Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
257 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this
morning, producing locally heavy rain and gusty wind. Additional
scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with the
approach and passage of a cold front. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm is possible Sunday afternoon, before high pressure
returns dry and cooler weather for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A broken line of thunderstorms should continue to develop across
Ohio and northern West Virginia on an instability and theta E
gradient, and a warm advection area analyzed on the latest
mesoanalysis. A low level jet was also encroaching the region,
maintaining the thunderstorms.

An MCS across the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes region will
continue to track toward the region this morning, before turning
more to the ESE with the mean flow, and along the 1000-500mb
thickness pattern. This will further be maintained by the low
level jet support, upper level troughing, and sufficient MU CAPE
from 1000-2000 j/kg. The CAPE is progged to wane toward morning,
reducing the severe thunderstorm potential toward sunrise,
though a few severe storms are still possible especially early.
Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main hazards
expected. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch for areas roughly from I 79 and points west
this morning. PWATs from 1.8 to 2.0 inches should also result in
locally heavy rainfall, with a localized flood potential.

The MCS should exit the region by mid to late morning, with
subsidence behind it initially limiting additional shower and
thunderstorm potential. An additional shortwave, and its
associated surface cold front, is progged to track across the
Upper Ohio Valley region this afternoon and evening. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to again develop with the approach and
passage of the front. It appears the most favorable instability
(1000-2000 j/kg), and shear should remain near and south of the
Interstate 70 corridor, where the Storm Prediction Center
maintained a marginal outlook for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The front should complete its passage across the area tonight,
with shower and thunderstorm chances gradually diminishing
through the evening. Another weak shortwave could result in
isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday, through building
surface high pressure should limit this potential.

Generally dry, cooler, and less humid weather is then expected
through Monday night under building surface high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure under NW flow aloft should maintain dry
and seasonable weather through mid week. A shortwave trough, and
its associated surface cold front, is progged to advance from
the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region by late week,
returning shower and thunderstorm chances to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Convection across the area has dissipated. Clearing across the
area will allow for MVFR and IFR cigs/vis to begin to develop
through dawn. Winds remain up slightly and may keep fog from
developing for much of the area.

Convective models continue to suggest a line of thunderstorms
moving through the area from west to east in the 09-13Z time
frame. Tried to depict this progression in the TAFs and added a
TEMPO group. The storms will bring local restrictions to area
terminals and the potential for strong straight-line winds. VFR
conditions return through the remainder of the TAF period
following the line of storms after 14-16Z.

Expect afternoon diurnal cu across the area after the line
passed through earlier. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm
development will once again be expected so kept VCTS through the
afternoon and evening. Restrictions this afternoon will solely
be dependent on development of thunderstorms near or over the
terminals. Any convection will dissipate by or just after 00Z.

.OUTLOOK...
VFR should return Sunday through Tuesday under high pressure,
though early morning river valley fog is possible.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Shallenberger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

WVZ511>514-300715-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible today, mainly this afternoon
and early evening. Damaging wind, large hail, and localized flooding
are the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

OHZ059-068-069-PAZ021-029-031-WVZ002>004-012-021-509-510-300715-
Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Allegheny-Washington-Greene-Brooke-Ohio-
Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest
Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and large hail are possible
this morning. There is also a potential for localized flooding.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon with a
crossing cold front. Damaging wind and large hail are the main
hazards, along with localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PAZ073>078-300715-
Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-
Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Pennsylvania and
western Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible this morning, and again this
afternoon through early evening. Damaging wind and possibly large
hail are the main hazards. There is also a potential for localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-PAZ007-008-013-014-020-WVZ001-300715-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Mercer-Venango-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Hancock-
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and large hail are possible
this morning. There is also a potential for localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PAZ009-015-016-022-300715-
Forest-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Armstrong-
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania and
western Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Localized flooding and gusty wind are possible with thunderstorms
this morning, and again this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

WM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
219 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

OHZ039-048-057-058-290700-
Guernsey OH-Tuscarawas OH-Coshocton OH-Muskingum OH-
219 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GUERNSEY...
SOUTHEASTERN COSHOCTON...NORTHEASTERN MUSKINGUM AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM EDT...

At 219 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dresden, or 8 miles northeast of Zanesville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zanesville, Cambridge, Newcomerstown, New Concord, Byesville, North
Zanesville, Dresden, Conesville, Old Washington, Plainfield, Norwich,
Otsego, Drake, Boden, Salt Fork State Park, and Kimbolton.

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 168 and 187.
  Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 44 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3997 8200 4012 8208 4031 8153 3999 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0619Z 254DEG 20KT 4007 8193

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shallenberger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
225 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

OHZ039-048-057-058-290715-
Guernsey OH-Tuscarawas OH-Coshocton OH-Muskingum OH-
225 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GUERNSEY...
SOUTHEASTERN COSHOCTON...NORTHERN MUSKINGUM AND SOUTHWESTERN
TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM EDT...

At 225 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coshocton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coshocton, Newcomerstown, West Lafayette, Port Washington,
Conesville, Stone Creek, Plainfield, Chili, and Bakersville.

This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 58 and 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4014 8194 4029 8204 4045 8153 4019 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 260DEG 19KT 4020 8193

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shallenberger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
342 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

OHZ039>041-049-050-290830-
Jefferson OH-Tuscarawas OH-Harrison OH-Columbiana OH-Carroll OH-
342 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HARRISON...NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIANA...CARROLL AND TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 AM EDT...

At 342 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Philadelphia, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Philadelphia, Dover, Uhrichsville, Cadiz, Carrollton, Minerva,
Dennison, Strasburg, Sugarcreek, Augusta, Salineville, Gnadenhutten,
Malvern, Tuscarawas, Hopedale, Scio, Midvale, Mineral City, Jewett,
and Bergholz.

This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 75 and 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EDT for
east central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 8166 4065 8141 4065 8124 4071 8124
      4073 8115 4073 8109 4075 8109 4076 8105
      4053 8073 4023 8096 4022 8155 4041 8153
      4051 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 262DEG 28KT 4046 8147

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shallenberger