Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
349 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...Stronger to severe storms may be possible along the Palmer Divide
and over the eastern plains this afternoon and early evening...

Key messages:

1) The Potential of severe storms will be over the eastern plains
through the early evening hours. A few showers and storms could be
possible elsewhere, but everything should diminish by around 9 PM or
shortly thereafter.

2) Low clouds will fill in over the plains throughout the night and
there could be some areas of patchy fog developing over the Palmer
Divide area during the early morning hours.

3) Strong to severe storms will be possible again tomorrow over the
plains during the late afternoon hours and through the evening.

4) Notably cooler tomorrow over the plains with temperatures being
in the upper 60s and 70s, and around 15 degrees below the seasonal
average.

Detailed discussion:

Currently and through tonight...

The major shortwave trough that is propagating over north-central
CONUS and an associated low pressure system to the northeast is
currently forcing a cold frontal boundary through the CWA. As the
boundary continues to push southward, the cold pool will advect in
higher dewpoints over 50 degrees, yet there will also be increase
convective inhibition (CIN) as well and therefore the lower levels
may become too stable for additional storms to materialize behind
the front. Ahead of it, as the front moves through the eastern
plains, with increasing CAPE and shear later this evening of values
of 2000 J/kg or greater, along with higher dewpoints with southerly
winds may cause storms to develop and become severe if the the
convective temperature breaks the cap. This looks to be mainly north
of Highway 50, over eastern Kiowa County where the potential of
severe storms will be, although the NAMNest has been consistent with
some storms forming further south over Prowers and Baca counties.
The HRRR now also shows there being a line of storms forming along
the Bent/Prowers and Las Animas/Baca county lines and then becoming
a line echo wave pattern (LEWP) as storms merge and move eastward
into Kansas. A stronger or severe storm could also develop over the
Lamar area later in this evening, right along the theta-e axis.

Hodographs are still relatively straight-lined and therefore the
storms will have a possibility of splitting and continue to be
mainly wind and hail producers. If the LEWP does come to fruition,
this could also pose a strong straight-line wind threat over the far
eastern plains to the CO/KS border. Over the rest of the CWA will
exist the chance of showers and possibly a very isolated
thunderstorm through the rest of the evening, although with the
lower levels much more stabilized, confidence is low of any storm
becoming strong. Showers should continue to dissipate, especially
after 9 PM. Skies will continue to clear over the higher terrain and
low stratus will form and fill over the plains through the night,
there could also be some areas of patchy fog over the Palmer Divide
as soundings show saturation occurring all the way down to the
surface by the early morning hours tomorrow. Lows will drop into the
upper 50s to low 60s over the plains, and in the 48s and 50s for
high country.

Tomorrow...

The easterly low-level flow over the plains is going to continue to
advect in cooler and more saturated air with dewpoints in the 50s
banking up against the southeastern mountains and Pikes Peak/Rampart
Range. This will allow for the plains to become conditionally
unstable with a "classic day 2" setup in place as belt of CAPE
develops along the I-25 corridor with values shooting up above 2000
J/kg for some areas over the southern part. The challenge will be
how long the low levels stick around in the morning hours depending
on how long it takes for them to mix out that will determine if
things become unstable enough to support intensification of storms
as they move over. If it clears out enough, then the convective
temperature could break the cap over some locations of the plains
and result in rapid intensification of thunderstorms as they move
over and could become severe. However, most locations could remain
too capped over the plains.

Storms will initially develop over the eastern mountains, but there
could also be some storms developing over the central mountains and
perhaps a few storms over the southwest mountains that move over
into the San Luis Valley, although the environment looks to be much
less favorable over these areas. Another contributing factor to
storms rapidly intensifying over the plains will be very strong
effective bulk shear of up to 60 kts over southern portions of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and downwind over the southern I-25
corridor. Right now, most CAMs are showing this area, near the Raton
Mesa and eastward over Las Animas and Baca counties with having the
best chance of stronger updraft development, which makes sense since
this area is the most conditionally unstable. There could also be
stronger storms that form and move off the Pike's Peak area and over
Colorado Springs. With inverted V soundings and relatively high
DCAPE values, if a storm does become severe over the plains, the
main threat will be gusty outflow winds. There could also be some
large hail, possibly up to 2 inches in diameter over the southern I-
25 corridor and southeastern plains. It will be notably cooler over
the plains, around 15 degrees below the seasonal average, with the
easterly flow in place. Although for the higher terrain, highs will
top out at or even slightly above the seasonal average where
northwesterly flow dominates. -Stewey

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Wednesday night-Friday night...Models continue to indicate minor
waves embedded within moderate westerly flow aloft across the
Intermountain West through the Northern High Plains through the end
of the work, as upper level high pressure builds across the Southern
High Plains through the Southern Rockies and into the Desert
Southwest. This will keep generally dry, warm and breezy conditions
across western portions of the area through this period, with
meteorological critical fire conditions likely through the afternoon
and evenings. The latest fuel status from land management agencies
remains non critical, however, will need to continue to monitor as
said warm and breezy conditions prevail. Further east, we will
continue to see daily chances of showers and storms, with severe
weather possible, as low level moisture ebbs and flows across the
southeast Plains. SPC has the southeast plains in a marginal to
slight risk of severe storms on Thursday, with similar conditions
expected on Friday. Temperatures across western portions of the area
to be at to slightly above seasonal levels through the period, with
near to below seasonal temperatures expected across eastern
Colorado.

Saturday-Tuesday...The upper high remains progged to build across
the Great Basin and into central Rockies through the weekend,
leading to a warming and drying trend areawide. The ridge over the
Rockies flattens again into early next week, leading to a slow
increase in available moisture and increasing chances of showers
and storms, especially across eastern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS throughout the
forecast period. At KCOS and KPUB, VFR conditions are expected to
persist for the most part until around 01Z at KCOS and 07Z at KPUB,
then will deteriorate to IFR and possibly LIFR criteria as low CIGs
move in, along with reduced VIS in BR and remain that way until
around 15Z, then CIGs should begin to lift back to at least MVFR
criteria, but could still be IFR criteria at times. SHRA and
possibly TSRA may still be in the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB through
the rest of the evening until around 05Z at KCOS and 07Z at KPUB.
SHRA and TSRA are expected to be in and around the vicinity of KCOS
and KPUB, and possibly KALS in the afternoon tomorrow, primarily
after 18Z and for the rest of the forecast period. VCTS was left out
the TAF for KALS due to there being lesser confidence of this
occurring at this station. If SHRA/TSRA does develop, it could
temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria at any one of
the stations later this afternoon/evening. It could also result in
periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds at for all terminals.
Winds will be synoptically influenced at all terminals due to a
disturbance moving over Colorado. NE'ly winds will continue at both
KCOS and KPUB, where there could be gusts as high as 25 kts, then
they will continue to veer towards the E-ESE by tomorrow morning and
remain that way through tomorrow. At KALS, winds will be
predominantly out of the SW this afternoon and gust as high as 22
kts this evening, then begin to become more diurnally influenced as
they weaken tonight and increase again and become gusty out of the
SW by late tomorrow morning, towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1154 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-051800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1154 AM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated shower and thunderstorm development over the higher terrain
early in the afternoon will move into the plains by mid to late
afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are then expected later
this afternoon into the middle part of the evening across the
plains, with the highest chances along and north of the Arkansas
River Valley. The main hazards with any severe storm will be hail to
the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph.

The risk of severe storms will lower in the mid to late evening time
frame, but at least isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible during this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Plains
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts and an isolated tornado will be the thunderstorm risks.
All of the Eastern Plains will see a severe thunderstorm risk on
Wednesday, and areas east of a Colorado Springs to Kim line
Thursday and Friday.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend over the
higher terrain. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
possible early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

STEWARD/23

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Hail             4 SSE Schriever AFB     38.75N 104.49W
07/04/2023  M1.00 inch       El Paso            CO   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

COZ088-093-094-042130-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Otero
and north central Las Animas Counties through 330 PM MDT...

At 256 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thatcher, or 38 miles northeast of Trinidad, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tyrone, Delhi and Thatcher.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10401 3744 10424 3778 10402 3756 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 227DEG 13KT 3754 10399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
307 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

COZ079-083-086-042130-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
307 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...A cluster of developing strong thunderstorms will impact portions
of southeastern Fremont, northeastern Custer and west central Pueblo
Counties through 330 PM MDT...

At 307 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Florence, or 12 miles north of Junkins Burn Scar, moving northeast at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Penrose and Wetmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 10500 3832 10520 3850 10506 3819 10474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 232DEG 8KT 3832 10514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     Hail             14 NNE Pueblo Depot     38.50N 104.18W
07/04/2023  E0.75 inch       Pueblo             CO   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

COZ083-085-086-042200-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
325 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Fremont, southwestern El Paso and northwestern Pueblo Counties
through 400 PM MDT...

At 324 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Penrose, or 18 miles northeast of Junkins Burn Scar, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Western Pueblo, Pueblo West, Pueblo Reservoir, Salt Creek and
Penrose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near the Pueblo Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 10488 3839 10509 3864 10488 3814 10450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 226DEG 14KT 3837 10498

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PS

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