Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Paducah, KY

845 
WWUS53 KPAH 121122
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
522 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

KYC059-121132-
/O.CAN.KPAH.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230112T1130Z/
Daviess KY-
522 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3795 8691 3805 8700 3817 8680 3812 8681
      3810 8677 3808 8678 3806 8677 3804 8679
      3800 8677 3801 8680 3799 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1122Z 231DEG 45KT 3803 8686 

$$

INC147-121130-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230112T1130Z/
Spencer IN-
522 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CST
FOR NORTHEASTERN SPENCER COUNTY...

At 522 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Santa Claus, or
14 miles northeast of Rockport, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Spencer County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 8691 3805 8700 3817 8680 3812 8681
      3810 8677 3808 8678 3806 8677 3804 8679
      3800 8677 3801 8680 3799 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1122Z 231DEG 45KT 3803 8686 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Ongoing convective event is playing out, with just issued Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 15 in effect for western KY/far southern IL
until 5 AM. Steep lapse rates aloft combined with deep layer shear
and marginal instability for strong/svr potential, and warm
front's proximity as upper level jet approach/cranks up should
mean enhancing potential as we move toward sunrise. Helicity is
there for a few spinups as well, already seeing some of that
rotationally developing on radar.

After the morning round, the warm front lifts and then the low
pressure system races across with its cold front/passage. While
most of the storm activity will be tied to the warm
front/passage, there is still some residual instability in the
southeast this afternoon, before the upper trof can clear, so the
thunder risk may reinitiate briefly in our far southeast
accordingly.

The trof finally clears by mid evening, and strong cold advection,
already running from the afternoon, kicks into overdrive. It'll be
supportive of changing pcpn from liquid to frozen by 06z, but by
then, the bulk mrh is gone. An additional swing down of pva/2ndary
trof energy will draw in another sling of moisture, so we've
collaboratively drawn flurries in our east from late tonight into
early Friday. It's debatable a slight chance pop is warranted, as
some light qpf is generated, but that can be reevaluated later.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

A dry weekend is forecast as the aforementioned storm system
dives into the Southeast U.S. We're on the cold/dry side the
first half of the weekend, before the surface and upper ridges of
high pressure migrate overhead for the last half. Temperatures
respond accordingly, with seasonally chilly highs in the lower 40s
Saturday rebounding into the lower 50s Sunday. Similarly, lows in
the 20s Friday night and around 30 Saturday night moderate to the
40s Sunday night.

As the ridging shifts east by Monday, return flow will also draw
in the moisture as well as the warmth, and pops return in earnest.
They commence late Sunday night, end Tuesday morning, with peak
pops now categorical for Monday. This is in response to a fast
moving low pressure system that races from the Plains across and
to the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley in 36 hours time. Temps are mild, mid
and upper 50s/near 60 for highs Monday-Tuesday with lows in the
40s. Dew points peak w/peak pops Monday, in a ribbon of lower 50s.
Columnar moisture and pcpn efficiency suggests storm total
rainfall average qpf from 1/2-3/4", which is about a quarter inch
high side increase from this time last night, commensurate with
the pop increase.

There is a brief interlude between this early week system passage,
completed on Tuesday, and another Plains system incoming/making
passage later in the week. Little temperature contrast is seen in
the airmass save for the shift from wet to dry and wet again, as
pops return late Tuesday night and ramp up robustly on Wednesday.
We'll accept the NBM's likely category pops without argument, esp
with the potential there for another inch or better of rainfall
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Deteriorating flight conditions in active convection will result
in broad restrictions for both cigs/vsbys. Lower cigs, once set
in, will stick around, and strong northwest winds pickup during
the day as a strong cold front sweeps through the area. No better
than MVFR cigs look increasingly likely through the period save
for some sporadic, short-lived bouncing in the near term.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
448 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
448 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 /548 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms remain possible over western Kentucky this
morning, with heavy downpours, large hail, and a few damaging
wind gusts. A brief tornado can't be ruled out. A severe
thunderstorm watch is in effect for western Kentucky through 7 AM
CDT. Refer to the watch for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any severe weather directly to the NWS or
relay through their local media outlets.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
346 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 AM     HAIL             2 WNW SEBREE            37.62N 87.57W
01/12/2023  U1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

JGG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
347 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     HAIL             1 E LYNNVILLE           38.20N 87.30W
01/12/2023  U0.75 INCH       WARRICK            IN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&

JGG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
351 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 AM     HAIL             1 SE CALVERT CITY       37.03N 88.34W
01/12/2023  U1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

JGG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 AM     HAIL             2 W PRINCETON           37.11N 87.91W
01/12/2023  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           KY   STORM CHASER

&&

JGG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     HAIL             2 NW MASONVILLE         37.69N 87.06W
01/12/2023  M0.88 INCH       DAVIESS            KY   PUBLIC

&&

JGG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
426 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 AM     HAIL             2 WNW SEBREE            37.62N 87.57W
01/12/2023  U1.75 INCH       WEBSTER            KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: GOLF BALL (1.75 IN.).

&&

JGG