Wind Advisory 19, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
210 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
High pressure is beginning to exert its dominance over the region
and this is quite evident when looking at visible satellite imagery
this afternoon which shows maybe a few clouds across a good portion
of the Great Basin. Temperatures have warmed quickly into the 80s
region-wide with afternoon highs likely to reach into the lower 90s
across much of the Snake Plain, eastern Magic Valley and across the
desert perhaps making it into the Sun Valley region as well. These
temps will seem pleasant compared to tomorrow's high temperatures
which will likely soar into the triple digits across a good chunk of
the lower valleys while reaching into the mid to upper 90s across
the Upper Snake Plain, Sun Valley region and into the Stanley and
Challis basins. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas
tomorrow and into the early part of the day on Monday. Winds
tomorrow will become a bit more elevated, especially across the
Central Mountains, nearing critical levels for fire weather concerns
but likely running just a bit shy. This will likely not be the case
however as we move into Monday. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.
Breakdown of upper ridge occurs Monday as fast moving shortwave
drives through PacNW across Idaho. There may be enough moisture
available in presence of mid and upper level jet to spark some
thunderstorm development across the region, but most convective
activity should be dry. Have added isolated thunder with gusty
wind mention for Monday afternoon and evening in areas aligned
with incoming feature, mainly orographic areas outside the Snake
Plain. Winds remain main concern Monday. NBM Probabilities favor
afternoon speeds above 25mph but below 40mph, which would support
Wind Advisory headlines. Temperatures do slide a little behind
frontal boundary associated with shortwave passage, but coolest
temperatures dont materialize until Tuesday under influence of
near zonal flow. Upper ridge rebounds Wednesday through the
remainder of the extended as four-corners high strengthens. High
confidence in temperatures climbing into next weekend with GFS and
ECMWF ensembles trending towards triple digits. Blend holds just
short but quite close for now especially Friday and Saturday. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z Saturday through 18Z Sunday
VFR conditions continue under influence of dry high pressure.
Locally breezy west/southwest winds decrease this evening turning
downvalley or variable generally below 5kts towards sunrise.
Similar diurnal conditions exist for Sunday. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry high pressure will remain in place through the weekend keeping
temperatures warm and afternoon humidities low. Winds across the
central mountains will be a touch breezy and we may flirt with Red
Flag criteria for a brief period but doesn't look overly widespread
enough to justify an hazard issuance. On Monday, a mostly dry cold
front will move through the area bringing moderate to strong winds
regionwide. Latest forecast shows RHs staying above critical levels
across a good portion of the region now, generally around 20% so
have held off on a Fire Weather watch, for now. Expected widespread
wind gusts between 30 to 50 mph, locally stronger around the
Arco/Mud Lake Desert region. A Fire Weather Watch / Red Flag Warning
may still be needed on later forecast packages. A few isolated dry
thunderstorms will also be possible particularly in the mountains
Monday afternoon given sufficient instability and moisture with the
front but coverage should remain fairly limited.

Cooler temperatures fill in behind the front returning to highs in
the 80s to low 90s as near critical afternoon humidities continue.
Zonal flow will transition to being out of the southwest for
Wednesday as temperatures see a warming trend through the remainder
of next week as conditions remain dry. May see an isolated chances
for afternoon convection later in the week but the latest forecast
blend shows conditions remaining dry with afternoon breezy winds
each day. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 AM MDT Monday for IDZ051>059-
075.

Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for
IDZ068-070>073.

&&