Special Marine Warning 38, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will move across New England and
southeast Canada through Thursday as multiple surface boundaries
move across the Mid Atlantic region. Another low pressure will
move out of the Great Lakes and into the Mid Atlantic region
Friday, before drifting to the northeast through Saturday into
Sunday. High pressure tries to build into the Mid Atlantic
region Sunday, before a frontal boundary lifts northward toward
the area and stalls to our south into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The large stacked low pressure system will move slowly eastward
to the north of our area into tonight, with a cold front
crossing the region this afternoon and evening. Along the front,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed.
Instability is limited, however the storms have been producing
small hail and gusty winds. This activity will push to our
northeast and offshore after 6 PM as the front moves offshore,
then a quiet night is expected as high pressure settles to our
southwest. Southwest winds around 10-15 mph will shift to the
west behind the front with gusts up to 25 mph.

Lows tonight will be around 5 degrees below normal, mainly in
the 50s across the region. Skies will clear out tonight with
west winds around 5-10 mph.

For Thursday, a seasonable and dry day is expected. Warmer 850
mb temperatures and increasing thicknesses will result in warmer
high temperatures than today despite being in a post-frontal
regime. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 80s, though
dewpoints in the low to mid 50s will make for a more comfortable
warmth. Northwest to west winds will prevail around 10-15 mph
during the day with some scattered clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Another active day is possible again on Friday as an area of
low pressure is forecast to move out of the Great Lakes region
and move across the Mid Atlantic region. Meanwhile, a strong
short wave/vorticity impulse will move across the area as the
mid/upper low moves out of the Great Lakes and into New York
state. As the surface low moves into the area, there could be
some instability develop ahead of it. With enhanced moisture
across the area ahead of the system, the enhanced lift from the
short wave will lead to an increasing chance of showers through
the day, with a chance of thunderstorms. If any thunderstorms do
develop, the freezing level and wet-bulb 0 heights will be low
again that there could be some hail with any thunderstorms that
develop. Another concern will be the potential for heavy rain as
PW values increase to 1.25-1.50 inches for some areas. The low
will drift to the northeast on Friday night, but there could be
some showers linger into the night.

On Saturday, the low will continue to drift into southern New
England, before shifting to the northeast overnight Saturday as
the mid/upper low pulls away as well. There remains some
enhanced moisture across the area with PW values around 1 inch
or greater, which combined with multiple short wave/vorticity
impulses and a couple of surface troughs/boundaries will allow
for additional showers to develop during the day Saturday. Any
showers will dissipate during the evening hours as daytime
instability wanes and lift dissipates as the lows lift to the
northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Although the main system will depart on Sunday, there will be
another shortwave that rotates through the region during the
day. Although chances for showers will be lower than Saturday,
there is still at least a slight chance for showers and possibly
a thunderstorm, mainly in the northern areas.

A closed upper low dives into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on
Monday, and low pressure will organize and develop over the
eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. A warm front will develop
out ahead of this system and will lift towards the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast. The main system will meander over the Southeast
into Tuesday, but several waves of low pressure will spin off
this system and lift towards the Northeast during this time. For
now, will follow the NBM and carry chance PoPs for the Monday-
Tuesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through 00Z...Prevailing VFR. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue impacting the I-95 and coastal
terminals, then these will clear out by around 21Z. Showers and
storms may briefly reduce visibility to MVFR or IFR. Southwest
winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts becoming west behind a cold
front. High confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR. West winds diminishing to 5-10 kts. High
confidence.

Thursday...VFR with scattered clouds. West to northwest winds
around 10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR conditions expected early. Showers
possible later overnight which may lower conditions. South winds
5 knots or less. Moderate confidence.

Friday-Friday night...Sub VFR conditions expected with showers and
thunderstorms possible. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming west to
northwest overnight. Low confidence.

Saturday-Saturday night...Mostly VFR. Chance of showers which may
briefly lead to lower conditions. Northwest winds 10-15 knots, with
gusts 20-25 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday-Sunday night...Generally VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 knots
during the day, becoming easterly overnight. Moderate
confidence.

Monday-Monday night...Sub VFR conditions could develop during the
day and remain low into the overnight period. Southeast winds 5-10
knots. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM north of
Atlantic City. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be
accompanied by small hail, gusty winds, and higher seas through
this evening. Southwest to west winds will prevail around 10-15
kts through Thursday with some gusts near 20 kts possible. Seas
mainly 2-4 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday night-Monday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory
through the period, although winds will occasionally gust
around 20 knots and seas will approach 3-4 feet. Winds and waves
will be higher with any thunderstorm activity.

Rip Currents...

The building winds and seas point to a MODERATE risk for rip
currents for today across NJ with a continuation of LOW risk for
DE as winds will be to some degree offshore. LOW risk expected
Thursday as wind and seas will have settled down. Tstms possible
this afternoon.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450-
     451.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Robertson
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Robertson/Staarmann
MARINE...Robertson/Staarmann

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
419 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     Hail             Califon                 40.72N 74.84W
06/14/2023  E0.25 inch       Hunterdon          NJ   Public

&&

DeSilva

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
419 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

NJZ008-010-012-142030-
Morris NJ-Somerset NJ-Middlesex NJ-
419 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Morris,
central Somerset and northeastern Middlesex Counties through 430 PM
EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ringwood to Somerville. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Morristown, Somerville, Somerset, Edison,
Carteret, Madison, Middlesex, Florham Park, East Hanover, Lincoln
Park, Bound Brook, Manville, Kinnelon, Chatham, Boonton, Butler,
Rockaway and Morris Plains.

This includes the following highways...
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 11 and 13.
 Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 33 and 43.
 Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 38 and 48.
 Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 18, and
between mile markers 25 and 54.
 Garden State Parkway between mile markers 128 and 134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 7426 4049 7468 4105 7445 4102 7443
      4100 7430 4090 7427 4091 7434 4083 7433
      4076 7438 4075 7436 4067 7446 4066 7445
      4067 7441 4065 7440 4060 7446 4060 7422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 263DEG 33KT 4115 7427 4057 7459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
435 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     Hail             1 ESE Lumberton         39.97N 74.78W
06/14/2023  M0.50 inch       Burlington         NJ   Trained Spotter

            Hail measured to be about 1cm.

&&

DeSilva

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
439 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     Hail             1 SSW Center City       39.97N 75.14W
06/14/2023  E0.25 inch       Philadelphia       PA   Public

            Delayed report of Pea Size Hail in Olde
            Kensington section of Philadelphia.

&&

DeSilva