Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Key messages:

1) Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
afternoon and evening.  Areas along the New Mexico border will see
the highest chances for severe storms.

2) Thunderstorms over El Paso County will have heavy rainfall,
leading to an elevated flash flood threat.  A Flash Flood Watch has
been issued for this afternoon.

Currently...satellite imagery shows a broad upper low stretching
across Utah and Colorado early this morning.  All thunderstorm
activity has dissipated.  Winds are light across the region, and
areas of fog have developed, mainly along and north of Highway 50.
Visibility has been around 1 mile, and patchy areas of less than a
mile.  Temperatures are currently running in the upper 40s to lower
50s across the region.

Today...complicated forecast with showers and thunderstorms expected
this afternoon.  The upper low is forecast to sit across northeast
Colorado, while an upper vort max quickly shifts eastward across
northern New Mexico into southeastern Colorado by early afternoon.
Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is forecast to drop south over the
Palmer Divide this afternoon, as a surface low strengthens near
Trinidad.  Heating this morning will help destabilize the
atmosphere, with CAPE values reaching around 1000 j/kg along the I-
25 corridor by mid day.  Further southeast, over eastern Las Animas
and Baca Counties, CAPE values will be higher, around 2000 j/kg.  0-
6km shear values are forecast to increase this afternoon as the vort
max moves across the area, and range from near 30 kts north of
Highway 50, to near 40 kts south.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop around noon over the
Pikes Peak Region, south along the I-25 corridor, and track
eastward.  These storms are forecast to develop along the frontal
boundary.  The main storm risks over the Pikes Peak region will be
locally heavy rainfall.  Most of El Paso County saw very heavy
rainfall yesterday, and soils are already saturated.  Area streams
and creeks are also running high.  Any additional rainfall, which
there could be up to an inch or more with storm cores, will likely
lead to flash flooding.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for El
Paso County for this afternoon and evening.  In addition to the
heavy rainfall, the strongest storms will be capable of producing 1
inch diameter hail and wind gusts over 50 mph.

Stronger storms are expected south of Highway 50.  A surface low is
forecast to develop near Trinidad by early afternoon.  This will
help pull winds southeasterly, as the vort max moves east across the
southern portion of the area.  This will lead to better shear.
Storms over this area will develop by mid afternoon.  The main storm
risks will be hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to near
60 mph.  Helicity values are somewhat higher due to the backed
surface winds, and an isolated tornado threat will be present
through the afternoon ito the evening.

Tonight...the upper low is forecast to slowly drift into west
central Kansas overnight, and the vort max will lift northeast into
central Kansas.  This will allow for shower and thunderstorm
activity to track east across the Plains, clearing into Kansas after
3 AM.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Key messages:

1) Thunderstorm coverage decreases for Wednesday and Thursday but
ramps up again for Friday as another cold front drops southward
bringing the potential for MCS development across eastern CO.

2) Severe thunderstorm potential returns for Thursday for far
eastern plains, and possibly for more or all of the southeast
plains for Friday depending on instability

2) Drying and warming trend sets up for late weekend into early next
week.

Upper trough across eastern portions of the state pushes eastward
into KS Wednesday with rising upper heights across CO as the
upper ridge translates/builds in from the west. Thunderstorms will
be much less widespread on Wednesday and mostly confined to the
mountain areas. With pockets of CAPE up to 750 J/kg in some models,
will need to watch the burn scars across the eastern mountains
for potential flash flooding as precipitable waters are still
elevated, though overall risk looks low. With light westerly
steering currents a few showers may spill off into the adjacent
lower elevations in the evening but soundings are drier in the low
levels with some locally gusty winds the primary risk.

An upper trough in southwest flow moves across the area on Thursday
with southerly surface winds advecting 50+ dew points
northwestward into portions of the southeast plains during the
afternoon. With stronger flow aloft, deep layer shears increase
again to around 40 kts, supportive of severe storms where CAPE is
sufficient. Position of the dry line will the primary driver for
severe thunderstorm location with models showing SBCAPE in the
1000 to near 2000 J/kg range across portions of Kiowa, Bent,
Prowers and eastern Baca counties. Storms could have a greater
wind risk farther west across El Paso county where soundings have
a more inverted V structure. A boundary enhanced by convection
will drive southward or westward through the plains Thursday night
as thunderstorms push east southeastward into KS. This may set
the stage for another more widespread severe thunderstorm day
across the southeast plains on Friday depending on the quality of
low level moisture return and afternoon instability. Another
upper trough will be moving in from the west on Friday providing
good upper level forcing, and with easterly surface winds beneath
westerly flow aloft, deep layer shears should be around 40-50+ kts
across much of the region which will be supportive of severe
thunderstorms. Much will depend on the available instability, but
pattern recognition along with the EC and GFS suggest 1000+ J/kg
will be doable Friday afternoon, with a low level jet riding
overtop mid level baroclinic zone Friday evening supporting
possible MCS development across eastern CO into Friday night.

Saturday will see residual moisture across the plains with another
round of showers and thunderstorms possible early in the day before
the upper trough finally pushes eastward into the central plains.
Southwest flow brings in drier air and lower precipitable waters
into western CO on Saturday which spreads into the plains Sunday and
Monday. This will really tail back thunderstorm chances for Sunday
into early next week, with dew points dropping into the 20s and
30s across much of the region. This pattern change will finally bring
above climo temperatures to the region with values climbing into
the 90s by early next week. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

KALS...VFR. High based showers and thunderstorms will be in the
vicinity Tuesday afternoon. The storms will produce gusty outflow
winds.

KCOS and KPUB...Thunderstorms will develop Tuesday afternoon. The
storms could be strong with small hail and locally heavy rain.
Coverage is expected to be high enough at KCOS for a TEMPO group
with TSRA while only left VCTS in the TAF for KPUB. After
convection ends, expect VFR. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ084-085.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PGW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1137 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-141745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1137 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are expected across the area today. The
strongest storms are expected mainly over eastern Las Animas and
Baca Counties, and could produce hail up to the size of golf balls
and winds in excess of 60 mph. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out as well.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the remainder of the
plains and Pikes Peak Region today into this evening as well, and
may produce heavy rainfall, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and winds
up to around 50 mph. Torrential rains could lead to flooding
concerns in El Paso County.

Be aware of high stream flows and unstable stream banks from fast-
moving water, especially around Fountain Creek and the Lower
Arkansas River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms will be possible each day from Wednesday through
Saturday. The main risk from thunderstorms will be locally heavy
rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds up to 50 mph. However,
there will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
across portions of the southeast Colorado plains Thursday through
Saturday where large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
risks. Localized flash flooding will be possible under the
stronger storms, especially where saturated soil conditions exist.
Please monitor the forecasts closely as stay weather aware over
the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/06

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
123 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

COZ086-132000-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
123 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Pueblo
County through 200 PM MDT...

At 123 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Pinon, or 9 miles northeast of Pueblo, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Pueblo Depot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 10459 3839 10460 3843 10439 3833 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 263DEG 13KT 3837 10450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
228 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

COZ086-089-132100-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-Crowley County CO-
228 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central
Crowley and northeastern Pueblo Counties through 300 PM MDT...

At 228 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crowley, or 23 miles northwest of La Junta, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ordway, Sugar City and Crowley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 10388 3826 10405 3836 10406 3850 10369
      3819 10352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 253DEG 13KT 3824 10382

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PS