermountain
West and Great Basin. Water vapor imagery is also indicating the
tail end of an embedded short wave lifting out across south central
Colorado with regional radars indicating a line of showers and
embedded thunderstorms moving northeast across the mid and upper
Arkansas River valley into the Pikes Peak region early this morning.
Regional radars also indicate ongoing storms across northeastern New
Mexico into the TX/OK Panhandle with diffluence along the northern
edge of upper ridge across the southern Rockies.

For today and tonight...could see a few shra/tsra across the
southeast plains through sunrise, as the embedded wave continues
into northeastern Colorado. Southwest flow aloft then progged to
increase again, as the main upper trough across the Great Basin
starts to lift out across western Colorado this afternoon and into
northeastern Colorado later tonight. Models remain consistent with
drier air, noted across eastern Utah and the Four Corners, to move
into western Colorado with dew points mixing out into the 20s to
lower 30s across the ContDvd and into south central Colorado this
afternoon. Further east, low level moisture to remain in place with
persistent low level east to southeast flow, with the potential for
stratus and patchy fog along and north of the Highway 50 Corridor
through mid morning. Latest models continue to indicate SBCAPE of
1000-2000 j/kg across the plains again this afternoon, with
soundings indicating the far southeast plains remaining capped
through the afternoon. Further west, solar heating, upslope flow and
slowly increasing uvv ahead of the main upper trough to allow for
isolated showers and storms to develop over the Central and Eastern
mts through the afternoon, with storms increasing in coverage and
intensity as they encounter a more unstable airmass generally east
of the I-25 Corridor and southeast plains late this afternoon and
evening. Models do indicate induced lee low across the southern I-25
Corridor this afternoon, which continues east through the evening,
leading to enough shear to support possible supercell development,
along with increasing SRH, especially across the far southeast
plains, to support an increased threat of tornadoes. Latest HREF
guidance does indicate a few reflectivity paintballs across the
Eastern Mts and I-25 Corridor this afternoon, which increases in
coverage across the far southeast plains through the evening. With
that said, the SPC marginal outlook, generally along and east of the
I-25 Corridor, continues to look good, with hail up to 1.5 inches in
diameter and strong outflow winds of 60 to 70 mph the main threats
from storms today, along with locally heavy rainfall. The threat of
an isolated tornado will also be present, especially late in the
afternoon and evening across the southeast plains. Otherwise, storm
threats further west will be gusty winds up to 50 mph and lightning.
Convection looks to diminish from west to east through the evening,
with clearing skies through the overnight hours.

Temperatures to warm slightly today, with highs in the 70s to mid
80s across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 50s and 60s
across the higher terrain. Drier air across western portions of the
the area will lead to overnight lows at or below seasonal levels,
with lows in the lower 30s possible across the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 432 AM MDT Sat May 27 2023

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

Key messages:

1) Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the far
eastern plains, as well as excessive rainfall, on Sunday.

2) Isolated to scattered convection across most areas, especially
along the eastern mountains, for Monday and Tuesday.

3) Increasing convection chances all area along with slightly cooler
temperatures Wednesday into Friday.

Sunday...Upper closed low and the associated trough starts to
strengthen over the West Coast, while an upper disturbance crosses
the weak flow across CO. Overall, convection is expected to be far
more limited on Sunday with just isolated activity over the higher
terrain, and scattered storms over the Palmer Divide and far eastern
plains. There will be larger reserve of moisture to fuel storms near
the KS border, with model CAPE of 2000-2500 j/kg, and even though
bulk shear is only forecast to be around 30 kts, strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of Kiowa, Bent,
Prowers and Baca counties late afternoon into the evening. These
stronger storms will also be capable of producing some heavy
rainfall rates, and WPC has highlighted the same area for potential
excessive rainfall. Temperatures will stay warm and seasonal, with
highs in the 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for
the plains.

Monday and Tuesday...The upper low to the west parks over central CA
for Mon and Tue, while a temporary ridge of high pressure attempts
to take hold over NM, CO and the Panhandles. This will allow
southerly surface winds to settle in, continuing to draw up more
gulf moisture to the plains as well as continued warm temps. The
influx of llvl moisture should help motivate a bit more convection
across the forecast area during the afternoon and eve both days,
though higher chances for storms will be along the eastern mts. High
temps will remain seasonal.

Wednesday through Friday...The closed low to the west finally begins
to move on Wed, and though extended models offer a variety of timing
differences, the general consensus is that the low will start to
open and push towards the Great basin on Wed, then cross CO and the
Rockies sometime Thu before exiting on Fri. This will bring
extensive cloud cover, widespread showers and thunderstorms and a
slight cooling to the maximum temps into the weekend. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat May 27 2023

KCOS...

Isolated thunderstorms are likely in and/or around the KCOS
region during the ~ 20-22 UTC time frame, otherwise VFR next 24
hours with diurnal wind flow.

KALS and KCOS....

VFR conditions anticipated with diurnal wind flow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1146 AM MDT Sat May 27 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-281800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1146 AM MDT Sat May 27 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

High resolution convective allowing computer guidance continues to
indicate thunderstorm activity will be much more isolated over the
southeast plains this afternoon and early evening as compared to
the last few days. The best chance of thunderstorms today will be
over the Pikes Peak region, and down along the Colorado and New
Mexico border. Other more isolated thunderstorm activity will be
possible over the remainder of the plains.

The best chance for storms across the Pikes Peak region will be
between 2 pm and 4 pm.

One or two of the storms over the plains may be severe, producing
hail up to the size of ping-pong balls, and wind gusts to 65 mph.
the best chance for severe storms will be over El Paso county,
mainly east of the interstate.

Over the mountains, very isolated thunderstorm activity is
expected this afternoon.

As warm temperatures persist through the Holiday weekend, high
and fast flows can be expected across area rivers and streams due
to melting snowpack, especially across the eastern San Juan
mountains and into the San Luis Valley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Available moisture slowly decreases from west to east across the
region on Sunday and Monday. This will keep daily chances of
higher based isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers
and storms over and near the higher terrain. These storms will
produce more wind than rain, with the continued threat of cloud to
ground lightning. Further east across the far southeast Plains
and especially along the eastern border, low level moisture will
increase the threat of a few stronger storms producing hail and
locally heavy rainfall.

As warm temperatures persist through the Holiday weekend, high
and fast flows can be expected across area rivers and streams due
to melting snowpack, especially across the eastern San Juan
mountains and into the San Luis Valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

34/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1241 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

COZ086-271915-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
1241 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pueblo
County through 115 PM MDT...

At 1240 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles south of Avondale, or 30 miles southeast of Pueblo, moving
north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Pueblo
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 10431 3784 10442 3816 10430 3804 10406
      3794 10406 3785 10415 3780 10430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 199DEG 18KT 3788 10434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
114 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

COZ086-089-093-271945-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-Crowley County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
114 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Otero,
southwestern Crowley and east central Pueblo Counties through 145 PM
MDT...

At 114 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Fowler, or 33 miles southeast of Pueblo, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Fowler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3783 10411 3798 10429 3809 10424 3824 10415
      3814 10354 3791 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 228DEG 14KT 3795 10416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
116 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

COZ086-271945-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
116 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Pueblo
County through 145 PM MDT...

At 116 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Pueblo Reservoir, or 12 miles southwest of Pueblo,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Pueblo, Salt Creek and Blende.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 10473 3805 10489 3830 10481 3833 10470
      3832 10457 3823 10448 3816 10443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 209DEG 17KT 3811 10473

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTS