Severe Thunderstorm Warning 430, NWS Paducah, KY

086 
WWUS53 KPAH 292331
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

ILC003-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-MOC031-201-292345-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0430.000000T0000Z-230729T2345Z/
Union IL-Pulaski IL-Massac IL-Pope IL-Johnson IL-Williamson IL-
Saline IL-Alexander IL-Scott MO-Cape Girardeau MO-
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION...PULASKI...NORTHWESTERN MASSAC...NORTHERN
POPE...JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON...SOUTHWESTERN SALINE...
ALEXANDER...NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN CAPE GIRARDEAU
COUNTIES...

At 630 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 11 miles southeast of Carrier Mills to near New
Columbia to near Mounds, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Vienna, Dongola, Tamms, Kelso, Karnak, Cape Girardeau
Airport, Horseshoe Lake Conservation Area, New Columbia, Dixon
Springs, Olive Branch, Ullin, Thebes, Olmsted, Stonefort, Cypress,
New Burnside, New Grand Chain, Pulaski and Buncombe.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 in Illinois between Mile Markers 8 and 25.
 Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 9 and 25.
 Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 88 and 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay 
away from windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 3724 8961 3742 8905 3769 8871 3760 8839
      3728 8880 3722 8895 3723 8900 3718 8906
      3707 8937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 295DEG 32KT 3754 8853 3733 8882 3718 8922 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RJP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
320 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

All eyes are on the MCS approaching the STL metro area. It will
have a difficult time developing southward due to a lack of shear,
although the airmass across southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois has recovered from this morning's convection. The best
bet at this time is that this convection will lose some of its
organization as it moves east southeast along the I-64 corridor
through the early evening. Damaging winds would be the main
concern, especially if it maintains its current level of linear
organization.

After this system moves through, confidence in PoPs later tonight
through Sunday night is quite low. We will maintain some chance
PoPs mainly over southeast Missouri Sunday with the potential for
another disturbance to interact with some decent low-level
moisture left over there. If we can warm up ahead of it, some
more damaging winds would be possible. Sunday night should be dry.

Stayed close to the NBM guidance for temperatures, but ran with
the latest HRRR for temperature trends tonight, with the
convective outflow expected to progress through the area this
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

The Quad State will be under northwest flow aloft through the
period, but the upper ridge will once again attempt to build
closer to the region Thursday. The latest guidance has a
significant disturbance suppressing the ridge back to the
southwest Friday. At the surface, northeast or easterly flow will
be the rule Monday and Tuesday and then south winds will return
Wednesday which will lead to a warming and moistening trend.
Southwest winds will be strongest on Thursday and we may need a
Lake Wind Advisory. The heat and humidity may also require another
Heat Advisory.

As for convective potential, we will continue to be impacted by
multiple disturbances in the northwest flow aloft. Given the
baroclinic zone to our southwest early in the week, the PoPs are
focused over southeast Missouri Monday and Tuesday. As winds
become southerly and heights rise from the southwest, PoPs will be
focused over the northeast half of the region Wednesday and
Thursday. A period of very heavy rainfall with flash flooding
potential may develop at some point Tuesday night through
Thursday. PoPs will be more widespread with the frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
through the week, but should be most concerning the last half of
the week and especially with the cold front Friday.

The NBM temperature guidance was followed closely through the
period. Temperatures will be near or a bit below normal through
Wednesday and then climb well above normal Thursday and possibly
Friday depending on the frontal timing. They will fall back to
near normal levels Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

TSRA are mentioned in TEMPO groups this evening at KCGI and KPAH.
There could be some strong gusts if a site takes a direct hit. It
looks like the area of convection may glance by KMVN (VCTS) and
will stay south of KEVV and KOWB. A cold front will move through
the region tonight, but winds will be light overnight, so fog
could be an issue, especially where it gets wet in the late
afternoon or evening. A few westerly gusts to around 15kts will be
possible this afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
329 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-301000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
329 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 /429 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An area of thunderstorms will move east southeast across the Quad
State this evening. The greatest coverage is expected along the
I-64 corridor and eventually down into the Pennyrile region of
Kentucky. A few strong to severe storms may produce damaging
winds, to go along with torrential rainfall and deadly lightning.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire region through
7 PM. Refer to the product for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday, mainly over
southeast Missouri. A few severe storms with damaging winds cannot
be ruled out, but locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
primary concerns.

Daily thunderstorm chances will be focused over western portions
of the region early in the work week and then will shift to the
eastern half of the area Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front
Friday may provide a focus for more widespread thunderstorm
coverage. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out,
especially Wednesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon and this
evening, mainly over southern Illinois and the Evansville Tri
State.

DRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

ILZ084-085-088-MOZ076-086-087-292300-
Jackson IL-Union IL-Williamson IL-Bollinger MO-Cape Girardeau MO-
Perry MO-
531 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Union, southwestern
Williamson, southern Jackson, northeastern Bollinger, southeastern
Perry and Cape Girardeau Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 531 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Carbondale to near Grand Tower to near
Burfordville. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Carbondale, Carterville and Cambria around 535 PM CDT.
  Crainville, Energy and Cedar Lake Area around 540 PM CDT.
  Marion, Jackson, Anna, Jonesboro, Cobden and Gordonville around
  545 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Cape Girardeau.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 53 and 54.
 Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 96 and 121.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southern Illinois...and southeastern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 8914 3775 8893 3739 8925 3733 8943
      3734 8948 3731 8951 3725 8969 3742 9015
      3778 8952 3781 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 281DEG 44KT 3772 8918 3758 8946 3738 8985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RJP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
532 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Murphysboro             37.77N 89.34W
07/29/2023                   Jackson            IL   Emergency Mngr

            Road sign blown across road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
542 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Carterville             37.76N 89.08W
07/29/2023                   Williamson         IL   Trained Spotter

            Large trees down, wind estimated 70 to 80
            mph.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Du Quoin                38.00N 89.24W
07/29/2023                   Perry              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on a house.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
551 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSE Crainville        37.71N 89.04W
07/29/2023                   Williamson         IL   Public

            Large tree limbs down Crab Orchard
            campground.

&&

RST

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
552 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Gorham                  37.72N 89.48W
07/29/2023                   Jackson            IL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on a road in a park near Gorham.

&&