Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Pueblo, CO

982 
WWUS55 KPUB 072103
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

COC071-072115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-230707T2115Z/
Las Animas CO-
303 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 303 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 15 miles southwest
of Kim, or 27 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Las Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 10361 3717 10342 3717 10340 3700 10347
      3700 10365 3701 10373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 276DEG 17KT 3708 10354 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Key Messages:

1) Areas of fog early this morning across El Paso County.

2) Strong to severe storms once again expected across much of the
plains this afternoon and evening.

Convection has since exited the area early this morning, pushing
well southeast into Kansas and Oklahoma. Generally dry weather in
place, though low stratus is once again in place from the mid/upper
Arkansas Valley east into much of the plains. Lowest ceilings
continue to be across El Paso county and in this location have
observed some periodic drizzle or very light rain. Do expect this
trend to continue over the next couple of hours along with some
areas of fog across El Paso County. Vis was reduced to a mile or
less during the overnight hours, but have noticed an improving trend
here recently. While fog will likely persist, think the likelihood
of any widespread dense fog is low at this time. This is especially
as most guidance is noting an improving trend through mid morning.
Think this trend is valid, as guidance is in fair agreement with
surface winds becoming more westerly here soon. This now deeper
westerly flow should help with clearing skies over much of the
plains during the morning hours. Sunnier conditions should help
support warmer temperatures today, though a southward moving front
will likely help keep temps north of the Highway 50 corridor
slightly cooler.

Another day of strong to severe storms is expected over the plains
as the persistent westerlies aloft usher in additional shortwave
energy this afternoon. The front/trough will likely push in this
morning, with a steadier easterly component into the southeast
mountains already in place prior to the afternoon hours. As the
energy overhead this afternoon, 700mb flow will also be shifting
more easterly. This will support thunderstorm development over/near
the southeast mountains, which will push into the I-25 corridor this
afternoon. Dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 50s, quite
possibly around 60 in spots, especially as the front will likely
help to reinforce this low level moisture. This will help support
another day of SBCAPE values of 1000-2000 over most of the plains,
and while shear values in excess of 40kt are once again observed. In
this environment, once again, expect strong to severe storms this
afternoon as storms move into the I-25 corridor. Think the front
dipping south north of Highway 50 is limiting the height of the EL
in this location, helping to keep CAPE slightly lower. Nonetheless,
hail from 2 to 2.5 inches along with wind gusts to 70 mph will be
possible.

Similar trends expected later this afternoon into the evening hours,
with development shifting to the eastern plains. In this location,
higher dewpoints well into the 60s and CAPE approaching 2500 j/kg
will be in in place. This will support similar hazards and quite
possibly slightly bigger hail and stronger winds. The risk of
tornadoes doesn't appear to be as high today, though still can't
rule out one or two anywhere across the plains today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

Key Messages:

1) Strong to severe storms will remain possible into the weekend.

2) Warmer and drier for the late weekend into early next week.

No change to the active pattern during this period, as strong to
severe storms are once again possible on Saturday. Some returning
stratus will likely occur again early Saturday morning with similar
clearing trends expected during the morning hours. Confidence on any
fog early Saturday morning is low, but would not be surprised to see
at least some patchy fog. These clearing conditions will help set
the stage for another active day across the plains. Similar
pattern/forcing will help storms develop over/near the southeast
mountains and then once again move into the plains. Some slightly
lower CAPE values, but 1000-1500 appearing possible. Flow aloft does
actually increase, as the upper jet pushes overhead. So, while CAPE
may be slightly lower, bulk shear values look to be stronger. So,
once again, expect another day of possible severe storms capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.

Another day of possible strong to severe storms across the plains on
Sunday, with no real big change to the higher low level moisture and
instability, along with stronger flow aloft. Not overly confident
with coverage of storms at this time, with guidance varying to the
extent of this development. This could be due to some upper ridging
expected during this time. Mid level trough moving through looks to
bring another round of thunderstorms on Monday but after this
period, should see drier weather return along with warming
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

VFR conditions are currently in place at KPUB and  KCOS, but are
expected to drop to IFR and possible LIFR criteria at both stations,
mainly after 09Z. They should improve again at both stations after
14Z or shortly thereafter tomorrow morning. SHRA and TSRA is also
expected to be possible in and around the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB,
with greater confidence of this occurring at KCOS after 21Z and at
KPUB after 22Z. If TSRA does develop and move over station, it could
temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria and result in
periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds. VFR conditions VFR
are expected at KALS throughout the forecast period and winds at
this terminal should be more diurnally influenced with gusty SW'ly
winds during the afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will be
mainly synoptically driven at both KCOS and KPUB with east-
southeasterly flow near the surface remaining persistent throughout
most of the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...STEWARD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1150 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-081800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1150 AM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the plains
this afternoon into the evening hours. Development initially over
and near the southeast mountains will move into the I-25 corridor
this afternoon, and then into the remaining plains through the
evening hours. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
hail of two to two and a half inches and wind gusts to 70 mph. The
risk of tornadoes doesn't appear to be as high today, though
still can't rule out one or two anywhere across the plains today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Strong to severe storms will remain possible across the plains
Saturday and again Sunday. All hazards consisting of large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected over the
Continental Divide Region, San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas
River Valley. Gusty southwest winds and low daytime humidities are
expected through at least Sunday. Next week, low daytime
humidities are expected, but winds will become lighter.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

STEWARD/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
233 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

COZ084-085-072100-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
233 PM MDT Fri Jul 7 2023

...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
southeastern El Paso County through 300 PM MDT...

At 233 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Ellicott, or 22 miles east of Colorado Springs,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Yoder and Truckton around 250 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 10406 3865 10405 3864 10454 3899 10461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 266DEG 34KT 3883 10441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

MG