High Wind Watch 14, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1039 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key messages

- Potential for damaging winds overnight over east slopes of
  Teller County and northern El Paso County, along and west of
  I25.
- Snow continues for the mountains of Lake and Chaffee Counties.

.Today...Trough passes through the region during the morning with
some brief drying ahead of the next trough. Light snow will continue
over the mountains, mainly in Lake and Chaffee Counties with
generally light accumulations. Northwest flow aloft will increase
with breezy to wind conditions developing over much of the region.
Minimum RH on the plains flirt with being 15% or lower, but there is
not enough coverage to warrant and fire weather highlights. Winter
weather advisory begins at 2100 UTC, which may be a little bit early
for the heavier snow in the mountains of Lake and Chaffee Counties,
but wind will increase any impacts from the snow.

.Tonight...First concern is the winds. It will be windy over and
close to the mountains tonight with the gustier winds extending
eastward from the gaps in the mountains west of KPUB and K4V1. The
main question is if there will be damaging winds. There looks to be
a period this evening and later overnight where the wind profile
could result in high winds over the east slopes and lee of the
Rampart Range and in the lee of Pikes Peak. Issued a high wind watch
for this evening and overnight for Teller County and northern El
Paso County. In northern El Paso County the threat for high winds
will be along and west of I25. For Teller County the threat will be
along the east slopes of the mountains. DESI shows roughly a 50%
chance of gusts reaching high wind criteria this evening and
overnight. The grids have wind gusts just below high wind criteria
in these areas. It will definitely be windy in these areas, and the
main question is will the winds be sufficiently strong to reach high
wind criteria. It will also be windy over the remaining mountains,
but gusts will be below high wind criteria. DESI suggest that areas
along the west side of the Wet Mountain Valley may approach high
wind criteria. The second concern is snowfall over the mountains of
Lake and Chaffee Counties. Snow will increase tonight as the next
disturbances approach with northwest flow aloft. The windy
conditions will also amplify the impacts from the snow. --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key Messages:

- Additional snow expected across the higher terrain Sunday with the
focus across the central mountains.

- Very windy across the area Sunday.

Sunday...The trailing upper disturbance will be crossing the Rockies
Sunday morning, and coupled with the upper jet, will produce very
strong northwest flow for all of the forecast area as well as
continuing moderate snowfall for the central mts. An additional 4 to
8 inches of new snow can be expected over the central mts through
Sunday afternoon, but then quickly tapers off through the night. On
top of that, the strong gusty winds will produce areas of blowing
and drifting snow, and greatly reduced visibilities for travel over
mt passes. As for the mentioned wind, there is a window starting the
previous night and lasting through early Sunday morning where high
wind criteria MAY be met along the Rampart Range and in El Paso
County along and west of I-25. Therefore the High Wind Watch was
issued and following shifts will need to monitor model trends to see
if this threat continues.

The upper disturbance quickly pushes east Sunday evening, relaxing
the pressure gradient over Colorado and allowing winds to diminish
after 6 Pm or so. Any lingering snow over the central mts should
come to an end soon after midnight. Plan on high temps in the 40s
for the high valleys, and mid 40s to mid 50s for the plains.

Monday through Thursday...An upper ridge of high pressure builds
into the southwestern US, producing dry conditions, warming temps
and lighter winds. High temps are forecast to warm to near 50F for
the high valleys and into the 60s for the plains, meaning that much
of the week should experience afternoon warmth well above seasonal
normals.

Friday...The upper ridge axis pushes east of the state, with winds
aloft shifting to a more westerly then southwesterly direction as
the next Pacific storm system approaches. The track of this next
system is tough to discern this far out, but models are hinting at
snow returning to the mts some time on Fri. For now will maintain a
dry and warm forecast for much of the area, with isolated snow
returning to the Continental Divide by Fri afternoon. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1024 AM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

...Windy everywhere...with Wind Shear threat KCOS...

First...VFR all 3 sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS, next 24
hours...Otherwise winds are main concern:

KCOS...

Gusty WNW surface winds through sunset, then surface winds
decrease but Low Level Wind Shear threat develop late today (after
00 UTC) and lasts through the night time hours. After sunrise
tomorrow, low level wind shear threat decreases but surface winds
will once again become gusty from the WNW.

KPUB...

Gusty winds this afternoon decreasing early this evening. Winds
will pick up and become quite strong by mid morning tomorrow.

KALS...

Gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon with winds
decreasing after sunset. Gusty west winds will pick up again mid
morning tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
Sunday for COZ058-060.

High Wind Watch from 8 PM MST this evening through Sunday
morning for COZ081-082-084.

&&

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH

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