Red Flag Warning 34, NWS Pueblo, CO

289 
WWUS85 KPUB 080200
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
800 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023


COZ224-225-081800-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-230508T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.230508T1700Z-230509T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0026.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
800 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 224 AND 225...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
224 AND 225...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224 and 225.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ229-230-233-081800-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-230508T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.230508T1700Z-230509T0100Z/
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
800 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 229 AND 230...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
229 AND 230...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 229, 230 and 233.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ227-228-232-237-080300-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0033.000000T0000Z-230508T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
800 PM MDT Sun May 7 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227,
228, 232, AND 237...

Winds will wane overnight and humidities shoulder recover quickly
over the next few hours.

$$

772 
WWUS85 KPUB 080943
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 AM MDT Mon May 8 2023


COZ224-225-090145-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.230508T1700Z-230509T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0026.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
343 AM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224 and 225.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ229-230-233-090100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.230508T1700Z-230509T0100Z/
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
343 AM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 229, 230, AND 233...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 229, 230 and 233.

* Winds...Southeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

636 
WWUS85 KPUB 082052
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
252 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

COZ224-091300-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0026.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0035.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0027.230510T1700Z-230511T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230509T0100Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
252 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
224...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has
also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch for gusty winds and low
relative humidity is in effect from Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening. The Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday is no 
longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ225-091300-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0026.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0035.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230509T0100Z/
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-
252 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
225...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday. The Fire Weather Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 225.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ229-230-091300-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0035.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230509T0100Z/
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
252 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
229 AND 230...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
229 AND 230...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 229 and 230.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ221-222-226>228-091300-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0035.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
252 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221,
222, 226, 227, AND 228...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 221, 222, 226, 227 and 228.

* Winds...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ233-090100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230509T0100Z/
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
252 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
233...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 233.

* Winds...Southeast 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 17 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

351 
WWUS85 KPUB 082132
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
332 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023


COZ224-091345-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230509T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0035.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0027.230510T1700Z-230511T0300Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
332 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
224...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 224...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 224.

* Winds...For Tuesday, southwest winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts
  up to 35 mph. For Wednesday, southwest winds at 25 to 35 mph 
  with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ225-229-230-091345-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230509T0100Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0035.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet
Mountains/La Veta Pass-Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
332 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
225...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 225...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 225, 229 and 230.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ233-090100-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-230509T0100Z/
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
332 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
233...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 233.

* Winds...Southeast 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 17 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ221-222-226>228-091345-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0035.230509T1700Z-230510T0100Z/
Teller County/Rampart Range Including Pikes Peak and Florissant
Fossil Beds National Monument-
Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek-
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
332 PM MDT Mon May 8 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 221, 222, 226, 227, AND 228...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 221, 222, 226, 227 and 228.

* Winds...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023

Key Messages:

1)Critical Fire Weather conditions again this afternoon and evening
for portions of southern Colorado.

Currently...satellite imagery shows increasing mid and high clouds
across western Colorado spreading eastward early this morning.  A
weak surface boundary has backed west across the Plains helping
humidity values recover.  Temperatures are cool, with 40s and 50s
across the Plains, and 40s across the San Luis Valley.

Today...expect another round of critical fire weather conditions for
this afternoon and evening across much of southern Colorado.  Red
Flag Warnings are in place for the San Luis Valley, east into the I-
25 corridor.  Gusty winds, near 35 mph and low humidity values near
10 percent are forecast for this afternoon and evening.  The main
question will be how far east the westerlies mix.  Current model
guidance keeps the strongest winds west of a line from near Colorado
Springs, southeast to near Rocky Ford and Springfield.  If the
westerlies can mix further eastward, elevated fire weather
conditions could be possible further east to near Lamar.  We will
continue to monitor the conditions into this afternoon, but
currently think the going Red Flag highlights look good.

An embedded upper wave in southwesterly flow aloft will move across
north Central Colorado this afternoon.  Weak instability along with
the embedded wave may spark isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly from the La Garita Range, north across the
Central Mountains this afternoon.  A couple of storms may also be
possible over Teller County and the Palmer Divide later this
afternoon.  Lightning and wind gusts to near 40 mph may be possible
with stronger storms.

Afternoon highs today will reach into the 70s to 80s across the
Plains.  Highs across the San Luis Valley will reach the 60s.

Tonight...the upper wave will continue to lift northeast into the
northern Plains allowing for any storms that do develop to quickly
dissipate this evening.  A more robust surface boundary will drop
south across the Plains overnight, turning low level flow
northeasterly.  This will advect moisture back westward across the
Plains, allowing humidity values to recover overnight.  Overnight
lows will fall into the 40s by morning across the Plains, and upper
20s to lower 30s for the San Luis Valley.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023

Key Messages:

1) Threat for critical fire weather conditions through mid week,
mainly over the San Luis valley, southeast mountains and southern
I25 corridor.

2) Chances for some strong convection, especially near the Kansas
border, during mid week.

.Monday...Weak high pressure develops behind the departing trough
on Sunday, keeping weak upslope flow over the eastern plains for
much of the day. The weak upslope would tend to keep winds on the
plains from the southeast with slightly higher humidities.
Further west, the dry southwest flow aloft will likely bring
critical fire weather conditions to the San Luis Valley. Currently
looks as if there will be enough mixing for lower humidities over
the eastern mountains and southern interstate 25 corridor. Issued
a fire weather watch for these regions with the greatest chances
for critical fire weather conditions in the San Luis Valley. With
the southerly flow on the plains, there will be the chance for
some high based convection during the afternoon over the Palmer
Divide region.

.Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft increases as a trough moves into
southern California. At the surface, upslope flow increases over
the plains of Colorado. There is a fair amount of low level
moisture over the high plains which could be advected westward
into Colorado. Currently, there is a chance that enough moisture
will exist near the Kansas border for some stronger convection
during the afternoon. The NBM has around 1000 J/kg of CAPE near
KLAA and some of the models suggest the richer moisture making
into the Colorado. Main factors for convection would be the
strength of a cap as well as the lack of any disturbance. Current
grids have isolated convection near the border, which looks good.
However, will have to watch that any convection which develops
could be strong with the higher CAPE and shear. SPC outlooks have
the stronger convection in Kansas, which looks reasonable at this
time. There may also be enough moisture for some convection along
the Palmer Divide with the deeper upslope over northeast Colorado.
Otherwise, critical fire weather conditions are possible with the
best chances over the San Luis Valley, southeast mountains, and
southern I25 corridor.

.Wednesday and Thursday...Models are still struggling with the
timing of the trough as the EC and GEM have a slower solution.
General trends are to have the deeper moisture stay mostly north
of the CWA. One area for increased chances of convection would be
over the Palmer Divide westward in the mountains. Another area of
concern will be near the Kansas border. A dry line/trough will
likely develop over southeast Colorado and move eastward as the
upper trough approaches. Depending on timing of the system, some
stronger convection could develop along the dry line in eastern
Colorado on Wednesday before moving eastward in Kansas. The faster
GFS solution is more favorable for stronger convection with the
forcing and dry line over southeast Colorado Wednesday afternoon
and evening, while the slower EC has less favorable timing with
best forcing overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Most of the
convection will be out of the region Thursday with specifics
depending on the speed of the trough.

.Friday and Saturday...Not a lot of confidence in the specifics.
With the upper low north to northeast of the region Friday,
anticipate westerly flow over the region Friday. Depending on the
speed of the trough, there could be enough instability for some
daytime convection. On Saturday, ensembles and operational models
suggest usplope flow develops bringing moisture westward into
southeast Colorado. Broad upper low over the southwest could
enhance lift. Details are difficult to define at this time, but it
could be the start of a wetter period for southern Colorado.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS for the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds gusting up to 35kt
are expected at KALS this afternoon, and up to 30kt are expected for
KCOS and KPUB. Winds are expected to weaken after around 02Z this
evening. Mid-level cloud coverage is expected to increase for this
afternoon, with precipitation chances remaining low at all three
sites. Thunderstorms could develop within the vicinity of KCOS this
afternoon, but will likely remain off station over the higher
terrain north and west of the terminal. Gusty and variable outflow
winds up to 40kt are possible near virga and thunderstorms this
afternoon as well, especially in the vicinity of KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-225-
227>230-232-233-237.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ224-225-229-230.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...EHR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-081715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1104 AM MDT Sun May 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
evening across the San Luis Valley, east into the Interstate 25
corridor due to gusty winds and low humidity values.

A few thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon into the evening
from the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains.  A
couple of storms may also be possible over the Pikes Peak region,
into the Palmer Divide.  Lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph may
accompany stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Monday over the
San Luis Valley, southeast mountains, and southern Interstate 25
corridor. Critical fire weather conditions are also possible
Tuesday and Wednesday over these locations.

Thunderstorms are possible over the Central mountains and Palmer
Divide region Monday through Wednesday with the main threats
being gusty winds and lightning. Low level moisture will increase
near the Kansas border Tuesday and Wednesday, with a dry line
developing on Wednesday. Depending on the evolution of the weather
system, a few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday near the Kansas border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

EHR/23