Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region tonight before moving offshore
on Sunday. Several weak aves of low pressure will pass through the
region Sunday night through Tuesday. High pressure returns for the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper low well to the east is sending one last lobe of
upper energy across the Middle Atlantic this afternoon, as
another round of scattered showers and isolated tstms has
developed across the CWA cells are generally moving slowly SE.
These showers will continue into the early evening before
diminishing. After that, partly cloudy are expected for most
areas. Fog will probably develop across the areas that received
showers today and could fill in somewhat overnight. We'll
continue with what was in there already with few changes.

The high pressure and upper ridge will begin to team up across
the region for the weekend. We expect nice weather for Saturday
with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures. Highs
should climb into the upper 60s/low 70s region-wide. Winds will
be mostly Northwest or North at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure passes over the area Saturday night. Although
conditions will be quiet, there will be some mid-level
troughiness with some shortwave energy passing through the
region. Although precip is not expected, there may be enough
mid-level clouds to keep radiational cooling conditions from
truly developing. As a result, big question is how low
temperatures get Saturday night and Sunday morning. For now,
will opt for an NBM/NBM10 blend and err on the colder side of
guidance, as MAV MOS guidance is somewhat reasonable with lows
in the mid 40s to low 50s, and MET MOS guidance is warmer with
lows generally in the 50s. One thing to watch for is if it ends
up on the colder side of guidance, then patchy ground fog is
possible.

With high pressure offshore, return flow sets up, and warm air
advection will be underway for Sunday. It will turn warmer with
increasing low level moisture. Highs should get well in the 70s,
possibly close to 80 in some spots in Delmarva. Most of Sunday
should be dry, but low pressure approaches late in the day,
bringing a chance of showers, but the best timing for any
showers will be Sunday night. There may be enough instability
for a few thunderstorms, but convection looks to be isolated.

Showers depart Monday morning. Monday should be a decent day
until another wave of low pressure approaches from the west late
in the day, bringing another chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. It will be warm again on Monday with highs well
in the 70s.

Will note that most rainfall will be light with generally
1/10th inch or less QPF during this timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper trough with closed low will be over Newfoundland and
Labrador Monday evening and will continue to depart Monday
night. Meanwhile, surface low pressure passes through the region
Monday night, followed by another area of low pressure Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday evening. Showers will be likely over
the area during this time, tapering off Tuesday night. With a
westerly flow, temperatures will be fairly warm, so this may
yield enough instability for at least isolated thunderstorms
during this time. The back edge of a trough with shortwave
energy may spark off some additional showers early Wednesday.

High pressure then returns for the end of next week. Conditions
will be dry with a warming trend going into the end of the
week, and temperatures gradually rising to above normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion if for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

thru evening... Mostly VFR but scattered showers with lower
CIGS/VSBYS possible. Light winds, mostly E to SE. Medium confid
overall.

Tonight... Scattered showers diminishing after 00Z/01Z. VFR
expected for the most part, but patchy fog with lower VSBYS
expected after 04Z/06Z lasting until dawn. Medium confid in fog
VSBY and timing.

Saturday... VFR expected. Some Sct diurnal Cu/Sc expected.
Light West to Northwest winds. High confid.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR. LGT/VRB winds. High confidence.

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR with the potential for sub-
VFR in SHRA late Sunday night. SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming
W-NW Sunday night. Moderate confidence.

Monday through Monday night...VFR Monday, then SHRA developing
Monday afternoon and Monday night with sub-VFR conditions.
Isolated TSRA possible as well. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Sea
breezes possible at KACY/KMIV Monday afternoon, becoming N
Monday night. Low confidence.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA. NE
winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Low confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. N-NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the water later tonight and into
Saturday. Some upper energy is creating some scattered showers
this afternoon which will last into the early evening. A brief
tstm is possible. Winds will be rather light mostly from the
E/SE into the tonight and then more S/SW Saturday. Speeds will
be mostly under 10 knots, except in the vicinity of any
scattered showers. Fair weather is slated for Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Sub-SCA conditions. SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas
2 to 3 ft.

Sunday through Sunday night...Sub-SCA conditions. S-SW winds 5
to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

Monday through Monday night...Sub-SCA conditions. S-SW winds 10
to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. VSBY restrictions in showers Monday
night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-SCA conditions. E winds 10
to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. VSBY
restrictions in showers likely.

Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions. E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Lingering positive tidal surge departures around 1 foot above
the astronomical tide will result in the potential for areas of
minor coastal flooding, when combined with higher astronomical
tidal anomolies associated with the full moon today. The threat
for minor coastal flooding will be greatest with the high tide
Thursday night and Friday night, but some threat may linger into
the weekend. An increasing easterly, medium period swell late
this week from low pressure located offshore combined with light
background winds of varying direction will create conditions
that inhibit efficient draining of backbays and tidal waterways
along the Atlantic coast during low tide cycles.

Similar to last night, areas of the tidal Delaware River
between Philadelphia and Burlington are most likely to see some
minor coastal flooding with the high tide toward midnight
tonight, as well as the back bays around Ocean County. Peak
water levels will vary slightly, but should be pretty close to
what we saw last night. We will likely issue another coastal
flood advisory for portions of those aforementioned areas.

Coastal flooding is not anticipated along the eastern shore of
Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     PAZ071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     NJZ018-019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MPS/OHara
MARINE...MPS/OHara
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
325 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023

NJZ019-027-052015-
Northwestern Burlington NJ-Southeastern Burlington NJ-
325 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Burlington
County through 415 PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lumberton, or 17 miles south of Trenton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Medford, Lumberton, Mount Holly, Presidential Lakes Estates,
Pemberton, Wrightstown, Presidential Lakes, Jobstown, Leisuretowne,
Browns Mills, Medford Lakes, Pemberton Heights and Fort Dix.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 7483 4006 7469 3990 7453 3983 7478
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 328DEG 7KT 3997 7476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             CREAM RIDGE             40.14N 74.52W
05/05/2023  E0.25 INCH       MONMOUTH           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
401 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023

NJZ018-019-027-052045-
Northwestern Burlington NJ-Camden NJ-Southeastern Burlington NJ-
401 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Camden
and west central Burlington Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Medford, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Medford, Berlin, Chesilhurst, Atco, Marlton Lakes, Pine Hill, Medford
Lakes and Pine Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 7480 3967 7480 3975 7500 3994 7485
      3988 7470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 024DEG 10KT 3987 7481

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Iovino

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