Alert archive / Colorado / Red Flag Warnings in 2023
Red Flag Warning 29, NWS Pueblo, CO
NWS Pueblo, CO issued this red flag warning at Apr 19, 2023, 3:04 PM MDT for 17 counties in Colorado. It took effect at Apr 20, 2023, 11:00 AM MDT. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 19, 2023, 3:04 PM MDT (21:04 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 20, 2023, 11:00 AM MDT
- Expired
- Apr 20, 2023, 8:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Pueblo, CO
Counties Alamosa County, CO, Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Conejos County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Custer County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Fremont County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Rio Grande County, CO, Saguache County, CO
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 366 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3188 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 111 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 139 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
445 WWUS85 KPUB 192104 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 304 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 COZ224-227>233-201315- /O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0020.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0029.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0028.000000T0000Z-230420T0300Z/ San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- 304 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, AND 233... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, AND 233... The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday. * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232 and 233. * Winds...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * Relative Humidity...5 to 10 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ234>236-201315- /O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0029.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0028.000000T0000Z-230420T0300Z/ Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- 304 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 234, 235, AND 236... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 234, 235, AND 236... The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday. * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 234, 235 and 236. * Winds...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * Relative Humidity...5 to 10 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ222-225-201315- /O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0020.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0029.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- 304 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222 AND 225... The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday. * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222 and 225. * Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ237-200300- /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0028.000000T0000Z-230420T0300Z/ Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 304 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 237. * Winds...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Relative Humidity...near 5 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
5 follow-up statements
827 WWUS85 KPUB 200243 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 843 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 COZ224-227>236-201845- /O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0028.000000T0000Z-230420T0300Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0029.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- 843 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, AND 236... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, AND 236... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235 and 236. * Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ237-200345- /O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0028.000000T0000Z-230420T0300Z/ Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 843 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237... Cooling temperatures and weakening winds have eased fire danger across the area. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire. $$ COZ222-225-201845- /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0029.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- 843 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222 AND 225... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222 and 225. * Winds...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
478 WWUS85 KPUB 200539 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1139 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 COZ222-224-225-227>236-202145- /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0029.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- 1139 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222, 224, 225, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, AND 236... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222, 224, 225, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235 and 236. * Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
886 WWUS85 KPUB 200955 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 355 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 COZ237-210200- /O.EXA.KPUB.FW.W.0029.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 355 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 237... The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels, which is in effect from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening. * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 237. * Timing... * Winds...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent. * Temperatures...In the mid 50s. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ224-228>230-210200- /O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0021.230421T1700Z-230422T0200Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0029.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- 355 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 228, 229, AND 230... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 228, 229, AND 230... The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather Watch for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels, which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening. * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224, 228, 229 and 230. * Timing... * Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent. * Temperatures...In the upper 30s. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ COZ222-225-227-231>236-210200- /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0029.230420T1700Z-230421T0200Z/ Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- 355 AM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222, 225, 227, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, AND 236... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222, 225, 227, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235 and 236. * Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
886 WWUS85 KPUB 202049 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 249 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 COZ224-228>230-211300- /O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0021.230421T1700Z-230422T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0030.230421T1700Z-230422T0200Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230421T0200Z/ San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- 249 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 228, 229, AND 230... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 228, 229, AND 230... The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224, 228, 229 and 230. * Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Relative Humidity...5 to 10 percent today, 10 to 15 percent on Friday. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ222-225-227-231>237-210200- /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230421T0200Z/ Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 249 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222, 225, 227, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236 AND 237... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 222, 225, 227, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236 and 237. * Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * Relative Humidity...5 to 15 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$
634 WWUS85 KPUB 210142 RFWPUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 742 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 COZ224-228>230-211745- /O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230421T0200Z/ /O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0030.230421T1700Z-230422T0200Z/ San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache- Pueblo County Including Pueblo- Huerfano County Including Walsenburg- Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher- 742 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 228, 229, AND 230... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224, 228, 229, AND 230... * Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 224, 228, 229 and 230. * Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * Relative Humidity...As low as 6 percent. * Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. && $$ COZ222-225-227-231>237-210245- /O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230421T0200Z/ Fremont County Including Canon City/Howard/Texas Creek- Southern Front Range Including Sangre De Cristo Mountains/Wet Mountains/La Veta Pass- Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado Springs-Crowley County Including Ordway- Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands- Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon- Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas- Prowers County Including Lamar- Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands- 742 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 222, 225, 227, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, AND 237... Temperatures have cooled and relative humidity levels have risen above critical thresholds. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire this evening. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Apr 19, 11:23 AM MDT, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 19, 11:23 AM MDT, 3 hours 41 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023
Key Messages:
1) High fire danger continues today into this evening for a good
part of the region. Areas of blowing dust once again.
2) Strong cold front will cross the region during the mid evening
hours, Strong winds with fropa; G60 mph possible far SE plains
3) Light snow over the Central Mountains this afternoon and evening.
4) Some light snow N El Paso county this evening.
!! Spring in the High Plains/Rockies !!
Currently...
It is 64F in Pueblo CO at 2:30 AM. Yes...there is a steadfast
westerly wind blowing outside the WFO. In matter of fact, winds are
rather gusty over many sections along the mtns/plains interface as
Walsenburg is reporting winds gusting around 40 mph. As for temps at
this time, some 70s are being observed over eastern Pueblo county
extending into Crowley and Otero counties. while temps were in the
lower 50s across N El Paso into Kiowa-Bent-Prowers counties. Where
the colder temps were noted over the plains, a cool front had passed
and winds were in a NE component. This boundary can be seen both in
radar and 3.9 UM sat pix data. Elsewhere...in the larger valleys
temps were mild with M40s over these locations, Mtns were in the 20s
and 30s. Per composite radar, some light snow showers may be falling
the C mtns N of Cottonwood Pass.
Today...
An active day is likely over the region during the next 24 hours.
For today, we will be dealing with the cold front on the plains.
This boundary will likely continue to push slowly south and west
through the morning hours, stalling out along the (roughly) US50
corridor before it will be pushed back to the north by the strong
southwesterly winds which will develop by late morning over the
region. Red Flag warning are in effect for today for the plains and
San Luis Valley. For the S mtns, near critical to spotty critical
conditions will occur (especially in the lower elevations.)
As for temps, it will be 5 to 10F cooler across the region today as
compared to yesterday, but it will be windy once again all regions,
especially by later this afternoon.
Please do NOT do anything today which could start a
wildfire/grassfire.
As for snow, some light snow showers will be possible over the c
mtns this morning, with a much better chance by this afternoon. Some
light accums are likely higher elevations.
Tonight
A strong cold front will push down the plains, with the front
crossing the Palmer Divide during the 01-02 UTC time frame. When
this front goes by, you WILL know it as winds will abruptly shift
into the north and become quite strong. However the strongest winds
will occur over the far eastern plains (especially NE Kiowa county),
and winds may hit high wind criteria ( >50 knts ) with the fropa.
These strong winds will last for an hour or two after fropa then
decrease.
Snow showers (likely beginning as rain showers) will be likely
across the northern El Paso county by early to mid evening. Any
precip that does develop will end prior to midnight. I would not be
surprised if grassy surfaces become white, with an inch or so not
out of the question, It may come down rather heavy for a brief
period. The best chance of snow will be between 7 and 9 pm this
evening.
Snow showers over the central mtn areas will be decreasing this
evening.
Min temps tonight will return to more normal values as much colder
air will push southward with the front, and temps will likely be
below freezing most areas by sunrise Thursday (25-30F plains; aoa
20F SLV). Folks who turned on their sprinklers and swamp coolers may
have done it a bit too early... \/Hodanish
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023
Key Messages:
1) Precipitation chances increase for much of southern Colorado
throughout the day Thursday.
2) More critical fire weather conditions are becoming increasingly
likely Thursday.
3) Unsettled weather expected for the weekend and into next week,
with chances for precipitation and cooler air.
Thursday: The start of the long term period is expected to bring an
active day of weather to southern Colorado. Synoptically, a short
wave trough will push to the southeast over southern Colorado on the
backside of a longer wave trough across the central US, which is
strongly supported in both deterministic and ensemble model
guidance. As this wave approaches and passes over the region
throughout the day, both synoptic and orographic forcing will
increase, and given this, precipitation chances are also anticipated
to rise. The greatest chances will remain along the mountains, where
forcing will be greatest, and isolated to scattered light snow
showers are expected. Across lower elevations, a cold front will be
pushed southward late in the day as the short waves treks to the
southeast during the evening and overnight hours. This front, along
with upslope winds behind it, will allow for the development of more
precipitation across the I25 corridor and eastern plains. The
greatest chances for precipitation will remain along the Palmer
Divide and Raton Mesa areas, where surface upsloping will greatest,
and isolated to widely scattered light snow showers are anticipated.
With that said though, given the slight uptick in synoptic support
over the area, isolated light rain and rain/snow mix showers are
expected across the eastern plains as the front drifts southward. In
addition to precipitation concerns, fire weather conditions are also
likely to be a concern again as well. At the surface, a lee cyclone
is expected to develop in northern New Mexico in response to the
short wave over the region. As the cyclone deepens and pushes east,
it will tighten the pressure gradient across southern Colorado. In
response to this, winds are expected to increase, with gusty winds
to around 35-45 mph for much of the area. Along with that, as winds
start to increase and diurnal mixing become established, drier air
will be mixed to the surface, which is anticipated to drop humidity
values to around 10-12%. With the strong winds and dry conditions,
another day of critical fire weather conditions is becoming
increasingly likely for parts of southern Colorado. Looking at
temperatures, a cooler and more mild day is expected for the region.
A cold front from Wednesday night, and the reinforcement of cooler
air from the troughing pattern, will keep southern Colorado slightly
below average temperatures for this time of year.
Friday - Tuesday: For the rest of the long term period, an unsettled
weather pattern is anticipated for southern Colorado. Ensemble model
guidance is lessening the eastward extent of a building ridge across
the western US and is keeping a long wave trough across the
central/eastern US. Then on the backside of that long wave trough,
ensemble model guidance, and more easily seen in deterministic model
guidance, are short waves drifting along the western periphery of
the long wave trough. This pattern is expected to keep southern
Colorado in a mostly northwesterly flow regime, with occasional
short waves passing over the area. Overall, this pattern will keep
precipitation chances heightened across the region, but especially
across the mountains where forcing will be greatest and most
persistent. With that said though, the aforementioned short waves
will bring an enhancement to precipitation chances for southern
Colorado, and these features are what will bring the greatest
chances for precipitation across the lowers elevation. Trends with
how these show waves ultimately develop will need to watched
closely, as there are signals that these waves could bring more
impactful precipitation to the area. As for temperatures, a more
mild stretch of days is becoming likely. Temperatures are expected
to warm back closer to average values for this time of year, but the
troughing pattern across the central and eastern US may bring
reinforcing shots of cooler air, which could keep southern Colorado
slightly below average for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023
KALS...strong southwest winds will continue at the terminal into
this evening with gusts approaching 50 kts. This will likely
produce areas of blowing dust which may restrict visibility. Winds
should subside this evening into Thursday morning.
KCOS and KPUB...winds will increase and shift southwesterly this
afternoon with gusts of 40 to 45 kts possible. This may lead to
areas of blowing dust at KPUB which may restrict visibility. A
cold front will arrive at KCOS around 00z, and before 01z at KPUB,
shifting winds northwesterly. Winds will like gust just behind the
front to near 40 kts, before dissipating overnight into Thursday
morning. Mozley
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-227>233-
235>237.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ222-224-225-227>233.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ234.
&&
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEYHazardous weather outlook, Apr 19, 11:29 AM MDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1129 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 COZ058>089-093>099-201730- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 1129 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Widespread high fire danger will prevail through this afternoon from the San Luis Valley, eastward across the Plains. Low humidity values under 15 percent will combine with winds, 40 to 55 mph to produce the dangerous fire weather conditions. Please do not do anything outside that could cause a spark and start a wildfire. A strong cold front will cross the region during the early evening hours, and winds will abruptly shift to the north and gust to 40 to 60 mph for a couple of hours after the front goes by. The strongest northerly winds will occur over the far eastern plains, especially eastern Kiowa county. Snow will be possible this afternoon and tonight across the central mountains, and one to two inches accumulations will be possible. A brief period of snow may occur this evening over far northern El Paso county after the front goes by. A quick inch of snow could occur on grassy areas. Confidence in this occurring is low at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday High fire danger is expected to continue for southern Colorado due to gusty winds and low humidity values. Critical fire weather conditions are becoming increasingly likely Thursday, with more spotty critical fire weather conditions possible Friday. Periods of light snow are expected along the mountains starting Thursday, with on and off light snow showers through at least early next week. There chances of isolated to scattered light snow showers and rain/snow mix showers across parts of the I25 corridor and eastern plains Thursday night into Friday morning. Expected impacts from any snow continue to remain minimal at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight. 88/88
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Colorado, 2023Every red flag warning in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.