Severe Thunderstorm Warning 404, NWS Pueblo, CO

219 
WWUS55 KPUB 152315
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
515 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

COC071-152330-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0404.000000T0000Z-230715T2330Z/
Las Animas CO-
515 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 514 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Segundo, or 18 miles southwest of Trinidad, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southern Las Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 10485 3707 10470 3700 10459 3699 10460
      3699 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 323DEG 17KT 3699 10475 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ehr

712 
WWUS55 KPUB 152328
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
528 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

COC071-152338-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0404.000000T0000Z-230715T2330Z/
Las Animas CO-
528 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3702 10485 3707 10470 3700 10459 3699 10460
      3699 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 323DEG 17KT 3695 10471 

$$

Ehr

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
221 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Key Messages:

1) Showers and Thunderstorms the rest of Today into this evening.
Strong to severe more likely over southern I-25 and the Raton.

2) Mostly dry and hot Sunday.

Currently...

Showers and thunderstorms have already started popping up across the
eastern mountains, Palmer Divide, and Raton Mesa. Currently the
strongest storms are up over El Paso and Teller Counties, assisted
by the terrain. However, dewpoints in those areas are on the lower
end (only in the 40s over most of El Paso) which may work to limit
storm strength somewhat. Still expecting marginal to possibly low-
end severe. SPC mesoanalysis is currently showing between 1000-2000
J/kg of CAPE, not an enormous amount but still enough for storms,
while bulk shear is over 40 knots across the board. As of now, the
most supportive air is still over southern I-25 and the Raton, so we
will be watching that area closely for more rapid development in the
coming hours.

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to form off of our eastern
mountains this afternoon, before pushing southeast into better air.
Storms will intensify into strong to severe as they get south of
Pueblo County, and with plenty of shear in place the chances of
supercells increases greatly. Storms will be capable of large hail
and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall is expected as well, but
if storms keep moving southeast then flash flood potential should be
somewhat limited, although some short-term guidance does have storms
lingering over El Paso County for a few more hours which could cause
some hydro concerns. The tornado threat for this evening is still
low but definitely non-zero given the shear, with the areas of
greatest concern being along the New Mexico border.

Storms should clear the CWA before midnight, if not sooner, and
conditions will be dry the rest of tonight. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the 50s-60s over most of the areas, with the
valleys cooling into the high-40s.

Sunday...

Sunday still appears to be much warmer and quieter across our CWA.
The upper-level ridge will continue to build in just to our west
while northwest flow continues aloft. However, weaker winds will be
moving in overhead and the synoptic forcing will push to the
northeast of us. High temperatures will soar beneath large-scale
subsidence, with mid-high 90s over much of the eastern plains and
low-90s over the high valleys and mountains/plains interface. Some
very isolated showers will be possible in the afternoon, but would
mostly just be some weaker, high-based showers over the southern
Sangres.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Key Messages:

1) Hot and dry Monday and Tuesday

2) Modest cooling trend and better chances for precipitation
starting mid week.

.Monday and Tuesday...Upper ridge continues to move eastward and
flattens on Tuesday, with the ridge axis over the CWA.
Temperatures will approach daily record high values on Monday and
Tuesday. NBM values ties the daily records at ALS. At COS and PUB,
NBM highs are slightly below the daily records, with the NBM 75
and 90 percentile meeting or exceeding the daily record highs.
Models moisten the mid level slightly on Tuesday with increase
chances for some high based convection mainly over the mountains.
This may cool temperatures slightly on Tuesday, where any storms
develop. HeatRisk suggest heat advisory values for the southern
I25 corridor where forecast minimums are in the upper 60s Monday
night. Later shifts can evaluate any heat advisories, as daytime
temperatures are in the high risk category for the southern I25
corridor and the San Luis Valley.,

Have some concerns for fire weather issues on Monday and
Tuesday with humidities below critical values. Land mangers
indicate fuels in fire weather zones 225, 228, 229, and 230 are
critical. Winds speeds appear to remain below critical values on
Monday, but may increase slightly on Tuesday to be above critical
fire weather values.

Daily high records
     Mon (7/17)       Tues (7/18)
ALS...92...2005        92....1989
COS...96...2019        98....2003
PUB..105...2003       105....2022

.Wednesday through Saturday...As disturbances move over the
ridge, the ridge amplifies and retrogrades to the west with a mean
trough in the midwest. This pattern would tend to increase
upslope flow over the eastern plains and into the eastern
mountains. The upslope flow will bring an increase in low level
moisture. Also, modest monsoon plume develops with and increase in
mid level moisture.

From the eastern mountains and eastward, there will be a modest
cooling trend with increase chances for convection during the
afternoon and evening. The ensembles and operational models
highlight Thursday and Friday for the best chances for storms. On
Thursday and Friday, QPF increases on the plains and ensembles
show the best chances for higher CAPE.

For the high valleys and remaining mountains, there will be an
increase in the coverage of diurnal convection. The ensemble means
have PWAT approaching normal values, but suspect the models may
be moistening too quickly. Expect storms to be fairly high based
with generally modest QPF. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours, with some gusty
northwest winds to 20 knots for a few hours this evening.

KCOS: Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the area this
afternoon into early evening. Storms are already close to the
terminal, and some light rain is expected to briefly move overhead.
Storms could also produce gusty outflow winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Cigs will be reduced close to MVFR conditions. Winds are
currently expected to stay southeast, but thunderstorms could
produce more erratic gusts if too close by. Some guidance shows more
isolated showers drifting close to the terminal around 02Z, with
fairly low confidence. Could produce some gusty outflow winds and
light rainfall close to the terminal. All precipitation will be away
from the terminal by 06Z tonight, after which calm VFR conditions
prevail.

KPUB: VFR expected, although showers and thunderstorms will be in
the area starting around 22Z this afternoon. Thunderstorms will
produce some gusty outflow winds, although at this time no
precipitation is expected at the terminal. Storms should be out of
the immediate area by 01Z, after which VFR conditions prevail
through 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-161730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1118 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the eastern
mountains and parts of the plains today. Storms will develop across
the mountains through early afternoon before spreading into the
adjacent plains and the I-25 corridor. A few thunderstorms are
expected across the Pikes Peak Region mid-afternoon, and could
produce hail up to 1 inch in diameter along with gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.

Stronger to severe storms will be possible over the Raton Mesa and
the southern I-25 corridor this afternoon into early evening,
forming over adjacent mountains before moving southeast. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing hail 1 to 2 inches
wide, damaging winds of 60-70 mph, and heavy rain with localized
flash flooding possible. There will also be a low end threat for
isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Much above average temperatures are becoming increasingly likely
Sunday through Tuesday, with Monday expected to be the hottest day
of the extended period. These temperatures could increase the
heat risk and heated related issues for the region.

More widespread thunderstorm activity is forecast to return to the
region Wednesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/06

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
344 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

COZ074-088-152215-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
344 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Las
Animas County through 415 PM MDT...

At 343 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Trinidad, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Starkville, Hoehne and Raton Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 10462 3725 10455 3730 10433 3728 10405
      3700 10405 3699 10455
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 293DEG 9KT 3715 10442

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
357 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

COZ088-094-152230-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
357 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Las Animas
County through 430 PM MDT...

At 356 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thatcher, or 35 miles northeast of Trinidad, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Delhi and Thatcher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 10393 3755 10424 3769 10416 3767 10406
      3764 10406 3764 10390 3757 10348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 305DEG 32KT 3750 10401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
413 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

COZ086-152245-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
413 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Pueblo
County through 445 PM MDT...

At 413 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blende, or near Pueblo, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Avondale around 430 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 10464 3833 10463 3832 10430 3809 10428
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 270DEG 16KT 3823 10450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
428 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

COZ074-088-152300-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
428 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Las
Animas County through 500 PM MDT...

At 427 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Trinidad to near Cokedale to near Segundo.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Cokedale, Starkville, Boncarbo, Segundo and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 10429 3709 10453 3707 10488 3718 10501
      3731 10449 3723 10426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 287DEG 28KT 3722 10449 3719 10462 3715 10487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
453 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

COZ074-088-152330-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
453 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Las
Animas County through 530 PM MDT...

At 452 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Trinidad to near
Starkville to near Segundo. Movement was south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Cokedale, Starkville, Segundo and Raton Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 10492 3718 10473 3724 10449 3700 10418
      3699 10481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 343DEG 20KT 3712 10438 3708 10457 3708 10485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
500 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

COZ088-094-152330-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
500 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Las Animas
County through 530 PM MDT...

At 459 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Thatcher, or 37 miles northeast of Trinidad,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Las Animas
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 10410 3758 10387 3733 10361 3728 10400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 294DEG 12KT 3745 10394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Ehr