Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Pueblo, CO

763 
WWUS55 KPUB 060451
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1051 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

COC009-099-060501-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-230706T0500Z/
Prowers CO-Baca CO-
1051 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3766 10219 3780 10206 3779 10204 3755 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0451Z 302DEG 24KT 3760 10186 

$$

mw

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
336 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...Stronger to severe storms are possible over the far eastern
plains this evening and even a greater chance of severe thunderstorms
again tomorrow...

Key messages:

1) The Potential of severe storms will be over the eastern plains
through the early evening hours. Very large hail of 2 inches or
greater in diameter is possible, as well as gusty out winds greater
that 60 mph.

2) A few thunderstorms will occur over the higher terrain tomorrow
afternoon and then make their way over the plains by late afternoon.
Some of these storms will likely become severe, especially over the
eastern plains.

3) Severe storms tomorrow will bring a possibility of large hail and
damaging winds, and even an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
over the far eastern plains.

Detailed discussion:

Currently and through tonight...

The latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a sufficient amount of MLCAPE
present over the eastern plains to support further strengthening of
updrafts and intensification of thunderstorms. The caveat is the
amount of convection inhibition (CIN) in place which also looks to
remain in place over a majority of the plains, but does lessen a bit
closer towards the CO/KS border. Looking at satellite imagery, there
has been some erosion to the stratus deck over the southern I-25
corridor, which may have helped to break some of the capping in this
area and imminent thunderstorm formation will likely occur over this
area as a result. There are also a few storms showing up on
reflectivity over Douglas county that may produce an outflow that
moves southward and helps to mix out the stratus in El Paso County.
If this occurs, it may help to sustain development and further
intensification of any thunderstorms moving off the Pikes
Peak/Rampart range over the next few hours as surface heating allows
for the lower levels to become more unstable.

Persistent east-southeasterly flow in the lower levels is going to
continue to bring in more saturated air throughout the evening with
dewpoints getting into the low 60s as far west as La Junta.
Depending on how much of the stratus mixes out will determine just
how unstable it will become over the eastern plains by later this
evening. There has already been breaks in the clouds periodically
throughout the course of the day over parts of the lower Arkansas
River Valley, which may have helped to destabilized the mixed layer
a bit more in these areas. If so, MUCAPE could be anywhere between
1500 and 2000 J/kg, especially if there is better clearing taking
place and the convective temperature is achieved. With that in mind,
a strong to severe thunderstorm may occur, given that there is also
40 to 50 kts effective bulk shear available. If storms do form, they
will be capable of producing large size hail of 2 inches or greater
in diameter, as well as strong outflow winds of 60 mph. In addition,
with increasing lower-level helicity over the eastern plains as the
evening progresses, an isolated tornado or two can also not be ruled
out.

Low level moisture is going to remain in place over the plains with
a stratus deck reforming and overcast skies will be expected again
tonight. There could also be some areas of patchy fog possible,
especially over northern El Paso County with upsloping over this
area. It will be generally mostly clear over the higher terrain.
Lows will be around the upper 50s to the low 60s fore the plains,
and 40s to low 50s for high country.

Tomorrow...

The low level stratus deck is going to stick around until the late
morning/early afternoon hours tomorrow. This will keep the
environment near the surface well saturated, with dewpoints likely
remaining in the 50s through the course of the day all the way
backed up against the I-25 corridor. This will further enhance the
destabilization and allow for very high CAPE values of 3000 J/kg and
greater to make it back to the Sangre de Cristo and Mosquito
Mountains and eastward. This conditionally unstable environment,
along with effective bulk shear of greater than 70 kts and steep
lapse rates by later in the afternoon to set the stage for there to
be some very severe storms if capping (CIN) is limited and depending
on how quickly the lower level stratus deck mixes out, which again
will be the caveat. However, with all of these parameters in
consideration, if storms do become severe, they will likely produce
extremely large hail of possibly 3 inches in diameter and perhaps
strong outflow winds of 70 mph or greater. Tornadoes will also be
possible, especially east of the I-25 corridor and north of Highway
50. I have greater confidence that further east over Baca County and
extending towards the northwest over Bent and Crowley counties will
likely have the best potential for large supercell formation (and
tornadogenesis) as surface based helicity is the best over these
areas right around the time of max heating. High temperatures will
be warmer tomorrow over the plains as the airmass becomes more
modified and about the same elsewhere.  -Stewey

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Key messages:

1) Daily chance for strong to severe thunderstorms along the I-25
Corridor and across the eastern plains through the extended period.

Models indicate that the upper pattern over the next week or so does
not change dramatically, with a relatively flat ridge of high
pressure remaining over the Desert SW and Southern Plains of the
US, while a large upper low persists over Canada and dipping down
into the Great lakes region. This pattern will keep Colorado under
west to northwest flow, with multiple disturbances/shortwaves
crossing the Rocky Mt region. Timing of these shortwaves will be
key, as they will serve as the upper trigger which will interact
with easterly surface flow and a wavering dryline.

Thursday night through Friday...Plenty of elements coming together
for severe weather across the eastern plains tomorrow night, with 0-
6 km bulk shear of 55-65 kts and 2500-3500 j/kg CAPE. Best area will
be east of a line stretching from Baca County up to the northwest
through Crowley and El Paso counties, and activity will likely last
until 10 or 11 PM. at this time, it looks like the full range of
severe threats will be present, though greatest probability will be
damaging wind gusts and very large hail. Moving ahead into Friday,
temps start to climb to around 90F across the plains. Plenty of llvl
moisture will remain, so there will be another shot of severe
weather across the plains during the afternoon though the focus area
looks to be a bit smaller, centered across Kiowa, Bent and Prowers
counties. Bulk shear will again be anywhere from 50-60 kts, with
model CAPE coming in slightly lower at around 2000 j/kg. Still,
another potentially very busy day.

Saturday and Sunday...Storm activity starts to decrease over the
weekend as the upper ridge starts to edge to the west, with
scattered storms on Sat becoming much more isolated on Sunday.
Models do hint at extensive morning cloud cover across the eastern
plains on Sat, leading to a slower warm up and slightly lower max
temps. A much faster heat up is then expected for Sun.

Monday through Wednesday...Long range models show that the ridge
axis shifts west of the Four Corners as it amplifies slightly,
increasing the hot and dry bubble over CO. There will still be a
daily shot of isolated storms, mainly over the higher terrain, while
temps will climb to above normal for the high valleys, to normal or
slightly above normal for the eastern plains. Look for highs in the
upper 80s to around 90F for the high valleys, and in the 90s for the
plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 336 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

MFVR conditions are currently in place for KCOS and KPUB, with IFR
and possible LIFR criteria returning again with lowering CIGs by
later this evening. They should improve again at both stations after
15Z or shortly thereafter. SHRA and TSRA could be possible in and
around the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB, although there is lessening
confidence of this if low CIGs stick around longer and keep the
capping in place. If TSRA does develop, it could temporarily reduce
CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria and result in periodic windshifts
and increased wind speeds for all terminals. VFR conditions VFR are
expected at KALS throughout the forecast period and the threat of
VCSH/VCTS is very minimal tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be mainly
synoptically driven with morning for KCOS and KPUB with east-
southeasterly flow near the surface. At KALS, winds will be more
diurnally influenced and increase out of the southwest with gusts up
to 30 kts possible. Winds will become more diurnally influenced at
KCOS and KPUB towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Colorado Fire Zones 221 through 225 will see increasing fire
danger through the extended period due to expected low RH levels
and gusty winds each afternoon. This includes the Sangre de Cristo
Mts, the San Luis Valley, the western half of Fremont County, and
areas west. Latest fuels information still indicates that fuels
in these areas are green, but we will continue to monitor fuel
conditions as the meteorological conditions will likely work to
dry fuels out.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...STEWARD
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-061300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1101 AM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over and near the
southeast mountains, as well as the plains, this afternoon and
evening. Strong to severe storms will be possible, with hail to
the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 70 mph being the main
hazards. A few tornadoes can't be ruled out.

The risk for strong to severe storms across the Pikes Peak region
and I-25 corridor this afternoon, will likely shift to the
southeast plains this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday, Friday and
Saturday across portions of the Eastern Plains. Large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the primary storm
risk. Locations from the Palmer Divide, southeast into the Plains
will have the highest potential at seeing these strong to severe
storms. Thunderstorms will once again be possible Monday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected along the
Continental Divide, San Luis Valley and Sangre de Cristo Mountains
each afternoon and evening through the weekend due to gusty winds
and low humidity values. We will continue to monitor fuel
conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

STEWARD/27

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
948 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 S Cheraw              38.05N 103.52W
07/05/2023  M79 MPH          Otero              CO   ASOS

            ASOS station KLHX La Junta Airport.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
949 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Hail             4 SSE Manzanola         38.05N 103.84W
07/05/2023  M3.00 inch       Otero              CO   Trained Spotter

            Piing Pong to 3 in hail reported.

&&

mw

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
955 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     Hail             La Junta                37.99N 103.54W
07/05/2023  M3.00 inch       Otero              CO   Law Enforcement

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1009 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     Hail             1 WNW Las Animas        38.07N 103.24W
07/05/2023  M1.00 inch       Bent               CO   Trained Spotter

            Winds gusting over 60 mph. 0.85 inches of
            rain in 15 minutes. Hail and rain destroyed
            garden.

&&

mw

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1012 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Las Animas          38.07N 103.24W
07/05/2023                   Bent               CO   Trained Spotter

            Window on north side of house blown out with
            by wind and hail.

&&

mw

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1015 PM MDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     Hail             2 WNW Rocky Ford        38.06N 103.75W
07/05/2023  M1.00 inch       Otero              CO   Trained Spotter

            Heavy rain with minor flooding at this time.

&&

mw