Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
209 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Main concerns in the short-term portion of the forecast is the gusty
winds/Wind Advisory into this evening along some lingering
convection across the Pennyrile. Temperatures will remain a good 20
degrees above normal through Thursday.

Tonight: A prefrontal trough moving through eastern portions of the
area early this evening, will keep the threat of showers and a few
thunderstorms over the Pennyrile Region, gradually shifting into
central Kentucky. It is still possible that some stronger winds may
mix down over those area and an isolated wind threat would be the
main concern. Otherwise, once the trough slides east of the area,
expect drier air to build in overnight, leading to a decrease in
cloud cover and any precipitation. The gusty winds will also diminish
by mid to late evening, so the Wind Advisory end time still looks
good. Overnight lows are only expected to drop into the 50s to
around 60. That is about 25-30 degrees above normal!

Thursday and Thursday night: A surface low is expected to shift from
central Illinois early in the day to far southern Ontario by late
Thursday afternoon. As this happens, a cold front will sweep through
the Quad State area from west to east by mid to late morning. The
front will pass through the area dry as there is very little
moisture available. The southerly winds ahead of the front will
allow for another warm start to the day across most of the CWA;
however, temperatures will gradually trend lower through the afternoon
from west to east. Some moisture will trend northward Thursday
nights southerly flow develops along the Gulf coast, but the
boundary just to the south of the area should be the main focus of
any rain or increased cloud cover. It is likely that some of the
cloud cover will work into southern portions of the CWA, but not
expecting any impacts. Highs Thursday will be in the 60s to low 70s,
warmest east and overnight lows will drop into the mid 20s to mid
30s. The warmer lows will be in the southern couple tiers of
counties, where cloud cover may develop.

Friday and Friday night: The aforementioned frontal boundary is
expected to drift slowly northward toward the Quad State area as the
flow aloft becomes more zonal. There are some hints that a couple
subtle waves may slide through the flow, which may lead to an
increase in cloud cover and eventually increase the chances for
rain. Stuck with some scattered rain showers for this time period
with temperatures running around 45 to 55 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

A frontal boundary will remain draped south of our region on
Saturday. Models continue to show weak disturbances in the upper
flow and along the front producing some light rain across all but
far northern portions of our region Saturday morning, then mainly
across portions of west Kentucky and southeast Missouri Saturday
afternoon and Saturday evening.

By late Saturday night into Sunday, the western portion of the
front will lift north as low pressure over the Central
Rockies/Central Plains begins to push east/northeast along the
front. The front lifting north will spread chances of rain back
across the entire PAH forecast. As the surface low moves through
Kansas into northern Missouri Sunday night into Monday, the
associated cold front will push through Missouri and on through
the PAH forecast area. Winds and rain chances will increase
significantly, with widespread rain and very gusty south to
southwest winds late Sunday night through Monday morning. Rain
will end from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday evening
behind the front, and winds will shift to the west and remain
pretty gusty through the overnight hours Monday.

The scenario Monday for winds looks similar to what we are dealing
with today. We may see wind gusts back in the 30-45 mph range,
but this is still pretty far out and much could change between
now and then. Just something to watch.

As for rainfall, totals in the half inch to three quarter inch
range seems reasonable. Models are not in that great of agreement
in just how much rain we will see over the weekend, and if the
front sinks farther south, it may reduce/eliminate rain chances at
times through Saturday night. Again, something to watch.

Beyond Monday evening, high pressure will build across the
Central U.S. Tuesday, with the center of the high moving east of
our region Tuesday night. We should see quite a bit of sunshine
Tuesday, then a bit more clouds will be possible Wednesday as a
system develops over the Plains.

Temperatures Saturday will be near to a little above normal, and
we will see a warming trend Saturday night through Monday as winds
shift back to the south. Temperatures by Sunday night and Monday
will again be an impressive 15 to 25 degrees above normal. We will
cool down behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday, but we will
still be well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

The main impacts with this TAF issuance will be gusty winds to
40kts this afternoon into this evening along with a line of
showers and a few thunderstorms. Some severe wind gusts to 60 mph
will be possible. Improving conditions can be expected later this
evening through Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /9 PM EST/ this evening for INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...KC

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