Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1254 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
As a warm front lifts northward through our area overnight,
weak low pressure will arrive from the west. A cold front then
crosses our area during Tuesday, followed by high pressure
Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front is then scheduled to move
through by later Friday with high pressure mainly in place
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface low pressure was located in central Pennsylvania around
midnight with a warm front extending east southeastward across
southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. The low will
drift to the east and it will continue to pull the warm front to
the north. Meanwhile, a mid level short wave will lift
northeastward over our region. As a result, the potential for
showers and thunderstorms will continue, especially for areas
along and to the north of the warm front.

Based on the latest guidance, we have discontinued the Flood
Watch for northern Delaware and southern New Jersey. The
remainder of the Flood Watch for flash flooding remains in
effect through the night and as LLJ strengthens and moves north
and east towards the area expect more rounds of showers and
embedded storms to arrive. The heaviest precip after this time
looks to be near if not north of the I-95 corridor where rain
amounts could still be 1 to 2+ inches in spots due in part to
PWATs rising to 2 to 2.5 inches. This makes the forecast quite
tricky as some of the models have backed off on widespread
heavier rain totals but given PWATs this high, it won't take
much to produce very heavy rain capable of dropping a quick 2
inches of precip within an hour or so. And if any training
occurs this could quickly become a major problem, especially if
it were to set up in an urban area like Philly. Severe threat
still on the table but overall this appears to have diminished
some as the instability moving in overnight may be mainly aloft.
But given the strengthening dynamics with strongly veered low
level winds, we still can't rule out rotating storms that could
become tornadic should they be able to tap into any surface
based instability.

The storms should eventually move out toward morning as the
warm front lifts north of the area. This will put the area in
the system's warm sector leading to a very warm and muggy night.
Outside of the highest elevations of the Poconos, don't expect
lows to get below the low to mid 70s with the continued warm
advection behind the warm front and thick cloud coverage.

We will see a break in the precip Tuesday morning as we remain
in the open warm sector. Dewpoints look high, increasing the
heat index into values in the mid to upper 90s across the
region, resulting in another sticky and humid day. The upper low
will slide east through the day before eventually absorbing
back into the flow Tuesday night. Cloud coverage will hang
around through the first part of the day before decreasing from
south to north in the early afternoon. This will allow for
destabilization in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold
front which will reinvigorate another round of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, some of which again
may be strong to severe. SPC maintains a slight risk for
Delmarva and Southern NJ and a marginal risk covering SE PA and
the rest of NJ. Recent runs of the CAMs have continued to
indicate Delmarva as the primary region of concern. Forecast
soundings show steep low level lapse rates, 1000-1500 J/kg of
CAPE, and effective shear values around 40 kt. With the
southwest to northeast orientation of the cold front accompanied
by the southwest to northeast unidirectional flow through the
column, the storms are likely to grow upscale and favor a linear
mode. As a result, the primary hazard is damaging wind gusts,
though wouldn't rule out some localized flooding concerns as WPC
has most of Delmarva and the southeast half of New Jersey in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday and Wednesday will be dominated by a weakening
positive-tilt upper-level trough. At the surface, a boundary
should be offshore however it may stall nearby as the trough
weakens aloft and a ridge is well to our east.

As the cold front moves through Tuesday evening, some showers
and thunderstorms are expected especially from about the I-95
corridor on south and eastward. Some storms could produce strong
winds especially across southern New Jersey and Delmarva. As
the forcing for ascent weakens with time, convection is expected
to weaken and then dissipate. In the wake of the front, surface
dew points will lower some and therefore turning a bit less
humid. Surface high pressure then starts to build in during
Wednesday, however some troughing aloft will linger and this
could focus a shower or storm. Given enough drying taking place
on Wednesday, opted to keep the forecast dry.

As we go through Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to
be shifting eastward from the Midwest, Great Lakes and adjacent
Canada. If the timing of this feature is slower, than another
dry day results however some guidance is a little faster with
even some interaction with a potentially westward moving
baroclinic zone initially offshore. If the latter would occur,
increasing moisture and even some forcing for ascent could
result in some convection during the afternoon and evening
especially closer to the coast. Given the uncertainty with the
details, just included slight chance PoPs (20 percent) for
coastal areas in the afternoon which then expand inland at
night. The dew points are forecast to be on the increase once
again Thursday and therefore a more humid day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Summary...Some cooling and less humid air to start the weekend
then potentially warmer and more humid into early next week.

Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough is forecast to pivot
across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions Friday, however
this trough may persist along the East Coast through Saturday. A
building ridge across the center of the nation may then start
expanding eastward some. At the surface, a cold front moves
through by later Friday, then high pressure may remain in our
vicinity Saturday into early next week.

For Friday...An upper-level trough swings across the Northeast
and northern Mid-Atlantic regions, and this will drive a cold
front across our region. While some convection cannot be ruled
out ahead of and with the cold front, the main forcing for
ascent may end up lifting to our north which is closer to the
core of the upper-level trough. For now, opted to keep mainly
slight chance PoPs (20 percent) in the forecast. It will be warm
and humid ahead of the front, then drier air will start to
arrive at night along with a clearing sky.

For Saturday...Most of the guidance maintains the southwestern
portion of the aforementioned upper-level trough across our area
which keeps cyclonic flow over our area. At the surface, high
pressure is forecast to be building in and a cooler and less
humid air mass is expected to accompany it. This will result in
a dry and more comfortable day.

For Sunday and Monday...A large ridge is forecast to continue
building across the central part of the nation and some guidance
shows it trying to expand some toward our area. However, a
trough or closed low centered near the Canadian Maritimes may
prevent the ridge from sliding all that much eastward, with our
area under a northwest flow. Heights are forecast to build some
given the overall trough shifting farther to our northeast and
this should result in temperatures increasing. The details
however are of lower confidence given we will between an
expansive ridge and a closed low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight (through 12z)...Sub-VFR conditions likely with
showers and thunderstorms. Have maintained a VCTS group for most
terminals continuing through the overnight hours. Expect
prevailing IFR CIGs overnight for all terminals with VIS holding
in the MVFR range outside of embedded heavier rain when VIS may
dip into IFR for a period of time. Southeasterly wind around
5-10 kt. Low confidence.

Tuesday...Gradually improving conditions with time from south
to north with a return to VFR likely for most sites by mid
afternoon. After this time a cold front invigorates another
round of showers and thunderstorms most likely for
KMIV/KACY/KILG when temporary sub- VFR restrictions are
possible. West to southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots. Low
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Some evening showers and thunderstorms with
local sub-VFR conditions possible especially along and south of
I-95, otherwise VFR. Southwest to west-northwest winds 5 knots
or less. Low confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming light and
variable at night. Moderate confidence.

Thursday...Mostly VFR. A small chance of a shower or
thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Winds becoming
southwest 5-10 knots. Low confidence.

Friday...Mostly VFR, however a shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. Southwest to west-northwest 10-15 knots with gusts
to 20 knots, diminishing at night. Low confidence.

Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds 5-10 knots. Moderate
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through Tuesday night. Showers and
thunderstorms overnight may bring heavy rainfall. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon.
Southeasterly winds tonight becoming Southwesterly on Tuesday at
10-15 kt. Seas 2-4 ft.

Outlook...

The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory
criteria Tuesday night through Saturday. However, some gusty
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Rip currents...

For Tuesday, winds turn southwesterly at 10-15 MPH. A medium
period southerly swell, with breaking waves 2 to 3 feet, will
result in a LOW risk for the development of rip currents at the
Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches.

For Wednesday, winds will start out west/northwest before
shifting to a more south/southeasterly direction. A medium
period southeasterly swell will be in place, though with
breaking waves only expected to be around 1 to 3 feet, have
elected to go with a LOW risk for the development of rip
currents at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...Brudy/Fitzsimmons/99
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Brudy/Fitzsimmons/Gorse
MARINE...Brudy/Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Hoeflich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

DEZ001-160259-
New Castle-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for New Castle County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002-160259-
Kent-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ003-160259-
Inland Sussex-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Sussex County
in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-160259-
Delaware Beaches-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of
Sussex County in Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ054-160259-
Carbon-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Carbon County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ055-160259-
Monroe-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Monroe County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ060-160259-
Berks-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Berks County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ061-160259-
Lehigh-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lehigh County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ062-160259-
Northampton-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northampton County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ070-160259-
Delaware-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware County in Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ071-160259-
Philadelphia-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Philadelphia County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ101-160259-
Western Chester-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Chester County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ102-160259-
Eastern Chester-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Chester County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ103-160259-
Western Montgomery-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Montgomery County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ104-160259-
Eastern Montgomery-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Montgomery County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ105-160259-
Upper Bucks-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Bucks County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ106-160259-
Lower Bucks-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Bucks County in
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ001-160259-
Sussex-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Sussex County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ007-160259-
Warren-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Warren County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ008-160259-
Morris-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Morris County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ009-160259-
Hunterdon-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Hunterdon County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ010-160259-
Somerset-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Somerset County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ012-160259-
Middlesex-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middlesex County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ013-160259-
Western Monmouth-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Monmouth County in New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ014-160259-
Eastern Monmouth-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Monmouth County in New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ015-160259-
Mercer-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Mercer County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ016-160259-
Salem-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Salem County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ017-160259-
Gloucester-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gloucester County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ018-160259-
Camden-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Camden County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ019-160259-
Northwestern Burlington-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Burlington County in
New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ020-160259-
Ocean-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Ocean County
in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ021-160259-
Cumberland-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cumberland County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ022-160259-
Atlantic-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for inland portions of Atlantic
County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ023-160259-
Cape May-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cape May County excluding the
Atlantic coast in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ024-160259-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal portions of
Cape May County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ025-160259-
Coastal Atlantic-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Atlantic
County in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ026-160259-
Coastal Ocean-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for coastal portions of Ocean County
in New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ027-160259-
Southeastern Burlington-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Burlington County in
New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ012-160259-
Kent MD-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Kent County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ015-160259-
Queen Annes-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Queen Annes County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Several instances of flooding are possible, especially in urban and
poor-drainage areas and near vulnerable small creeks and streams.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ019-160259-
Talbot-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Talbot County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MDZ020-160259-
Caroline-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Caroline County in Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-160259-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upper Delaware Bay.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ431-160259-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for lower Delaware Bay.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ450-160259-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Monmouth County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ451-160259-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Ocean County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ452-160259-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Atlantic County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ453-160259-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Cape May County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ454-160259-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to the mouth of Delaware Bay out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ455-160259-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1059 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters
adjacent to Sussex County out 20 nm.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

Please go to weather.gov/phi/ehwo for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
804 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

DEZ003-MDZ019-020-150030-
Inland Sussex DE-Talbot MD-Caroline MD-
804 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Sussex
and southern Caroline Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 803 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hurlock, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seaford, Federalsburg, Bridgeville, Preston, Agner, Choptank and
Smithville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3865 7571 3869 7577 3868 7580 3870 7580
      3871 7584 3870 7590 3867 7595 3870 7599
      3887 7575 3883 7572 3883 7570 3871 7552
      3862 7570
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 233DEG 24KT 3867 7586

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1105 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Trenton Mercer Ai 40.27N 74.85W
08/13/2023                   Mercer             NJ   NWS Employee

            Delayed report from Sunday 8/13 - Large limb
            broken off tree along Willis Drive. Time
            estimated from surface obs.

&&

RCM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
128 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

NJZ008-010-150600-
Morris NJ-Somerset NJ-
128 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Morris
and northern Somerset Counties through 200 AM EDT...

At 128 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Far Hills, or near Somerville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Somerville, Bridgewater, Dover, Madison, Florham Park,
East Hanover, Chatham, Wharton, Rockaway, Morris Plains, Mendham,
Mountain Lakes, Peapack And Gladstone, Victory Gardens, Far Hills,
Parsippany, Martinsville, Millington and Basking Ridge.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 27 and 39.
 Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 34 and 44.
 Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 15 and 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4079 7437 4076 7438 4075 7436 4073 7437
      4070 7442 4054 7463 4058 7471 4060 7472
      4062 7471 4064 7473 4094 7456 4083 7433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 214DEG 30KT 4066 7463

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Staarmann