Severe Thunderstorm Warning 428, NWS Pueblo, CO

863 
WWUS55 KPUB 192326
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
526 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

COC055-071-089-101-192345-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0428.000000T0000Z-230719T2345Z/
Otero CO-Huerfano CO-Las Animas CO-Pueblo CO-
526 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO...NORTH CENTRAL LAS
ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES...

At 525 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles northwest of Timpas to 10 miles northwest of
Delhi to 13 miles northwest of Thatcher, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Delhi and Timpas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 10357 3765 10379 3756 10414 3767 10438
      3783 10441 3790 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 260DEG 12KT 3787 10391 3777 10410 3770 10421 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ehr

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
443 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 358 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Key Messages:

1) The risk of strong to severe storms continues late this afternoon
into the late evening hours across most of the plains.

2) Severe risk returns on Thursday, with more widespread and intense
severe storms expected across the plains.

Latest radar imagery showing thunderstorm development increasing in
coverage and intensity across parts of the I-25 corridor. Low to mid
level trough axis helping to support thunderstorm development across
El Paso county and the Palmer Divide at this time, with additional
focus supporting more isolated development over the Raton Pass. A
few storms have been severe across El Paso county already, and think
this risk for hail to around quarter size and wind gusts of 60 to 70
mph will continue into early this evening. While storms continue to
likely develop along the far southern I-25 corridor this afternoon,
should see storms develop further south/southeast into Pueblo County
and the remaining southeast plains this afternoon into the evening.
Current trough axis to the north is anticipated to sag south with
time today, with the likely expanding thunderstorm development
moving into an area of higher moisture and instability. Dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s across the plains and steep low to mid level
lapse rates are supporting SBCAPE values in the 2000 to 4000 j/kg
range, with the highest tied to the CO/KS/OK borders. This moisture
and instability, focus, and shear in the 30-40kt range should
support increasing coverage of severe storms into the plains late
this afternoon into the evening. In this environment, also
consisting of high DCAPE values, think wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph
will remain possible along with hail in the 1-2 inch range. Once
again this risk will be possible anywhere across the plains into the
evening, however, do think coverage will increase with the most
widespread severe storms appearing likely along and east of La
Junta, before these storms move to the east late this evening.

Another day of severe storms is appearing likely on Thursday, over
much of south central and southeast Colorado. Not only does this
include the areas along and to the east of the I-25 corridor, but
locations over and adjacent to the southeast mountains will be at
risk as well. Strong mid level trough with additional low/mid level
focus will help support thunderstorm development across north
central Colorado by midday and early in the afternoon, which will
then dive south southeast into the area not too far after that. It
will be following an instability axis right into southeast Colorado
consisting of 2000-2500 j/kg and quite possibly higher in spots.
Along with instability, another day of shear of at least 40kt and as
surface flow backs with the approaching trough, will see increases
in helicity. Initial development early in the afternoon across the
southeast mountains and I-25 corridor, will be discrete with all
hazards of 2-3 inch hail, winds of 60-70 mph, and even a tornado or
two expected. As these storms move into the eastern plains, CAMS are
showing this development congealing more into a forward propagating
MCS. This seems reasonable given the setup and while large hail will
be a risk, think destructive winds consisting of 80 mph will be the
larger risk. Steadily moving storms should limit the flooding risk,
but it wouldn't take much for development to stall and support at
least isolated flash flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Key Messages:

1) Strong linear thunderstorms expected over the plains. 70 to 80
mph wind gusts, hail up to 1" in diameter, and QLCS tornadoes are
all possible after 6PM on Thursday.

2) Flash flood concerns over the Spring Creek Burn Scar on Friday.

3) Dry and hot after Friday. Weak monsoon plume develops midweek
next week.

Meteorological Discussion:

Thursday Night and Friday:

A strong quasi-linear thunderstorm is expected to make its way over
the southeastern plains at the beginning of the long term forecast
period. The SPC has put our eastern plains in an Enhanced Risk for
severe weather tomorrow.  There is some debate about the intensity
and if one could call it an MCS, but the main point is that the
linear storm structure will primarily be producing very strong winds
and torrential rain. Hail will still be a risk, but very large hail
is not expected. We are expecting these storms to have a lot of
energy to work with - the lower end models have around 2000 J/kg of
CAPE whereas the more aggressive models have around 4000 J/kg of
CAPE, so the question isn't really if storms will become severe, but
how intense they will become. On the lower end of the spectrum, wind
gusts up to 60 mph are expected, but the more realistic outcome
would be 70 to 80 MPH. Also, QLCS tornadoes will be in play, as
well.

By Friday, primarily the southern I-25 corridor and southern Sangre
de Cristo Mountains will be impacted by thunderstorm development. A
little over 1000 J/kg of CAPE will be present with surface to 700
hPa easterly flow towards the Sangres, which will aid in convection
initiation, which will occur around 1 to 3 PM. Main risk will be
gusty outflow winds of up to 60 MPH and hail up to an inch in
diameter. Most concerning will be flash flooding over the Spring
Creek Burn Scar. Temperatures will be cold as compared to the last
few days on Friday with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s over
the plains, the 80s over the mountain valleys, and the 60s to 70s
over the mountains.

Saturday through Thursday:

Hot temperatures return as an upper level high pressure builds
overhead. Expect temperatures in the 100s over the plains and the
upper 80s to 90s over the mountain valleys. Precipitation will
become morse scarce after Friday, with daily development confined
to over the mountains and coverage increasing as the week
progresses. By Thursday however, there does appear to be the
strongest signal for a monsoon plume connecting the SW to southern
Colorado. When this occurs there will be more widespread
thunderstorm activity over the mountains and the plains. Flash
flooding over the burn scars will be on our radar.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 441 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Active weather continues at the start of the period, with showers
and thunderstorms remaining likely across the TAF sites into the
evening hours. Still think COS and PUB will have the highest chances
for thunder, while primarily rain is expected at ALS. Once again,
gusty outflow winds in the 30-40 kt range will remain possible at
all sites this evening. Thunder potential will end by mid evening,
though isolated rain showers will remain possible slightly longer
into the evening. After dry weather through Thursday morning, will
see thunderstorm chances quickly return to COS and PUB during the
afternoon hours. While thunderstorms may be more isolated, there is
the potential for these storms to be severe with large hail and
damaging winds the main risks. Will need to monitor this period
closely, and add additional thunder details if needed.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-201745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1140 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
today, spreading eastward across the I-25 corridor and southeast
plains from mid-afternoon into the evening hours. To the west of
Interstate 25 over the mountains and interior valleys, lightning and
gusty winds of 50 to 60 mph will be the main storm risks, and a few
of the stronger storms may also produce some small hail and brief
heavy rainfall. Along the I-25 corridor, expect wind gusts to 60
mph and hail to the size of quarters. Farther east across the
plains, storms will be stronger, with wind gusts up to 70 mph,
hail to golf ball size and heavy rainfall possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected on Thursday, with some of the storms likely becoming severe
over the plains. Torrential rainfall is anticipated with some of
these storms, with flash flooding possible. A few of the severe
storms may contain large hail of 2 inches or greater in diameter
and damaging winds potentially as high as 70 mph. A brief tornado
or two will also be possible over the southern plains, mainly
east of the I-25 corridor.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Friday, mainly over the eastern mountains and along the I-25
corridor. Some of these storms may contain hail greater than an
inch in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph or greater.

Thunderstorm activity will begin to ramp back up again over the
inner mountain west with increasing chances of thunderstorms over
the Continental Divide through the mid part of next week as the
monsoonal pattern becomes more pronounced.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

RODRIGUEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
417 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

COZ085-086-192245-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
417 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central El
Paso and north central Pueblo Counties through 445 PM MDT...

At 417 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Penrose, or 21 miles northwest of Pueblo, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pinon and Pueblo West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern and east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10491 3858 10489 3855 10454 3838 10465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 288DEG 23KT 3852 10484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
426 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     Hail             8 NNE Yoder             38.96N 104.18W
07/19/2023  M1.00 inch       El Paso            CO   Trained Spotter

            Largest hail stone was 1.1 inches. Time is
            estimated.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
426 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

COZ087-088-192300-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
426 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Huerfano and north central Las Animas Counties through 500 PM MDT...

At 425 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 9 miles northeast of Walsenburg, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Walsenburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 10481 3778 10467 3776 10427 3741 10448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 282DEG 14KT 3769 10463

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
430 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

COZ071-074-075-192315-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Southern San Luis Valley CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
430 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Huerfano, southern Costilla and southeastern Conejos Counties through
515 PM MDT...

At 430 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
San Acacio, or 26 miles southeast of San Luis Valley Airport, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Spring Burn Scar south of Highway 160 in Huerfano county,
San Luis, Mesita, Cuchara, San Acacio, San Pablo, Sanchez Reservoir,
Jaroso, Chama and Garcia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10599 3742 10557 3741 10502 3700 10552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 231DEG 17KT 3718 10552

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
436 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

COZ086-088-093-094-192300-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
436 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Otero,
north central Las Animas and southeastern Pueblo Counties through 500
PM MDT...

At 436 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Delhi, or 36 miles southwest of La Junta, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Delhi.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 10412 3767 10422 3785 10400 3764 10375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 245DEG 23KT 3768 10409

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
437 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

COZ076-077-083-192300-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
437 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Fremont
County through 500 PM MDT...

At 437 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Texas Creek, or 15 miles northeast of Hayden Pass Burn Scar, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Texas Creek and Royal Gorge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 10572 3849 10572 3853 10564 3849 10529
      3830 10540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 281DEG 18KT 3845 10554

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe