Wind Advisory 4, NWS Phoenix, AZ

402 
WWUS75 KPSR 101225
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
525 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

CAZ562-110200-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0004.230110T1800Z-230111T0600Z/
Imperial County Southwest-
425 AM PST Tue Jan 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southwest corner of Imperial County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne. Minor tree damage 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ560-561-564-568-110200-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0004.230110T2000Z-230111T0300Z/
Joshua Tree NP West-Joshua Tree NP East-Chuckwalla Mountains-
Chiriaco Summit-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor, 
Lost Horse-Keys Village, Imperial Hot Mineral Springs, 
and Chiriaco Summit
425 AM PST Tue Jan 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western portion of Joshua Tree National Park, Eastern 
  portion of Joshua Tree National Park, Chuckwalla Mountains and 
  Chiriaco Summit.

* WHEN...From noon today to 7 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

228 
WWUS75 KPSR 101929
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1229 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

CAZ562-110600-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230111T0600Z/
Imperial County Southwest-
1129 AM PST Tue Jan 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southwest corner of Imperial County.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne. Minor tree damage 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ560-561-564-568-110300-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0004.230110T2000Z-230111T0300Z/
Joshua Tree NP West-Joshua Tree NP East-Chuckwalla Mountains-
Chiriaco Summit-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor, 
Lost Horse-Keys Village, Imperial Hot Mineral Springs, 
and Chiriaco Summit
1129 AM PST Tue Jan 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Western portion of Joshua Tree National Park, Eastern 
  portion of Joshua Tree National Park, Chuckwalla Mountains and 
  Chiriaco Summit.

* WHEN...From noon today to 7 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

962 
WWUS75 KPSR 110245
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
745 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

CAZ561-564-568-110345-
/O.EXP.KPSR.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230111T0300Z/
Joshua Tree NP East-Chuckwalla Mountains-Chiriaco Summit-
Including the cities of Imperial Hot Mineral Springs and Chiriaco
Summit
645 PM PST Tue Jan 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM PST THIS EVENING...

Winds have weakened below advisory levels and will continue to
gradually subside through the next few hours.

$$

CAZ560-110600-
/O.EXT.KPSR.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230111T0600Z/
Joshua Tree NP West-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor and Lost Horse-Keys
Village
645 PM PST Tue Jan 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Western portion of Joshua Tree National Park.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

CAZ562-110600-
/O.CON.KPSR.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230111T0600Z/
Imperial County Southwest-
645 PM PST Tue Jan 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest corner of Imperial County.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Difficult driving conditions, especially for larger 
  vehicles traveling along roads with crosswinds. Light, 
  unsecured objects may become airborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained wind speeds of between
30 and 40 mph are expected, or wind gusts of between 40 and
58 mph. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially
for high profile vehicles. In addition, strong winds over desert
areas could result in briefly lowered visibilities to well under
a mile at times in blowing dust or blowing sand. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

156 
WWUS75 KPSR 110554
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1054 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

CAZ560-562-110700-
/O.EXP.KPSR.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230111T0600Z/
Joshua Tree NP West-Imperial County Southwest-
Including the cities of Cottonwood Visitor and Lost Horse-Keys
Village
954 PM PST Tue Jan 10 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

Winds have weakened below advisory levels. However, gusty winds
may continue for another few hours.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1000 AM MST Mon Jan 9 2023

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Another dry and warm day for Monday before a transition in the
weather pattern results in cloudy skies and increased rain chances
for Tuesday. Cooler conditions on Wednesday will precede a warming
trend back to above normal by the weekend. Another weather system
over the weekend likely to hit the region, but will continue to be
monitored for further details going through this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The general flow pattern across CONUS consists of a ridging feature
across the forecast area, with the ridge axis east of the Rockies.
Further west, the weather pattern remains active across the
northeast Pacific basin, as polar troughing will remain the dominant
feature over the next week. These troughs will tap into the sub-
tropics, resulting in atmospheric river activity across the West
Coast for most of the next week. The amplitude of these troughs will
greatly enhance mid-week, resulting in a highly amplified pattern
with troughing to the west and strong ridging across the forecast
area late week.

Pleasant winter weather conditions with above normal temperatures
will hang on for another day across southcentral AZ. These tranquil
conditions are due to upper level heights holding steady with
westerly flow. Mid-level heights will fall going into Tuesday ahead
of a trough moving across the West Coast, leading to increased
cloudy conditions and rain potential Tuesday afternoon into early
Wednesday morning. However, the AR trajectories remain unfavorable
to cause any concerns for significant accumulations across the
forecast area during this time period. The current most likely
outcomes for this event (10th-90th percentile) across the Phoenix
metro is 0.00"-0.10", with NBM probabilities giving a 50-60% chance
of zero accumulations. The latest WPC QPF storm totals remain under
0.10" across southcentral AZ, with the highest amounts in exceedance
of 0.10" reserved for Joshua Tree NP (generally between 0.25"-
0.50").

Beyond Tuesday, ensemble guidance remains in excellent agreement on
the mid to upper level pattern through the end of the week.
Temperatures will almost certainly (to at least the 95th percentile)
remain below normal due to the eastward passage of the trough axis
on Wednesday, ushering in post-frontal 850 mb temperatures of 5-8C.
Building heights going into late week will result in temperatures
quickly exceeding normal as early as Thursday and continue into the
weekend.

Looking into the extended, the Day 5 cluster analysis shows deep
troughing developing across the West Coast, with notable
amplification differences. However, dry conditions should persist
across the forecast area through Saturday. The Day 6 & 7 cluster
spread is greater, with deeper troughing solutions certainly
bringing in measurable precipitation to the forecast area, while the
more progressive solutions resulting in zero accumulations. At this
time, the clusters are leaning more towards a wetter solution, so
will have continue to monitor how the guidance trends as this
potential scenario gets closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No significant weather issues should exist through Tuesday afternoon
under periods of increasing thick, high cloud decks. The traditional
afternoon westerly wind switch in the Phoenix metro may not fully
occur with a light and variable character more likely. A southerly
component will be more preferred in SE CA with oscillations between
SE and SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather conditions will continue through today, under partly to
mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures today will remain at or slightly
above normal, with afternoon MinRH's in the low 20s to mid 30s
across the lower deserts. An influx of moisture tomorrow will raise
the MinRH's into the 30-40% range, but chances of wetting rains will
remain limited to 10-30% across southcentral AZ Tuesday into
Wednesday. A return to drier and warmer conditions are expected for
late week. Increased potential for wetting rains returns late into
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Young