Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Pueblo, CO

208 
WGUS75 KPUB 272308
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
508 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

COC023-055-280000-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-230828T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Costilla CO-Huerfano CO-
508 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SPRING BURN SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN COSTILLA AND WEST 
CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTIES...

At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain over the Spring Burn Scar, mainly north of Highway 160. Between 
1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts 
up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the warning area could cause mud slides near 
steep terrain. Mud slides can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and 
other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Spring Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Spring Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Spring Burn Scar north of Highway 160, northwestern Spring Burn 
  Scar south of Highway 160 in Huerfano county, Spring Burn Scar 
  south of Highway 160 in Costilla county and La Veta Pass.

This includes the following high risk locations...
South Abeyta Creek near County Road 443, South Abeyta Creek near 
County Road 442, South Abeyta Creek near County Road 441 and Pass 
Creek Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause 
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks...streams...and 
ditches in the Spring Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can also be 
anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed away in 
places. If you encounter flood waters...climb to safety.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 10525 3768 10495 3752 10509 3752 10517
      3752 10528

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Ehr

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1136 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Key Messages:

1) Slightly more shower and thunderstorm activity expected today,
with a better chance for storms to move across the I-25 Corridor.

Currently...A good amount of cloud cover remains across the forecast
area early this morning, with a couple of lingering showers over the
southern San Luis Valley along the NM state line as of 230 AM. Temps
have cooled into the 50s to around 60F for most locations.

Today and Tonight...An upper ridge of high pressure remains across
the region, with the ridge axis directly over the Four Corners. This
has set up northwest flow aloft across the state, opening the door
for upper disturbances to enhance convection potential for the
forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to initiate
over the higher terrain by late morning to midday, then the
northwest flow aloft should help move activity off of the mts.
However, the focus area this afternoon and evening will shift to the
eastern mts and I-25 Corridor, due to east to southeast surface
winds across the eastern plains helping to force llvl moisture up
against the eastern slopes. Models indicate dewpoints in the 50s to
around 60F, and model CAPE is between 1000-1500 j/kg across the
eastern plains through the aftn. Bulk shear is somewhat light, but
there is enough moisture to tap into for a better chance of shower
and storm activity this aftn and eve. SPC has outlined the entire
area for general thunder, while WPC has drawn a Marginal area for
excessive rainfall essentially along the eastern mts and I-25
Corridor. Feel that excessive rainfall will not be much of an issue
today due to expected storm movement, but the area does show where
the focus for activity will likely be. Scattered to Likely precip
chances are expected by mid-afternoon over all of the higher terrain
and I-25 Corridor, then activity will start to shift slightly to the
east through the evening though the far east will most likely just
experience isolated showers and storms. Isolated to low end
scattered showers as well as a storm or two will linger late, well
past midnight.

Plan on high temps today in the 70s to around 80F for the high
valleys, and in the 80s for the plains. Tonight temps will moderate
under mostly cloudy skies, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s for
the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Key Messages:

1) Below average temperatures and wet start to the work week, with
numerous to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms expected.

2) Warming trend, with a decrease in precipitation coverage for the
midweek period.

3) Precipitation chances increase once again for the end of the week
and start of the next weekend.

Monday: The start of the work week will bring some inclement weather
to southern Colorado. A high pressure will be in place to the
southwest of Colorado, and will allow for northwesterly flow, with
weak embedded waves, to pass over the region. The weak waves, and
the modest flow strength, will allow for an uptick in synoptic
forcing/support and orographic forcing. In addition to this, winds
at the surface will have an overall northeasterly/east-northeasterly
component. This will provide additional forcing from the surface,
especially up along prominent terrain features. Along with all of
this, appreciable moisture will remain in place for one more day
across the area, especially along and east of the I25 corridor.
Given the forcing mechanisms in place, coupled with the moisture
still in place, scattered to widespread rain showers and
thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening. The
greatest coverage and intensity of precipitation is anticipated
along the Sangre de Cristo, Wet, and Rampart Mountains, along with
the I25 corridor, where an axis of greater instability will develop.
As for temperatures, another "cooler" day is in store for the area.
With increasing clouds during the afternoon, and easterly winds
still present, much of the area will remain neat to below average
for this time of year.

Tuesday - Thursday: During the midweek period, a downtick in active
weather is expected for the southern Colorado region. The
aforementioned high pressure will become squeezed eastward and
expand across the area. This will start to increase synoptic descent
over the region, and in addition to that, will also start to advect
drier air over the region. The combination of increasing descent and
drier air will lower precipitation chances for much of southern
Colorado, though a complete dry out is not expected. Isolated to
widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are still
anticipated along the mountains each afternoon, where local forcing
will still be present. Looking at temperatures, a warming trend is
expected for the area. Given the high pressure in place, along with
less cloud cover and precipitation, much of southern Colorado will
warm back to above average temperatures for this time of year.

Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and start of next week,
another stormy pattern is looking likely for the area. The high
pressure that was meandering around the area throughout the past
week will continue to drift eastward. As this takes place,
southwesterly winds will materialize on the backside of this
feature, and will begin to pull better quality moisture air into the
area. There is still some uncertainty in regards to how far east
this moisture plume gets, but the GEFS and EPS ensemble model
guidance are in at least good agreement about pulling up higher
moisture across the Continental Divide area, where precipitable
water anomalies are 100-120% of normal. So what does this all mean?
Ultimately, an increase in precipitation is expected, with the
highest confidence in precipitation remaining along the western
parts of the Pueblo forecast area. Temperatures though will warm.
With the high pressure still remaining the dominant synoptic
feature, much of the region will stay above average temperatures for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. SHRA and TSRA are
expected to be in and around the vicinity of all stations later in
the afternoon and through the evening, with a better chance of
occurrence at KCOS and KPUB. If SHRA/TSRA does develop, it could
temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. It could also
result in periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds at either of
the terminals. There could be some low CIGs developing, and possibly
reduced VIS in BR/FG at KALS during the morning hours between 10 and
16Z, although at this time there is not enough confidence to put
CIGs and VIS below 5SM in the TAF for KALS. Winds will be mainly
diurnally influenced at all terminals and generally light (below 10
kts).

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...STEWARD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1141 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

COZ058>089-093>099-281745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1141 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
this afternoon. The stronger storms will be capable of producing
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, increasing the flash flood
potential for area burn scars. The area with the greatest risk will
be across the Sangre de Cristo, Wet, and Rampart Mountains. Wind
gusts up to 40 mph and cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with the stronger storms as they push east across the I-25
corridor later this afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to linger late into the night for
much of the area, though storms are forecast to weaken and diminish
as they continue pushing to the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Numerous to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms are expected
Monday afternoon and evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially
for burn scars and urban areas. The area with the greatest risk will
be across the Sangre de Cristo, Wet, and Rampart Mountains, along
with the I-25 corridor.

Rain showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated to
scattered Tuesday and through Thursday with the greatest coverage of
precipitation remaining along the mountains. An uptick in rain
showers and thunderstorms is expected near the end of the work
week and start of the next weekend, and additional heavy rainfall
will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

STEWARD/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
229 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

COZ076-077-083-272100-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
229 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Fremont County through 300 PM MDT...

At 228 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Royal Gorge, moving southwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Torrential rainfall and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Royal Gorge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 10522 3838 10533 3853 10569 3870 10550
      3870 10535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 048DEG 23KT 3856 10535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Ehr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
234 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

COZ084-085-272100-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
234 PM MDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central El
Paso County through 300 PM MDT...

At 234 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peyton, or 23 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving south at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Torrential rainfall and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central El
Paso County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3901 10446 3900 10431 3884 10433 3890 10460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 013DEG 8KT 3897 10443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Ehr