Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
401 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will drift to the northeast tonight and
offshore of New England through Saturday, before moving into
the Canadian Maritimes into Sunday. Meanwhile, several surface
troughs will move across the area from the northwest over the
weekend. High pressure builds out of southeast Canada and into
the northeast states Monday through Tuesday, then shift into the
Mid Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday. There will still likely
be a surface boundary west of the area for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Other than our southern coastal zones, the high-impact threats
for the day are over. And that will be ending shortly. The
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for all of land-
based zones and most of our coastal zones.

Clouds and scattered showers will pivot into and linger across
the region through the evening and overnight. Our most southern
Delmarva zones and maybe even southern NJ, could see a bit more
activity into the evening hours as the showers and thunderstorms
over Virginia track northeastward. Thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. This is all in response to the mid-level low centered
over NY and PA. Combine today's rainfall and the lack of dry
air advection tonight, there could be some patchy fog. Overnight
lows will range from the mid to upper 50s, with some spots
staying above the 60 degree mark.

The center of the mid-level low will track eastward on
Saturday. But with the region remaining under cyclonic flow
combined with some instability, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected with the best chance across our
northern zones. Highs will range from around 70 across the
Poconos to the lower 80s Philadelphia southward, minus the
immediate coast. Winds will be noticeable at times with NW winds
gusting over 20 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night through Sunday night is expected to be the
driest period for much of the next several days. Low pressure is
expected to continue to slowly move northeast offshore of New
England Saturday night into Sunday, before moving into the
Canadian Maritimes later Sunday into Sunday night. While there
will be several short wave/vorticity impulses moving across the
area as they circle the mid-upper low to our northeast, there
will be limited moisture, so we are not expected any showers
during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Monday and Tuesday, high pressure begins to build southward
out of southeast Canada and across the northeast states. At the
same time, a surface trough is forecast to develop along and
west of the Applachians. Meanwhile, mid-upper level troughing
will be in place across the northeast as well, which will have
several short wave/vorticity impulses moving around the trough
as well. The combination of the lift from the surface trough and
the short waves aloft, along with an increase in humidity
across the area will allow for a chance of showers Monday into
Tuesday.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the high pressure will continue to
sag southward and make its way into the Mid Atlantic states.
Meanwhile, several short wave/vorticity impulses could impact
the area again as the flow aloft turns more north to northeast
as the mid/upper low moves eastward and ridging aloft moves
across the Great Lakes. There will continue to be a slight
chance of showers during this period with some enhanced moisture
and lift across the area.

By Friday, uncertainty increases with the forecast as models
differ in how they handle a potential low pressure system. All
models indicate an area of low pressure developing along the
north Gulf of Mexico during next week, but they differ in where
it goes later in the week. The GFS has the low drifting
westward, while the ECMWF and Canadian bring the low up the
east coast late in the week. We will stick with the NBM which
keeps a chance of showers through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...A mix of VFR and MVFR is expected. Isolated to scattered
showers, especially across the northern and western terminals. Can't
rule out some IFR in stratus and fog. Winds will generally be light
and variable, before picking up late out of the northwest around 5-
10 kt. Low confidence with the IFR potential, otherwise medium
confidence.

Saturday...Prevailing VFR. Sub-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Northwest winds around 10-15 kt with gusts near 20
kt. Medium confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night-Sunday night...VFR conditions expected. Northwest
winds 5-10 knots Saturday night-Sunday, shifting to northeast
by Sunday night. Wind will gust 15-20 knots Sunday.

Monday-Monday night...Generally VFR. Chance of showers/thunderstorms
which may briefly lower conditions. East to southeast winds 5-10
knots.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...Generally VFR. Chance of
showers/thunderstorms which may briefly lower conditions. East
to northeast winds 5-10 knots.

Wednesday...Generally VFR. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms
which may briefly lower conditions. East to southeast winds 5-10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt,
becoming Northwest. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt.
Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and thunderstorms north of Great
Egg Inlet.

Outlook...

Saturday night-Wednesday...Conditions are expected to remain
below advisory levels through the entire period, although winds
will gust around 20 knots at times.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A higher astronomical tide is anticipated the next few nights with
the coming New Moon on the 18th.

Friday Night's high tide has a chance to reach advisory
criteria along the NJ and DE coast and within the Delaware Bay.
Water levels should be lower within the Chesapeake Bay and tidal
Delaware River, but some spotty minor flooding cannot be ruled
out.

Coastal flooding concerns will likely continue into the weekend.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...Kruzdlo
SHORT TERM...Robertson
LONG TERM...Robertson
AVIATION...Kruzdlo/Robertson
MARINE...Kruzdlo/Robertson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
311 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ENE Lewes             38.78N 75.12W
06/16/2023  M39 MPH          ANZ431             DE   Other Federal

            34 knot thunderstorm wind gust at the Lewes
            marine station.

&&

Gorse

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
313 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SSW North Cape May    38.97N 74.96W
06/16/2023  M40 MPH          ANZ431             NJ   Other Federal

            35 knot thunderstorm wind gust at the Cape
            May marine station.

&&

Gorse

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Wagontown               40.02N 75.84W
06/16/2023                   Chester            PA   Dept of Highways

            Downed tree in wires on Hibernia Road. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

Gorse

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
405 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

DEZ003-004-162030-
Inland Sussex DE-Delaware Beaches DE-
405 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Sussex
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 404 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dagsboro, or 12 miles southeast of Georgetown, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millsboro, Dagsboro, Millville, Long Neck, Ocean View, Frankford and
South Bethany.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 7527 3856 7531 3868 7507 3853 7499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 250DEG 15KT 3855 7524

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MLB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
413 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     Hail             Dagsboro                38.55N 75.25W
06/16/2023  M0.25 inch       Sussex             DE   Public

&&

Gorse

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
429 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

DEZ003-004-162115-
Inland Sussex DE-Delaware Beaches DE-
429 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Sussex
County through 515 PM EDT...

At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dagsboro, or 12 miles southeast of Georgetown, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millsboro, Selbyville, Dagsboro, Millville, Henlopen Acres, Long
Neck, Ocean View, Frankford, South Bethany and Dewey Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 7530 3857 7537 3874 7507 3853 7494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 243DEG 14KT 3855 7525

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MLB